View source for Inflation

{{Short description|Devaluation of money's purchasing power}}
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[[File:Annual inflation rate 2024.svg|thumb|upright=1.6|Annual inflation rate map (consumer prices, 2024, in %)<ref name="World Bank inflation">{{Cite web|url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG|title = The Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), World Bank Group, accessed July 2025}}</ref>
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[[File:UK and US 1989-present monthly CPI.svg|thumb|upright=1.6|UK and US monthly inflation rates from January 1989<ref>{{cite web |date=March 2022 |title=Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, March 2022 |url=https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fcpi%2Ftables%2Fsupplemental-files%2Fnews-release-table1-202203.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK |access-date=12 March 2022 |website=[[Bureau of Labor Statistics]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |date=13 April 2022 |title=CPIH Annual Rate 00: All Items 2015=100 |url=https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 |access-date=13 April 2022 |website=[[Office for National Statistics]] |archive-date=April 24, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220424051728/https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]

In [[economics]], '''inflation''' is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money.<ref>{{cite book |chapter= s.v. inflation |title= The Oxford English Dictionary: Being a Corrected Re-Issue of with An Introduction, Supplement and Bibliography of a New English Dictionary on Historical Principles |volume= 5 H-K |year= 1913 |place= Oxford |publisher= Clarendon Press |url= https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.99995/page/n5/mode/2up?view=theater |page= [https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.99995/page/n791/mode/2up?view=theater 267] |via= [[Internet Archive]] |access-date= 6 August 2025}}</ref><ref name=Romer>{{Harvnb|Romer|2019}}</ref>{{rp|579}} This increase is measured using a price index, typically a [[consumer price index]] (CPI).<ref>{{citation |title=What Is Inflation? |date=June 8, 2023 |url=https://www.clevelandfed.org/center-for-inflation-research/inflation-101/what-is-inflation-start |access-date=June 8, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210330131140/https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/center-for-inflation-research/inflation-101/what-is-inflation-get-started |publisher=Cleveland Federal Reserve |archive-date=March 30, 2021}}.</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm|title=Overview of BLS Statistics on Inflation and Prices: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics|publisher=Bureau of Labor Statistics|date=June 5, 2019|access-date=November 3, 2021|archive-date=December 10, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211210164020/https://www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Salwati |first1=Nasiha |last2=Wessel |first2=David |date=June 28, 2021 |title=How does the government measure inflation? |publisher=Brookings Institution |url=https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/06/28/how-does-the-government-measure-inflation/ |url-status=live |access-date=November 3, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211115162420/https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/06/28/how-does-the-government-measure-inflation/ |archive-date=November 15, 2021}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14419.htm|title=The Fed – What is inflation and how does the Federal Reserve evaluate changes in the rate of inflation?|website=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System|date=September 9, 2016|access-date=November 3, 2021|archive-date=July 17, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210717231718/https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14419.htm|url-status=live}}</ref> When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the [[purchasing power]] of money.<ref>[http://www.sedlabanki.is/?PageID=195 Why price stability?] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081014031836/http://www.sedlabanki.is/?PageID=195 |date=October 14, 2008}}, Central Bank of Iceland, Accessed on September 11, 2008.</ref><ref>Paul H. Walgenbach, Norman E. Dittrich and Ernest I. Hanson, (1973), Financial Accounting, New York: Harcourt Brace Javonovich, Incorporated. P. 429. "The Measuring Unit principle: The unit of measure in accounting shall be the base money unit of the most relevant currency. This principle also assumes that the unit of measure is stable; that is, changes in its general purchasing power are not considered sufficiently important to require adjustments to the basic financial statements."</ref> The opposite of CPI inflation is [[deflation]], a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the '''inflation rate''', the annualized percentage change in a general [[price index]].<ref name=Mankiw2002>{{Harvnb|Mankiw|2002}}</ref>{{rp|22–32}}

Changes in inflation are widely attributed to fluctuations in [[Real versus nominal value (economics)|real]] [[demand]] for goods and services (also known as [[demand shock]]s, including changes in [[fiscal policy|fiscal]] or [[monetary policy]]), changes in available supplies such as during [[energy crisis|energy crises]] (also known as [[supply shock]]s), or changes in inflation expectations, which may be self-fulfilling.<ref name="Blanchard">{{Harvnb|Blanchard|2021}}</ref> Moderate inflation affects economies in both positive and negative ways. The negative effects would include an increase in the [[opportunity cost]] of holding money; uncertainty over future inflation, which may discourage investment and savings; and, if inflation were rapid enough, shortages of [[Good (economics)|goods]] as consumers begin [[Hoarding (economics)|hoarding]] out of concern that prices will increase in the future. Positive effects include reducing unemployment due to [[Nominal rigidity|nominal wage rigidity]],<ref name=Mankiw2002/>{{rp|238–255}} allowing the central bank greater freedom in carrying out [[monetary policy]], encouraging loans and investment instead of money hoarding, and avoiding the inefficiencies associated with deflation.

Today, most economists favour a low and steady rate of inflation. Low (as opposed to zero or [[Deflation|negative]]) inflation reduces the probability of economic [[recessions]] by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn and reduces the risk that a [[liquidity trap]] prevents [[monetary policy]] from stabilizing the economy while avoiding the costs associated with high inflation.<ref name="aeaweb.org">{{Cite journal |last=Svensson |first=Lars E. O. |date=December 2003 |title=Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others |journal=Journal of Economic Perspectives |language=en |volume=17 |issue=4 |pages=145–166 |doi=10.1257/089533003772034934 |s2cid=17420811 |issn=0895-3309|doi-access=free }}</ref> The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given to [[central bank]]s that control monetary policy, normally through the setting of interest rates and by carrying out [[open market operation]]s.<ref name=Blanchard/>

== Terminology ==
The term originates from the Latin ''inflare'' (to blow into or inflate). Conceptually, inflation refers to the general trend of prices, not changes in any specific price. For example, if people choose to buy more cucumbers than tomatoes, cucumbers consequently become more expensive and tomatoes less expensive. These changes are not related to inflation; they reflect a shift in tastes. Inflation is related to the value of currency itself. When currency was linked with gold, if new gold deposits were found, the price of gold and the value of currency would fall, and consequently, the prices of all other goods would become higher.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.vox.com/cards/inflation-definition-and-explanation/inflation-explanation|title=What is inflation? – Inflation, explained |date=July 25, 2014|work=Vox|access-date=September 13, 2014|archive-date=August 4, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140804103626/http://www.vox.com/cards/inflation-definition-and-explanation/inflation-explanation|url-status=live}}</ref>

===Classical economics===
By the nineteenth century, economists categorised three separate factors that cause a rise or fall in the price of goods: a change in the ''[[Value (economics)|value]]'' or production costs of the good, a change in the ''price of money'' which then was usually a fluctuation in the [[commodity]] price of the metallic content in the currency, and ''currency depreciation'' resulting from an increased supply of currency relative to the quantity of redeemable metal backing the currency. Following the proliferation of private [[banknote]] currency printed during the [[American Civil War]], the term "inflation" started to appear as a direct reference to the ''currency depreciation'' that occurred as the quantity of redeemable banknotes outstripped the quantity of metal available for their redemption. At that time, the term inflation referred to the [[devaluation]] of the currency, and not to a rise in the price of goods.<ref>{{cite journal|first=Michael F.|last=Bryan|url=https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/economic-commentary-archives/1997-economic-commentaries/ec-19971015-on-the-origin-and-evolution-of-the-word-inflation.aspx|publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary|date=October 15, 1997|title=On the Origin and Evolution of the Word 'Inflation'|journal=Economic Commentary|issue=October 15, 1997|access-date=May 22, 2017|archive-date=October 28, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211028064428/https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/economic-commentary-archives/1997-economic-commentaries/ec-19971015-on-the-origin-and-evolution-of-the-word-inflation.aspx|url-status=live}}</ref> This relationship between the over-supply of banknotes and a resulting [[depreciation]] in their value was noted by earlier classical economists such as [[David Hume]] and [[David Ricardo]], who would go on to examine and debate what effect a currency devaluation has on the price of goods.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Blaug |first=Mark |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=4nd6alor2goC&dq=bullionist+inflation&pg=PA128 |title=Economic Theory in Retrospect |date=1997-03-27 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |isbn=978-0-521-57701-4 |page=129 |language=en |quote=...this was the cause of inflation, or, to use the language of the day, 'the depreciation of banknotes.'}}</ref>

=== Related concepts ===
Other economic concepts related to inflation include: [[deflation]]{{snd}}a fall in the general price level;<ref>{{Cite news |last=Ashford |first=Kate |date=2023-11-16 |title=What Is Deflation? Why Is It Bad For The Economy? |url=https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-deflation/#:~:text=Deflation%20Definition,in%20prices%20across%20the%20economy.https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-deflation/#:~:text=Deflation%20Definition,in%20prices%20across%20the%20economy. |access-date=2024-01-30 |work=Forbes Advisor |language=en-US}}</ref> [[disinflation]]{{snd}}a decrease in the rate of inflation;<ref>{{Cite web |title=Disinflation: Definition, How It Works, Triggers, and Example |url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=Investopedia |language=en}}</ref> [[hyperinflation]]{{snd}}an out-of-control inflationary spiral;<ref>{{Cite web |title=Hyperinflation |url=https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/hyperinflation/ |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=Corporate Finance Institute |language=en-US}}</ref> [[stagflation]]{{snd}}a combination of inflation, slow economic growth and high unemployment;<ref>{{Cite web |title=What Is Stagflation, What Causes It, and Why Is It Bad? |url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=Investopedia |language=en}}</ref> [[reflation]]{{snd}}an attempt to raise the general level of prices to counteract deflationary pressures;<ref>{{Cite web |title=What Is Reflation? |url=https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-reflation-5210962 |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=The Balance |language=en}}</ref> [[asset price inflation]]{{snd}}a general rise in the prices of financial assets without a corresponding increase in the prices of goods or services;<ref>{{Cite web |title=Asset-Price Inflation vs. Economic Growth |url=https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032715/what-difference-between-assetprice-inflation-and-economic-growth.asp |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=Investopedia |language=en}}</ref> and [[agflation]]{{snd}}an advanced increase in the [[Food inflation|price for food]] and industrial agricultural crops when compared with the general rise in prices.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Agflation: What It Means, How It Works, Impact |url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/agflation.asp |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=Investopedia |language=en}}</ref>

More specific forms of inflation refer to sectors whose prices vary semi-independently from the general trend. "House price inflation" applies to changes in the [[house price index]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=UK House Price Index: November 2021 |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-november-2021 |access-date=2023-11-19 |website=GOV.UK |language=en}}</ref> while "energy inflation" is dominated by the costs of oil and gas.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Rubene |first1=Ieva |last2=Koester |first2=Gerrit |date=2021-05-06 |title=Recent dynamics in energy inflation: the role of base effects and taxes|journal=ECB Economic Bulletin |issue=3 |url=https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202103_04~0a0c8f0814.en.html |language=en}}</ref>

==History==
[[File:US Historical Inflation Ancient.svg|thumb|upright=1.6|US historical inflation (in blue) and deflation (in green) from the mid-17th century to the beginning of the 21st]]

===Overview===

Inflation has been a feature of history during the entire period when money has been used as a means of payment. One of the earliest documented inflations occurred in [[Alexander the Great]]'s empire 330 BC.<ref name=parkin>{{cite journal |last1=Parkin |first1=Michael |title=Inflation |journal=The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics |date=2008 |pages=1–14 |doi=10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_888-2|isbn=978-1-349-95121-5 }}</ref> Historically, when [[commodity money]] was used, periods of inflation and deflation would alternate depending on the condition of the economy. However, when large, prolonged infusions of gold or silver into an economy occurred, this could lead to long periods of inflation.

The adoption of [[fiat currency]] by many countries, from the 18th century onwards, made much larger variations in the supply of money possible.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Fiat Money: What It Is, How It Works, Example, Pros & Cons |url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiatmoney.asp |access-date=2024-01-30 |website=Investopedia |language=en}}</ref> Rapid increases in the [[money supply]] have taken place a number of times in countries experiencing political crises, producing [[hyperinflation]]s{{snd}}episodes of extreme inflation rates much higher than those observed in earlier periods of [[commodity money]]. The [[hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic]] of Germany is a notable example. The [[hyperinflation]] in Venezuela is the highest in the world, with an annual inflation rate of 833,997% as of October 2018.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Corina |first1=Pons |last2=Luc |first2=Cohen |last3=O'Brien |first3=Rosalba |title=Venezuela's annual inflation hit 833,997 percent in October: Congress |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuelas-annual-inflation-hit-833997-percent-in-october-congress-idUSKCN1NC2F9 |access-date=9 November 2018 |work=Reuters |date=7 November 2018 |archive-date=December 12, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211212194638/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuelas-annual-inflation-hit-833997-percent-in-october-congress-idUSKCN1NC2F9 |url-status=live }}</ref>

Historically, inflations of varying magnitudes have occurred, interspersed with corresponding deflationary periods,<ref name=parkin/> from the [[price revolution]] of the 16th century, which was driven by the flood of gold and particularly silver seized and mined by the Spaniards in Latin America, to the largest paper money inflation of all time in Hungary after World War II.<ref>{{cite book |last=Bernholz |first=Peter |url=https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9781784717629.00007.xml |title=Introduction |year=2015 |publisher=Edward Elgar Publishing |isbn=978-1-78471-763-6 |language=en-US |access-date=June 9, 2022 |archive-date=June 18, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210618191304/https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9781784717629.00007.xml |url-status=live }}</ref>

However, since the 1980s, inflation has been held low and stable in countries with independent [[central bank]]s. This has led to a moderation of the [[business cycle]] and a reduction in variation in most macroeconomic indicators{{snd}}an event known as the [[Great Moderation]].<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article1294376.ece |title=Welcome to 'the Great Moderation' |first=Gerard |last=Baker |work=The Times |date=2007-01-19 |publisher=Times Newspapers |location=London |issn=0140-0460 |access-date=15 April 2011 |archive-date=December 14, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211214175030/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/ }}</ref>

{{multiple image
 | align = right
 | direction = vertical
 | width = 350
 | header =
 | image1 = 
Fineness_of_early_Roman_Imperial_silver_coins.png
 | caption1 = Silver purity through time in early Roman imperial silver coins. To increase the number of silver coins in circulation while short on silver, the Roman imperial government repeatedly [[debasement|debased]] the coins. They melted relatively pure silver coins and then struck new silver coins of lower purity but of nominally equal value. Silver coins were relatively pure before Nero (AD 54–68), but by the 270s had hardly any silver left.
 | image2 = Decline_of_the_antoninianus.jpg
 | alt2 = 
 | caption2 = The silver content of Roman silver coins rapidly declined during the [[Crisis of the Third Century]].
}}

===Ancient Europe===

Alexander the Great's conquest of the [[Achaemenid Empire|Persian Empire]] in 330 BC was followed by one of the earliest documented inflation periods in the ancient world.<ref name=parkin/> Rapid increases in the quantity of money or in the overall [[money supply]] have occurred in many different societies throughout history, changing with different forms of money used.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Dobson |first=Roger |title=How Alexander caused a great Babylon inflation |newspaper=[[The Independent]] |date=January 27, 2002 |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/how-alexander-caused-a-great-babylon-inflation-671072.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110515070120/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/how-alexander-caused-a-great-babylon-inflation-671072.html |archive-date=May 15, 2011 |access-date=April 12, 2010 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite book  | last = Harl  | first = Kenneth W.  | author-link = Kenneth W. Harl  | title = Coinage in the Roman Economy, 300 B.C. to A.D. 700  | place = [[Baltimore]]  | publisher = [[The Johns Hopkins University Press]]  | year=1996  | isbn = 0-8018-5291-9  }}</ref> For instance, when silver was used as currency, the government could collect silver coins, melt them down, mix them with other, less valuable metals such as copper or lead and reissue them at the same [[Real versus nominal value (economics)|nominal value]], a process known as [[debasement]]. At the ascent of [[Nero]] as Roman emperor in AD 54, the [[denarius]] contained more than 90% silver, but by the 270s hardly any silver was left. By diluting the silver with other metals, the government could issue more coins without increasing the amount of silver used to make them. When the cost of each coin is lowered in this way, the government profits from an increase in [[seigniorage]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.mint.ca/royalcanadianmintpublic/RcmImageLibrary.aspx?filename=RCM_AR06_E.pdf |title=Annual Report (2006), Royal Canadian Mint, p. 4 |publisher=Mint.ca |access-date=May 21, 2011 |archive-date=December 17, 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081217200449/http://www.mint.ca/royalcanadianmintpublic/RcmImageLibrary.aspx?filename=RCM_AR06_E.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> This practice would increase the money supply but at the same time the relative value of each coin would be lowered. As the relative value of the coins becomes lower, consumers would need to give more coins in exchange for the same goods and services as before. These goods and services would experience a price increase as the value of each coin is reduced.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Shostak |first=Frank |date=2008-06-16 |title=Commodity Prices and Inflation: What's the Connection? |url=https://mises.org/library/commodity-prices-and-inflation-whats-connection |access-date=2023-11-19 |website=Mises Institute |language=en}}</ref> Again at the end of the third century AD during the reign of [[Diocletian]], the [[Roman Empire]] experienced rapid inflation.<ref name=parkin/>

===Ancient China===
[[Song dynasty]] China introduced the practice of printing paper money to create [[fiat currency]].<ref>{{cite book |author=von Glahn |first=Richard |title=Fountain of Fortune: Money and Monetary Policy in China, 1000–1700 |publisher=University of California Press |year=1996 |isbn=978-0-520-20408-9 |page=48}}</ref> During the Mongol [[Yuan dynasty]], the government spent a great deal of money fighting [[Mongol conquests|costly wars]], and reacted by printing more money, leading to inflation.<ref>{{cite book |author=Ropp |first=Paul S. |title=China in World History |publisher=Oxford University Press |year=2010 |isbn=978-0-19-517073-3 |page=82}}</ref> Fearing the inflation that plagued the Yuan dynasty, the [[Ming dynasty]] initially rejected the use of paper money, and reverted to using copper coins.<ref>{{cite book |author=Bernholz |first=Peter |title=Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships |publisher=Edward Elgar Publishing |year=2003 |isbn=978-1-84376-155-6 |pages=53–55}}</ref>

===Medieval Egypt===
During the [[Mali Empire|Malian]] king [[Mansa Musa]]'s [[hajj]] to [[Mecca]] in 1324, he was reportedly accompanied by a [[camel train]] that included thousands of people and nearly a hundred camels. When he passed through [[Cairo]], he spent or gave away so much gold that it depressed its price in Egypt for over a decade,<ref>{{Cite web |date=2006-05-24 |title=Mansa Musa |url=http://www.blackhistorypages.net/pages/mansamusa.php |access-date=2023-11-19 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060524015912/http://www.blackhistorypages.net/pages/mansamusa.php |archive-date=May 24, 2006 }}</ref> reducing its purchasing power. A contemporary Arab historian remarked about Mansa Musa's visit:

{{blockquote|Gold was at a high price in Egypt until they came in that year. The [[mithqal]] did not go below 25 [[dirham]]s and was generally above, but from that time its value fell and it cheapened in price and has remained cheap till now. The mithqal does not exceed 22 dirhams or less. This has been the state of affairs for about twelve years until this day by reason of the large amount of gold which they brought into Egypt and spent there [...].|sign=[[Chihab Al-Umari]]|source=Kingdom of Mali<ref>{{cite web |title=Kingdom of Mali&nbsp;– Primary Source Documents |url=http://www.bu.edu/africa/outreach/resources/k_o_mali/ |website=African studies Center |publisher=[[Boston University]] |access-date=30 January 2012 |archive-date=November 24, 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151124051633/http://www.bu.edu/africa/outreach/resources/k_o_mali/ |url-status=live }}</ref>}}

=== Medieval age and "price revolution" in Western Europe===

There is no reliable evidence of inflation in Europe for the thousand years that followed the fall of the Roman Empire, but from the [[Middle Ages]] onwards reliable data do exist. Mostly, the medieval inflation episodes were modest, and there was a tendency for inflationary periods were followed by deflationary periods.<ref name=parkin/>

From the second half of the 15th century to the first half of the 17th, Western Europe experienced a major inflationary cycle referred to as the "[[price revolution]]",<ref>[[Earl J. Hamilton]], ''American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain, 1501–1650'' Harvard Economic Studies, p. 43 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: [[Harvard University Press]], 1934).</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/ecipa/archive/UT-ECIPA-MUNRO-99-02.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090306002320/http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/ecipa/archive/UT-ECIPA-MUNRO-99-02.pdf |title=John Munro: ''The Monetary Origins of the 'Price Revolution':South Germany Silver Mining, Merchant Banking, and Venetian Commerce, 1470–1540'', Toronto 2003|archive-date=March 6, 2009}}</ref> with prices on average rising perhaps sixfold over 150 years. This is often attributed to the influx of gold and silver from the [[New World]] into [[Habsburg Spain]],<ref>{{cite book |author=Walton |first=Timothy R. |title=The Spanish Treasure Fleets |publisher=Pineapple Press |year=1994 |isbn=1-56164-049-2 |location=Florida, US |page=85 |language=en-us}}</ref> with wider availability of [[Silver coin|silver]] in previously [[Great Bullion Famine|cash-starved Europe]] causing widespread inflation.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=https://ideas.repec.org/p/bsl/wpaper/2007-12.html|title=The Price Revolution in the 16th Century: Empirical Results from a Structural Vectorautoregression Model|first1=Peter|last1=Bernholz|first2=Peter|last2=Kugler|journal=Working Papers|date=August 1, 2007|via=ideas.repec.org|access-date=March 31, 2015|archive-date=April 25, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210425223334/https://ideas.repec.org/p/bsl/wpaper/2007-12.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |author=Tracy, James D. |title=Handbook of European History 1400–1600: Late Middle Ages, Renaissance, and Reformation |publisher=Brill Academic Publishers |location=Boston |year= 1994|page=655 |isbn=90-04-09762-7}}</ref> European population rebound from the [[Black Death]] began before the arrival of New World metal, and may have begun a process of inflation that New World silver compounded later in the 16th century.<ref>{{cite book |author=Fischer |first=David Hackett |title=The Great Wave |publisher=Oxford University Press |year=1996 |isbn=0-19-512121-X |page=81 |language=en-uk}}</ref>

===After 1700===

[[File:Federal Funds Rate (effective).svg|thumb|right|upright=1.6|The U.S. effective [[federal funds rate]] charted over fifty years]]
A pattern of intermittent inflation and deflation periods persisted for centuries until the [[Great Depression]] in the 1930s, which was characterized by major deflation. Since the Great Depression, however, there has been a general tendency for prices to rise every year. In the 1970s and early 1980s, annual inflation in most industrialized countries reached two digits (ten percent or more). The double-digit inflation era was of short duration, however, inflation by the mid-1980s returned to more modest levels. Amid this, general trends there have been spectacular high-inflation episodes in individual countries in [[Interwar period|interwar Europe]], towards the end of the [[Nationalist government|Nationalist Chinese government]] in 1948–1949, and later in some Latin American countries, in Israel, and in Zimbabwe. Some of these episodes are considered [[hyperinflation]] periods, normally designating inflation rates that surpass 50 percent monthly.<ref name=parkin/>

== Measures ==
{{see also|List of countries by inflation rate|Consumer price index}}
[[File:Inflation data.webp|thumb|upright=1.6|right|[[producer price index|PPI]] is a [[leading indicator]], CPI and PCE [[Latency (engineering)|lag]]<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.yahoo.com/now/does-producer-price-index-tell-190327824.html | title=What Does the Producer Price Index Tell You? | date=June 3, 2021 | access-date=October 1, 2022 | archive-date=December 25, 2021 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211225183858/https://www.yahoo.com/now/does-producer-price-index-tell-190327824.html | url-status=live }}</ref>
{{legend-line|#00A2FF solid 3px|[[producer price index|PPI]]}}
{{legend-line|#61D836 solid 3px|Core PPI}}
{{legend-line|#929292 solid 3px|[[Consumer price index|CPI]]}}
{{legend-line|#F8BA00 solid 3px|[[Core inflation|Core]] CPI}}
{{legend-line|#FF2600 solid 3px|[[Personal consumption expenditures price index|PCE]]}}
{{legend-line|#D41876 solid 3px|Core PCE}}]]
Given that there are many possible measures of the price level, there are many possible measures of price inflation. Most frequently, the term "inflation" refers to a rise in a broad price index representing the overall price level for goods and services in the economy. The [[consumer price index]] (CPI), the [[personal consumption expenditures price index]] (PCEPI) and the [[GDP deflator]] are some examples of broad price indices. However, "inflation" may also be used to describe a rising price level within a narrower set of assets, goods or services within the economy, such as [[commodity|commodities]] (including food, fuel, metals), [[tangible asset]]s (such as real estate), services (such as entertainment and health care), or [[Labour (economics)|labor]]. Although the values of capital assets are often casually said to "inflate," this should not be confused with inflation as a defined term; a more accurate description for an increase in the value of a capital asset is appreciation. The FBI (CCI), the [[producer price index]], and [[employment cost index]] (ECI) are examples of narrow price indices used to measure price inflation in particular sectors of the economy. [[Core inflation]] is a measure of inflation for a subset of consumer prices that excludes food and energy prices, which rise and fall more than other prices in the short term. The [[Federal Reserve Board]] pays particular attention to the core inflation rate to get a better estimate of long-term future inflation trends overall.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Kiley |first=Michael J. |title=Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices |series=Finance and Economic Discussion Series |publisher=Federal Reserve Board |date=July 2008|url=http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200838/200838pap.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200838/200838pap.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live|access-date= May 13, 2015 }}</ref>

The inflation rate is most widely calculated by determining the movement or change in a price index, typically the [[consumer price index]].<ref>''See:''
* {{harvnb|Hall|Taylor|1993}};
* {{harvnb|Blanchard|2021}};
The consumer price index measures movements in prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by a "typical consumer".</ref>  

The inflation rate is the percentage change of a price index over time. The [[Retail Prices Index]] is also a measure of inflation that is commonly used in the United Kingdom. It is broader than the CPI and contains a larger basket of goods and services. Inflation is politically driven, and policy can directly influence the trend of inflation.

The RPI is indicative of the experiences of a wide range of household types, particularly low-income households.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Carruthers |first1=A. G. |last2=Sellwood |first2=D. J. |last3=Ward |first3=P. W. |date=1980 |title=Recent Developments in the Retail Prices Index |journal=Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician) |volume=29 |issue=1 |pages=1–32 |doi=10.2307/2987492 |jstor=2987492 |issn=0039-0526 }}</ref>

To illustrate the method of calculation, in January 2007, the U.S. Consumer Price Index was 202.416, and in January 2008 it was 211.080. The formula for calculating the annual percentage rate inflation in the CPI over the course of the year is: <math>\left(\frac{211.080-202.416}{202.416}\right)\times100\%=4.28\%</math>

The resulting inflation rate for the CPI in this one-year period is 4.28%, meaning the general level of prices for typical U.S. consumers rose by approximately four percent in 2007.<ref>The numbers reported here refer to the US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, All Items, series CPIAUCNS, from base level 100 in base year 1982. They were downloaded from the FRED database at the [[Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]] on August 8, 2008.</ref>

Other widely used price indices for calculating price inflation include the following:
* '''[[Producer price index|Producer price indices]]''' (PPIs) which measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. This differs from the CPI in that price subsidization, profits, and taxes may cause the amount received by the producer to differ from what the consumer paid. There is also typically a delay between an increase in the PPI and any eventual increase in the CPI. Producer price index measures the pressure being put on producers by the costs of their raw materials. This could be "passed on" to consumers, or it could be absorbed by profits, or offset by increasing productivity. In India and the United States, an earlier version of the PPI was called the [[Wholesale price index]].
* '''[[Commodity price index|Commodity price indices]]''', which measure the price of a selection of commodities. In the present commodity price indices are weighted by the relative importance of the components to the "all in" cost of an employee.
* '''[[Core inflation|Core price indices]]''': because food and oil prices can change quickly due to changes in [[supply and demand]] conditions in the food and oil markets, it can be difficult to detect the long run trend in price levels when those prices are included. Therefore, most [[List of national and international statistical services|statistical agencies]] also report a measure of 'core inflation', which removes the most volatile components (such as food and oil) from a broad price index like the CPI. Because core inflation is less affected by short run supply and demand conditions in specific markets, [[central bank]]s rely on it to better measure the inflationary effect of current [[monetary policy]].

Other common measures of inflation are:
* '''[[GDP deflator]]''' is a measure of the price of all the goods and services included in gross domestic product (GDP). The [[US Commerce Department]] publishes a deflator series for US GDP, defined as its nominal GDP measure divided by its real GDP measure.

∴ <math>\mbox{GDP Deflator} = \frac{\mbox{Nominal GDP}}{\mbox{Real GDP}}</math>
* '''Regional inflation''' The Bureau of Labor Statistics breaks down CPI-U calculations down to different regions of the US.
* '''Historical inflation''' Before collecting consistent econometric data became standard for governments, and for the purpose of comparing absolute, rather than relative standards of living, various economists have calculated imputed inflation figures. Most inflation data before the early 20th century is imputed based on the known costs of goods, rather than compiled at the time. It is also used to adjust for the differences in real standard of living for the presence of technology.
* '''[[Asset price inflation]]''' is an undue increase in the prices of real assets, such as real estate.
In some cases, the measures are meant to be more humorous or to reflect a single place. This includes:

* The [[Christmas Price Index]], which calculates the cost of the items mentioned in a song, "[[The Twelve Days of Christmas (song)|The Twelve Days of Christmas"]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Olson |first=Elizabeth |date=December 20, 2007 |title=The '12 Days' Index Shows a Record Increase |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/25/business/the-12-days-index-shows-a-record-increase-704075.html?n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes+Topics%2FSubjects%2FG%2FGifts |work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref>
* The [[Big Mac Index]], which compares prices across countries.<ref>{{cite news |date=9 April 1998 |title=Big MacCurrencies |url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1998/04/09/big-maccurrencies |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171227100228/http://www.economist.com/node/159859 |archive-date=27 December 2017 |access-date=27 November 2013 |newspaper=The Economist}}</ref>
* The [[Jollof index]], which calculates the price of food needed to make a [[Jollof rice]], a popular African dish.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Erezi |first=Dennis |date=2022-04-28 |title=Jollof Index, Chicken Republic, inflation and changing food consumption patterns |url=https://guardian.ng/features/jollof-index-chicken-republic-inflation-and-changing-food-consumption-patterns/ |access-date=2024-05-15 |website=The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News |language=en-US}}</ref>
* The [[Two Dishes One Soup Index]], which calculates the price of food needed to cook one soup and two other dishes for a small family in Hong Kong.
* The [[Herengracht index]], which calculates the price of housing in a fashionable neighborhood of [[Amsterdam]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Eichholtz |first=Piet M. A. |date=1996 |title=A Long Run House Price Index: The Herengracht Index, 1628-1973 |url=http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=598 |journal=SSRN Electronic Journal |language=en |doi=10.2139/ssrn.598 |issn=1556-5068|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
* The [[Lipstick index]], which claimed that when the economy got worse, small luxury sales, such as [[lipstick]], would go up.<ref>{{Cite news |date=23 January 2009 |title=Lip service: What lipstick sales tell you about the economy |url=https://www.economist.com/unknown/2009/01/23/lip-service |access-date=2024-06-10 |newspaper=The Economist |issn=0013-0613}}</ref>

=== Issues in measuring ===

Measuring inflation in an economy requires objective means of differentiating changes in nominal prices on a common set of goods and services, and distinguishing them from those price shifts resulting from changes in value such as volume, quality, or performance. For example, if the price of a can of corn changes from $0.90 to $1.00 over the course of a year, with no change in quality, then this price difference represents inflation. This single price change would not, however, represent general inflation in an overall economy. Overall inflation is measured as the price change of a large "basket" of representative goods and services. This is the purpose of a [[price index]], which is the combined price of a "basket" of many goods and services. The combined price is the sum of the weighted prices of items in the "basket". A weighted price is calculated by multiplying the [[unit price]] of an item by the number of that item the average consumer purchases. Weighted pricing is necessary to measure the effect of individual unit price changes on the economy's overall inflation. The [[consumer price index]], for example, uses data collected by surveying households to determine what proportion of the typical consumer's overall spending is spent on specific goods and services, and weights the average prices of those items accordingly. Those weighted average prices are combined to calculate the overall price. To better relate price changes over time, indexes typically choose a "base year" price and assign it a value of 100. Index prices in subsequent years are then expressed in relation to the base year price.<ref name=Taylor>{{cite book |last=Taylor |first=Timothy |title=Principles of Economics |publisher=Freeload Press |date=2008 |isbn=978-1-930789-05-0}}</ref> While comparing inflation measures for various periods one has to take into consideration the [[Base effect (inflation)|base effect]] as well.

Inflation measures are often modified over time, either for the relative weight of goods in the basket, or in the way in which goods and services from the present are compared with goods and services from the past. Basket weights are updated regularly, usually every year, to adapt to changes in consumer behavior. Sudden changes in consumer behavior can still introduce a weighting bias in inflation measurement. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic it has been shown that the basket of goods and services was no longer representative of consumption during the crisis, as numerous goods and services could no longer be consumed due to government containment measures ("lock-downs").<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Benchimol |first1=Jonathan |last2=Caspi |first2=Itamar |last3=Levin |first3=Yuval |date=2022 |title=The COVID-19 Inflation Weighting in Israel |journal=The Economists' Voice |volume=19 |issue=1 |pages=5–14 |doi=10.1515/ev-2021-0023 |s2cid=245497122 |doi-access=free |arxiv=2506.09875 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Seiler|first=Pascal|date=2020-09-16|title=Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data|journal=[[Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics]]|volume=156|issue=1|article-number=13|doi=10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7|issn=2235-6282|pmc=7493696|pmid=32959014 |doi-access=free }}</ref>

Over time, adjustments are also made to the type of goods and services selected to reflect changes in the sorts of goods and services purchased by 'typical consumers'. New products may be introduced, older products disappear, the quality of existing products may change, and consumer preferences can shift. Different segments of the population may naturally consume different "baskets" of goods and services and may even experience different inflation rates. It is argued that companies have put more innovation into bringing down prices for wealthy families than for poor families.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Botella |first1=Elena |title=That "Inflation Inequality" Report Has a Major Problem |url=https://slate.com/business/2019/11/inflation-inequality-not-about-beer-lettuce.html |access-date=11 November 2019 |work=[[Slate (magazine)|Slate]] |date=8 November 2019 |archive-date=November 30, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211130071656/https://slate.com/business/2019/11/inflation-inequality-not-about-beer-lettuce.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

Inflation numbers are often [[seasonally adjusted]] to differentiate expected cyclical cost shifts. For example, home heating costs are expected to rise in colder months, and seasonal adjustments are often used when measuring inflation to compensate for cyclical energy or fuel demand spikes. Inflation numbers may be averaged or otherwise subjected to statistical techniques to remove [[statistical noise]] and [[Volatility (finance)|volatility]] of individual prices.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Vavra |first1=Joseph |date=2014 |title=Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an SS Interpretation |url=https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/129/1/215/1897034 |journal=The Quarterly Journal of Economics |volume=129 |issue=1 |pages=215–258 |doi= 10.1093/qje/qjt027 |access-date=2023-03-22|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Arlt |first=Josef |date=11 March 2021 |title=The problem of annual inflation rate indicator |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ijfe.2563 |journal=International Journal of Finance & Economics |volume=28 |issue=3 |pages=2772–2788|doi=10.1002/ijfe.2563 |s2cid=233675877 |url-access=subscription }}</ref>

When looking at inflation, economic institutions may focus only on certain kinds of prices, or ''special indices'', such as the [[core inflation]] index which is used by central banks to formulate [[monetary policy]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coreinflation.asp|title=Why Core Inflation is Important|last=Kenton|first=Will|website=Investopedia|language=en|access-date=2020-01-17|archive-date=December 14, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211214063705/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coreinflation.asp|url-status=live}}</ref>

Most inflation indices are calculated from weighted averages of selected price changes. This necessarily introduces distortion, and can lead to legitimate disputes about what the true inflation rate is. This problem can be overcome by including all available price changes in the calculation, and then choosing the [[median]] value.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/commentary/1991/1201.pdf |title=Median Price Changes: An Alternative Approach to Measuring Current Monetary Inflation |access-date=May 21, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110515145028/http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/commentary/1991/1201.pdf |archive-date=May 15, 2011 }}</ref> In some other cases, governments may intentionally report false inflation rates; for instance, during the presidency of [[Cristina Kirchner]] (2007–2015) the [[government of Argentina]] was criticised for manipulating economic data, such as inflation and GDP figures, for political gain and to reduce payments on its inflation-indexed debt.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-argentina-idUSBRE91019920130202 |title=IMF reprimands Argentina for inaccurate economic data |newspaper=Reuters |date=February 2, 2013 |access-date=February 2, 2013 |last1=Wroughton |first1=Lesley |archive-date=August 4, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210804134926/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-argentina-idUSBRE91019920130202 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/argentina-becomes-first-nation-censured-by-imf-on-inflation-data.html |title=Argentina Becomes First Nation Censured by IMF on Economic Data |newspaper=Bloomberg.com |date=February 2, 2013 |access-date=February 2, 2013 |archive-date=March 10, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210310235820/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/argentina-becomes-first-nation-censured-by-imf-on-inflation-data.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

=== Official vs. true vs. perceived inflation ===
The true inflation is one percentage point lower than the official one, according to research. Therefore, the 2% inflation target is needed to prevent the true inflation being close to zero or even deflation. The reasons are the following:<ref>{{cite web|url=https://cals.ncsu.edu/news/you-decide-why-stop-at-an-inflation-rate-of-2/|title=You Decide: Why Stop at an Inflation Rate Target of 2%?|date=January 29, 2023|website=CALS News|publisher=NC State University}}</ref>
* '''Substitution effect''': People buy fewer products with the highest price rises and more of those whose prices have risen less. Therefore, the price of their non-fixed shopping basket rises less than that of a fixed shopping basket.
* '''Unobserved quality improvements''': Even though statisticians try to take quality improvements into account, they are not able to do it fully. This is why people rather buy current products at the higher prices than old products at their old prices.
* '''New goods''': The current shopping basket is much better, because it has goods that you previously could not even dream of.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.dummies.com/article/business-careers-money/business/economics/inflation-usually-overestimated-228118/|title=Why Inflation Is Usually Overestimated|author=Dan Richards|author2=Manzur Rashid|author3=Peter Antonioni|date=November 1, 2016|publisher=John Wiley & Sons}}</ref>

Nevertheless, people overestimate the inflation even vs. the measured inflation. This is because they focus more on commonly-bought items than on durable goods, and more on price increases than on price decreases.<ref name=StatisticsCanada>{{cite web|date=January 19, 2022 |publisher=Statistics Canada |title=The naked eye versus the CPI: How does our perception of inflation stack up against the data? |url=https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/256-naked-eye-versus-cpi-how-does-our-perception-inflation-stack-against-data}}<!-- auto-translated from Finnish by Module:CS1 translator --></ref> On the other hand, different people have different shopping baskets and hence face different inflation rates.<ref name=StatisticsCanada/>

[[File:Consumer price index 2024 relative to 2010.svg|thumb|upright=1.5|[[Consumer price index by country]] in % (2024, relative to 2010)<ref name="World Bank CPI">{{Cite web|url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL?end=2024&name_desc=false&start=1960&view=chart&year=2024|title = Consumer price index (2010 = 100), World Bank Group, accessed July 2025}}</ref>
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[[Cumulative process|Cumulative]] inflation due to the [[compound interest|compound effect]] can impact the perception of inflation.<ref name="n873">{{cite journal | last1=McGranahan | first1=Leslie | last2=Paulson | first2=Anna L. | title=The Incidence of Inflation: Inflation Experiences by Demographic Group: 1981-2004 | journal=FRB of Chicago Working Paper | date=2005 | ssrn=3887185 | url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3887185 | access-date=23 April 2025}}</ref>

===Inflation expectations===

Inflation expectations or expected inflation is the rate of inflation that is anticipated for some time in the foreseeable future. There are two major approaches to modeling the formation of inflation expectations. [[Adaptive expectations]] models them as a weighted average of what was expected one period earlier and the actual rate of inflation that most recently occurred. [[Rational expectations]] models them as unbiased, in the sense that the expected inflation rate is not systematically above or systematically below the inflation rate that actually occurs.

A long-standing survey of inflation expectations is the University of Michigan survey.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH|title=University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation|date=January 1978|publisher=Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis|access-date=March 9, 2017|archive-date=November 7, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211107075130/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH|url-status=live}}</ref>

Inflation expectations affect the economy in several ways. They are more or less built into [[nominal interest rate]]s, so that a rise (or fall) in the expected inflation rate will typically result in a rise (or fall) in nominal interest rates, giving a smaller effect if any on [[real interest rate]]s. In addition, higher expected inflation tends to be built into the rate of wage increases, giving a smaller effect if any on the changes in [[real wages]]. Moreover, the response of inflationary expectations to monetary policy can influence the division of the effects of policy between inflation and unemployment (see [[monetary policy credibility]]).

== Causes ==
{{Organize section|date=February 2024}}

=== Historical approaches ===

Theories of the origin and causes of inflation have existed since at least the 16th century. Two competing theories, the [[quantity theory of money]] and the [[real bills doctrine]], appeared in various guises during century-long debates on recommended central bank behaviour. In the 20th century, [[Keynesian]], [[monetarist]] and [[New classical macroeconomics|new classical]] (also known as [[rational expectations]]) views on inflation dominated post-World War II [[macroeconomics]] discussions, which were often heated intellectual debates, until some kind of synthesis of the various theories was reached by the end of the century.

==== Before 1936 ====
{{main|Real bills doctrine}}

The [[price revolution]] from ca. 1550–1700 caused several thinkers to present what is now considered to be early formulations of the [[quantity theory of money]] (QTM). Other contemporary authors attributed rising price levels to the debasement of national coinages. Later research has shown that also growing output of [[Central Europe]]an silver mines and an increase in the [[velocity of money]] because of innovations in the payment technology, in particular the increased use of [[bill of exchange|bills of exchange]], contributed to the price revolution.<ref name=Dimand>{{cite book|last1=Dimand |first1=Robert W. |chapter=Monetary Economics, History of |title=The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics |date=2016 |pages=1–13 |doi=10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2721-1 |chapter-url=https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2721-1 |publisher=Palgrave Macmillan UK |isbn=978-1-349-95121-5 |language=en}}</ref>

An alternative theory, the [[real bills doctrine]] (RBD), originated in the 17th and 18th century, receiving its first authoritative exposition in [[Adam Smith]]'s ''[[The Wealth of Nations]]''.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Green |first1=Roy |title=Real Bills Doctrine |journal=The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics |date=2018 |pages=11328–11330 |doi=10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_1614|isbn=978-1-349-95188-8 }}</ref> It asserts that banks should issue their money in exchange for short-term real bills of adequate value. As long as banks only issue a dollar in exchange for assets worth at least a dollar, the issuing bank's assets will naturally move in step with its issuance of money, and the money will hold its value. Should the bank fail to get or maintain assets of adequate value, then the bank's money will lose value, just as any financial security will lose value if its asset backing diminishes. The real bills doctrine (also known as the backing theory) thus asserts that inflation results when money outruns its issuer's assets. The quantity theory of money, in contrast, claims that inflation results when money outruns the economy's production of goods.

During the 19th century, three different schools debated these questions: The [[British Currency School]] upheld a quantity theory view, believing that the [[Bank of England]]'s issues of bank notes should vary one-for-one with the bank's gold reserves. In contrast to this, the [[British Banking School]] followed the real bills doctrine, recommending that the bank's operations should be governed by the needs of trade: Banks should be able to issue currency against bills of trading, i.e. "real bills" that they buy from merchants. A third group, the Free Banking School, held that competitive private banks would not overissue, even though a monopolist central bank could be believed to do it.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Schwartz |first1=Anna J. |title=Banking School, Currency School, Free Banking School |journal=The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics |date=2018 |pages=694–700 |doi=10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_263|isbn=978-1-349-95188-8 }}</ref>

The debate between currency, or quantity theory, and banking schools during the 19th century prefigures current questions about the credibility of money in the present. In the 19th century, the banking schools had greater influence in policy in the United States and Great Britain, while the [[British Currency School|currency schools]] had more influence "on the continent", that is in non-British countries, particularly in the [[Latin Monetary Union]] and the [[Scandinavian Monetary Union]].

During the Bullionist Controversy during the [[Napoleonic Wars]], [[David Ricardo]] argued that the Bank of England had engaged in over-issue of bank notes, leading to commodity price increases. In the late 19th century, supporters of the quantity theory of money led by [[Irving Fisher]] debated with supporters of [[bimetallism]]. Later, [[Knut Wicksell]] sought to explain price movements as the result of real shocks rather than movements in money supply, resounding statements from the real bills doctrine.<ref name=Dimand/>

In 2019, monetary historians [[Thomas M. Humphrey]] and [[Richard Timberlake]] published "Gold, the Real Bills Doctrine, and the Fed: Sources of Monetary Disorder 1922–1938".<ref>{{cite book |last1=Humphrey |first1=Thomas M. |last2=Timberlake |first2=Richard H. |title=Gold, the Real Bills Doctrine, and the Fed: sources of monetary disorder 1922–1938 |date=2019 |publisher=Cato Institute |location=Washington, D.C. |isbn=978-1-948647-13-7 |edition=First}}</ref>

==== Keynes and the early Keynesians ====
{{further|Keynesian Revolution}}
{{further|Keynes's theory of wages and prices}}
John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 main work ''[[The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]]'' emphasized that wages and prices were [[Nominal rigidity|sticky]] in the short run, but gradually responded to [[aggregate demand]] shocks. These could arise from many different sources, e.g. autonomous movements in investment or fluctuations in private wealth or interest rates.<ref name=parkin/> Economic policy could also affect demand, [[monetary policy]] by affecting interest rates and [[fiscal policy]] either directly through the level of [[government final consumption expenditure]] or indirectly by changing [[Disposable and discretionary income|disposable income]] via tax changes.

The various sources of variations in aggregate demand will cause cycles in both output and price levels. Initially, a demand change will primarily affect output because of the price stickiness, but eventually prices and wages will adjust to reflect the change in demand. Consequently, movements in real output and prices will be positively, but not strongly, correlated.<ref name=parkin/>

Keynes' propositions formed the basis of [[Keynesian economics]] which came to dominate macroeconomic research and economic policy in the first decades after World War II.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|526}} Other Keynesian economists developed and reformed several of Keynes' ideas. Importantly, [[William Phillips (economist)|Alban William Phillips]] in 1958 published indirect evidence of a negative relation between inflation and unemployment, confirming the Keynesian emphasis on a positive correlation between increases in real output (normally accompanied by a fall in unemployment) and rising prices, i.e. inflation. Phillips' findings were confirmed by other empirical analyses and became known as a [[Phillips curve]]. It quickly became central to macroeconomic thinking, apparently offering a stable trade-off between [[price stability]] and employment. The curve was interpreted to imply that a country could achieve low unemployment if it were willing to tolerate a higher inflation rate or vice versa.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|173}}

The Phillips curve model described the U.S. experience well in the 1960s but failed to describe the [[1973–75 recession|stagflation experienced in the 1970s]].

==== Monetarism ====
[[File:CPI 1914-2022.webp|thumb|alt=CPI 1914–2022|upright=1.6|
{{legend|#0076BA |Inflation}}
{{legend|#EE220C |[[Deflation]]}}
{{legend-line|#1DB100 solid 3px|[[Money supply|M2 money supply]] increases Year/Year}}
]]
[[File:M2 and Inflation USA.svg|thumb|right|upright=1.6|Inflation and the growth of money supply (M2)]]
{{Further|Monetarism}}

During the 1960s the Keynesian view of inflation and macroeconomic policy altogether were challenged by [[Monetarism|monetarist]] theories, led by [[Milton Friedman]].<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|528–529}} Friedman famously stated that:<blockquote>''Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.''<ref>{{cite book|first1=Milton|last1= Friedman|first2=Anna Jacobson |last2=Schwartz|title=A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960|url=https://archive.org/details/monetaryhistoryo00frie|url-access=registration|year=1963|publisher=Princeton University Press}}</ref></blockquote>He revived the [[quantity theory of money]] by [[Irving Fisher]] and others, making it into a central tenet of monetarist thinking, arguing that the most significant factor influencing inflation or deflation is how fast the [[money supply]] grows or shrinks.<ref name="Lagassé2000">{{cite book |author=Lagassé, Paul |title=The Columbia Encyclopedia |publisher=Columbia University Press |location=New York |year=2000 |chapter=Monetarism |isbn=0-7876-5015-3 |edition=6th |url-access=registration |url=https://archive.org/details/columbiaencyclop00laga }}</ref>

The quantity theory of money, simply stated, says that any change in the amount of money in a system will change the price level. This theory begins with the [[equation of exchange]]:

:<math>MV = PQ,</math>
where
:<math>M</math> is the nominal quantity of money;
:<math>V</math> is the [[velocity of money]] in final expenditures;
:<math>P</math> is the general price level;
:<math>Q</math> is an index of the [[real versus nominal value (economics)|real value]] of final expenditures.

In this formula, the general price level is related to the level of real economic activity (''Q''), the quantity of money (''M'') and the velocity of money (''V''). The formula itself is simply an uncontroversial [[accounting identity]] because the velocity of money (''V'') is defined residually from the equation to be the ratio of final nominal expenditure (<math> PQ </math>) to the quantity of money (''M'').<ref name=Mankiw2002/>{{rp|81–107}}

Monetarists assumed additionally that the velocity of money is unaffected by monetary policy (at least in the long run), that the real value of output is also [[exogenous]] in the long run, its long-run value being determined independently by the productive capacity of the economy, and that money supply is exogenous and can be controlled by the monetary authorities. Under these assumptions, the primary driver of the change in the general price level is changes in the quantity of money.<ref name=Mankiw2002/>{{rp|81–107}} Consequently, monetarists contended that monetary policy, not fiscal policy, was the most potent instrument to influence aggregate demand, real output and eventually inflation. This was contrary to Keynesian thinking which in principle recognized a role for monetary policy, but in practice believed that the effect from interest rate changes to the real economy was slight, making monetary policy an ineffective instrument, preferring fiscal policy.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|528}} Conversely, monetarists considered fiscal policy, or government spending and taxation, as ineffective in controlling inflation.<ref name="Lagassé2000"/>

Friedman also took issue with the traditional Keynesian view concerning the Phillips curve. He, together with [[Edmund Phelps]], contended that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment implied by the Phillips curve was only temporary, but not permanent. If politicians tried to exploit it, it would eventually disappear because higher inflation would over time be built into the economic expectations of households and firms.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|528–529}} This line of thinking led to the concept of [[potential output]] (sometimes called the "natural gross domestic product"), a level of GDP where the economy is stable in the sense that inflation will neither decrease nor increase. This level may itself change over time when institutional or natural constraints change. It corresponds to the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, [[NAIRU]], or the "natural" rate of unemployment (sometimes called the "structural" level of unemployment).<ref name=Blanchard/> If GDP exceeds its potential (and unemployment consequently is below the NAIRU), the theory says that inflation will ''accelerate'' as suppliers increase their prices. If GDP falls below its potential level (and unemployment is above the NAIRU), inflation will ''decelerate'' as suppliers attempt to fill excess capacity, cutting prices and undermining inflation.<ref>{{cite journal | last = Coe | first = David T. | title = Nominal Wages. The NAIRU and Wage Flexibility | publisher = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) | url = http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/59/19/33917832.pdf | year = 1985 | id = MPRA Paper 114295 | journal = OECD Economic Studies | issue = 5 | pages = 87–126 | s2cid = 18879396 | access-date = February 24, 2010 | archive-date = February 26, 2018 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20180226211933/http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/59/19/33917832.pdf | url-status = live }}</ref>

==== Rational expectations theory ====

{{Further|Rational expectations}}

In the early 1970s, [[rational expectations theory]] led by economists like [[Robert Lucas Jr.|Robert Lucas]], [[Thomas J. Sargent|Thomas Sargent]] and [[Robert Barro]] transformed macroeconomic thinking radically. They held that economic actors look rationally into the future when trying to maximize their well-being, and do not respond solely to immediate [[opportunity cost]]s and pressures.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|529–530}} In this view, future expectations and strategies are important for inflation as well. One implication was that agents would anticipate the likely behaviour of central banks and base their own actions on these expectations. A central bank having a reputation of being "soft" on inflation will generate high inflation expectations, which again will be self-fulfilling when all agents build expectations of future high inflation into their nominal contracts like wage agreements. On the other hand, if the central bank has a reputation of being "tough" on inflation, then such a policy announcement will be believed and inflationary expectations will come down rapidly, thus allowing inflation itself to come down rapidly with minimal economic disruption. The implication is that [[credibility]] becomes very important for central banks in fighting inflation.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|467–469}}

==== New Keynesians ====

Events during the 1970s proved Milton Friedman and other critics of the traditional Phillips curve right: The relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate broke down. Eventually, a consensus was established that the break-down was due to agents changing their inflation expectations, confirming Friedman's theory. As a consequence, the notion of a [[natural rate of unemployment]] (alternatively called the structural rate of unemployment) was accepted by most economists, meaning that there is a specific level of unemployment that is compatible with stable inflation. [[Stabilization policy]] must therefore try to steer economic activity so that the actual unemployment rate converges towards that level.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|176–189}} The trade-off between the [[unemployment rate]] and inflation implied by Phillips thus holds in the short term, but not in the long term.<ref>Chang, R. (1997) [https://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/ACFC7.pdf "Is Low Unemployment Inflationary?"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131113212953/https://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/ACFC7.pdf|date=November 13, 2013}} ''Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review'' 1Q97: 4–13.</ref> Also the [[1970s energy crisis|oil crises of the 1970s]] causing at the same time rising unemployment and rising inflation (i.e. [[stagflation]]) led to a broad recognition by economists that [[supply shock]]s could independently affect inflation.<ref name=parkin/><ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|529}}

During the 1980s a group of researchers named [[New Keynesian economics|new Keynesians]] emerged who accepted many originally non-Keynesian concepts like the importance of monetary policy, the existence of a natural level of unemployment and the incorporation of rational expectations formation as a reasonable benchmark. At the same time they believed, like Keynes did, that various [[market imperfection]]s in different markets like labour markets and financial markets were also important to study to understand both inflation generation and [[business cycle]]s.<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|533–534}} During the 1980s and 1990s, there were often heated intellectual debates between new Keynesians and new classicals, but by the 2000s, a synthesis gradually emerged. The result has been called the ''new Keynesian model'',<ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|535}} the "[[new neoclassical synthesis]]"<ref name=Goodfriend>{{cite journal |last1=Goodfriend |first1=Marvin |title=How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy |journal=Journal of Economic Perspectives |date=1 November 2007 |volume=21 |issue=4 |pages=47–68 |doi=10.1257/jep.21.4.47|s2cid=56338417 |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Woodford |first1=Michael |title=Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis |journal=American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics |date=1 January 2009 |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=267–279 |doi=10.1257/mac.1.1.267}}</ref> or simply the "new consensus" model.<ref name=Goodfriend/>

=== View post-2000 to present ===
A common view beginning around the year 2000 and holding through to the present time on inflation and its causes can be illustrated by a modern Phillips curve including a role for supply shocks and inflation expectations beside the original role of aggregate demand (determining employment and unemployment fluctuations) in influencing the inflation rate.<ref name=Blanchard/> Consequently, demand shocks, supply shocks and inflation expectations are all potentially important determinants of inflation,<ref name=congress/> confirming the basis of the older [[triangle model]] by [[Robert J. Gordon]]:<ref>Robert J. Gordon (1988), ''Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy'', 2nd ed., Chap. 22.4, 'Modern theories of inflation'. McGraw-Hill.</ref>

* ''Demand shocks'' may both decrease and increase inflation. So-called [[demand-pull inflation]] may be caused by increases in aggregate demand due to increased private and government spending,<ref>{{cite web |last1=Gillespie |first1=Nick |last2=Taylor |first2=Regan |title=Biden Is Clueless About Inflation |url=https://reason.com/video/2022/04/01/biden-is-clueless-about-inflation/ |website=reason.com |date=April 2022 |publisher=Reason |access-date=4 April 2022 |archive-date=April 27, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220427225435/https://reason.com/video/2022/04/01/biden-is-clueless-about-inflation/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=De Rugy |first1=Veronique |title=Blame Insane Government Spending for Inflation |url=https://reason.com/2022/03/31/blame-insane-government-spending-for-inflation/ |website=reason.com |date=March 31, 2022 |publisher=Reason |access-date=4 April 2022 |archive-date=May 11, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220511170305/https://reason.com/2022/03/31/blame-insane-government-spending-for-inflation/ |url-status=live }}</ref> etc. Conversely, negative demand shocks may be caused by [[contractionary]] economic policy. 
* ''Supply shocks'' may also lead to both higher or lower inflation, depending on the character of the shock. [[Cost-push inflation]] is caused by a drop in aggregate supply (potential output). This may be due to natural disasters, war or increased prices of inputs. For example, a sudden decrease in the supply of oil, leading to increased oil prices, can cause cost-push inflation. Producers for whom oil is a part of their costs could then pass this on to consumers in the form of increased prices.<ref name=Britannica>{{cite web|url=https://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/287700/inflation/3512/The-cost-push-theory|title=Encyclopædia Britannica|access-date=September 13, 2014|archive-date=September 7, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140907030214/http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/287700/inflation/3512/The-cost-push-theory/|url-status=live}}</ref> 
* ''Inflation expectations'' play a major role in forming actual inflation. High inflation can prompt employees to demand rapid wage increases to keep up with consumer prices. In this way, rising wages in turn can help fuel inflation as firms pass these higher labor costs on to their customers as higher prices, leading to a feedback loop. In the case of collective bargaining, wage growth may be set as a function of inflationary expectations, which will be higher when inflation is high. This can cause a [[wage-price spiral]]. In a sense, inflation begets further inflationary expectations, which beget further [[built-in inflation|(built-in) inflation]].<ref name=Britannica/>

The important role of rational expectations is recognized by the emphasis on credibility on the part of central banks and other [[policy-makers]].<ref name=Goodfriend/> The monetarist assertion that monetary policy alone could successfully control inflation formed part of the new consensus which recognized that both monetary and fiscal policy are important tools for influencing aggregate demand.<ref name=Goodfriend/><ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|528}} Indeed, monetary policy is under normal circumstances considered to be the preferable instrument to contain inflation.<ref name=congress>{{cite web |title=Inflation in the U.S. Economy: Causes and Policy Options |url=https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47273/2 |website=crsreports.congress.gov |publisher=Congressional Research Service |access-date=15 October 2023 |date=October 6, 2022}}</ref><ref name=Blanchard/> At the same time, most central banks have abandoned trying to target money growth as originally advocated by the monetarists. Instead, most central banks in developed countries focus on adjusting interest rates to achieve an explicit inflation target.<ref name=Romer/><ref name=Blanchard/>{{rp|505–509}} The reason for central bank reluctance in following money growth targets is that the money stock measures that central banks can control tightly, e.g. the [[monetary base]], are not very closely linked to aggregate demand, whereas conversely money supply measures like [[M2 (economics)|M2]], which are in some cases more closely correlated with aggregate demand, are difficult to control for the central bank. Also, in many countries the relationship between aggregate demand and all money stock measures have broken down in recent decades, weakening further the case for monetary policy rules focusing on the money supply.<ref name=Romer/>{{rp|608}}

However, while more disputed in the 1970s, surveys of members of the [[American Economic Association]] (AEA) since the 1990s have shown that most professional American economists generally agree with the statement "Inflation is caused primarily by too much growth in the money supply", while the same surveys have shown a lack of consensus by AEA members since the 1990s that "In the short run, a reduction in unemployment causes the rate of inflation to increase" has developed despite more agreement with the statement in the 1970s.{{refn|name=EconomistsConsensus|<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Kearl|first1=J. R.|last2=Pope|first2=Clayne L.|last3=Whiting|first3=Gordon C.|last4=Wimmer|first4=Larry T.|year=1979|title=A Confusion of Economists?|journal=American Economic Review|publisher=American Economic Association|volume=69|issue=2|pages=28–37|jstor=1801612}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Alston |first1=Richard M. |last2=Kearl |first2=J.R. |author-link2=James R. Kearl |last3=Vaughan |first3=Michael B. |title=Is There a Consensus Among Economists in the 1990's? |date=May 1992 |journal=[[The American Economic Review]] |volume=82 |issue=2 |pages=203–209 |jstor=2117401 |url=http://www.weber.edu/wsuimages/AcademicAffairs/ProvostItems/global.pdf |archive-date=April 8, 2017 |access-date=October 16, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170408191354/http://www.weber.edu/wsuimages/AcademicAffairs/ProvostItems/global.pdf }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Fuller |first1=Dan |last2=Geide-Stevenson |first2=Doris |title=Consensus Among Economists: Revisited |date=Fall 2003 |journal=[[Journal of Economic Education|The Journal of Economic Education]] |volume=34 |issue=4 |pages=369–387 |jstor=30042564 |doi=10.1080/00220480309595230|s2cid=143617926 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Fuller|first1=Dan|last2=Geide-Stevenson|first2=Doris|title=Consensus Among Economists – An Update|year=2014|journal=[[Journal of Economic Education|The Journal of Economic Education]]|publisher=[[Taylor & Francis]]|volume=45|issue=2|page=138|doi=10.1080/00220485.2014.889963|s2cid=143794347|url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261884738}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Geide-Stevenson|first1=Doris|last2=La Parra-Perez|first2=Alvaro|year=2024|title=Consensus among economists 2020—A sharpening of the picture|journal=[[Journal of Economic Education]]|publisher=[[Taylor & Francis]]|volume=55|issue=4|pages=461–478|doi=10.1080/00220485.2024.2386328}}</ref>}}

[[2021–2023 inflation surge#Housing shortage|Housing shortages]],<ref>{{Cite news |last=Derby |first=Michael S. |date=September 27, 2022 |title=Fed's Harker says housing shortage a key inflation driver |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-harker-says-housing-shortage-key-inflation-driver-2022-09-27/ |work=Reuters}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last1=O'Donnell |first1=Katy |last2=Guida |first2=Victoria |date=November 10, 2021 |title=Biden's next inflation threat: The rent is too damn high |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/10/rent-inflation-biden-520642 |work=Politico |quote=Housing costs just posted one of their largest monthly gains in decades, and many economists expect them to loom large in inflation figures over the next year heading into the 2022 midterm elections. It's not just economists — the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in research released Monday that Americans on average expect rents to rise 10.1 percent over the next year, the highest reading in the survey's history.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Boak |first=Josh |date=2024-03-15 |title=Why are so many voters frustrated by the US economy? It's home prices |url=https://apnews.com/article/biden-inflation-housing-trump-home-price-rent-248ef02e197c3a7ffb801e370c529d33 |access-date=2024-07-24 |website=AP News |language=en |quote=}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=O'Donnell |first=Katy |date=March 18, 2022 |title=The main driver of inflation isn't what you think it is |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/18/housing-costs-inflation-00015808 |work=Politico |quote=But when it comes to the single biggest driver of runaway prices, Washington's hands are mostly tied. Skyrocketing housing costs may create even bigger problems for the administration going forward than oil and food price spikes, which are the result of sudden and unforeseen — but probably temporary — events. That's because there's no clear end in sight for shelter inflation.}}</ref> [[immigration]]<ref>{{Cite web |last=Condie |first=Stuart |date=2023 |title=Global Migration Boom Keeps Housing Costs High |url=https://www.wsj.com/economy/global-migration-boom-keeps-housing-costs-high-5fc84b7f |access-date=2025-09-16 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US}}</ref> and [[2021–2023 inflation surge#Climate change|climate change]]<ref>{{Cite web |last=Borenstein |first=Seth |date=2024-03-21 |title=Higher temperatures mean higher food and other prices. A new study links climate shocks to inflation |url=https://apnews.com/article/inflation-climate-change-food-prices-heat-6e5297e12868aaf797529bb755268818 |access-date=2024-07-24 |website=AP News |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=July 23, 2024 |title=Home insurance rates are rising due to climate change. What could break that cycle? |url=https://www.npr.org/2024/07/18/1198912918/home-insurance-rates-are-rising-due-to-climate-change-what-could-break-that-cycl |work=NPR}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Becker |first=William S. |date=2024-07-22 |title=Opinion: Climate inflation is eating your paycheck — and it's only going to get worse |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4782252-climate-inflation-economic-impact/ |access-date=2024-07-24 |website=The Hill |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=July 11, 2024 |title=How is climate change affecting food prices and inflation? |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2024/7/11/how-is-climate-change-affecting-food-prices-and-inflation |access-date=2024-07-24 |website=Al Jazeera |language=en}}</ref> have been cited as significant drivers of inflation in the 21st century.

==== 2021–2022 inflation spike ====

{{main|2021–2022 inflation spike}}

In 2021–2022, most countries experienced a considerable [[2021–2023 inflation surge|increase in inflation]], peaking in 2022 and declining in 2023. The causes are believed to be a mixture of demand and supply shocks, whereas inflation expectations generally seem to remain anchored (as per May 2023).<ref name="Brookings">{{cite web |last1=Bernanke |first1=Ben |last2=Blanchard |first2=Olivier |title=What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation? |url=https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Bernanke-Blanchard-conference-draft_5.23.23.pdf |website=www.brookings.edu |publisher=Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution |access-date=15 October 2023 |date=May 23, 2023}}</ref> Possible causes on the demand side include expansionary fiscal and monetary policy in the wake of the global [[COVID-19 pandemic]], whereas supply shocks include [[supply chain]] problems also caused by the pandemic<ref name="Brookings" /> and exacerbated by energy price rises following the [[Russian invasion of Ukraine]] in 2022. 

The term [[sellers' inflation]] was coined during this period to describe the effect of corporate profits as a possible cause of inflation: Price inelasticity can contribute to inflation when [[Consolidation (business)|firms consolidate]], tending to support monopoly or [[monopsony]] conditions anywhere along the [[supply chain]] for goods or services. When this occurs, firms can provide greater [[shareholder value]] by taking a larger proportion of [[Profit (accounting)|profits]] than by investing in providing greater volumes of their outputs.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Mankiw |first1=N. Gregory |title=Principles of economics |date=2015 |publisher=[[Cengage Learning]] |isbn=978-1-285-16587-5 |edition=Seventh |location=Stamford, Connecticut |pages=257–367 |language=en-us |chapter=Part V, chapters 13–17}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Bivins |first1=Josh |title=Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond? |url=https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/ |website=Economic Policy Institute |access-date=25 May 2022 |date=21 April 2022 |archive-date=May 25, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220525111507/https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Shortly after initial energy price shocks caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine had subsided, oil companies found that supply chain constrictions, already exacerbated by the ongoing global pandemic, supported price inelasticity, i.e., they began lowering prices to match the [[price of oil]] when it fell much more slowly than they had increased their prices when costs rose.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Cronin |first1=Brittany |date=7 May 2022 |title=The good times are rolling for Big Oil. 3 things to know about their surging profits |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/05/07/1097177459/big-oil-exxon-earnings-gasoline-prices-crude |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220521123900/https://www.npr.org/2022/05/07/1097177459/big-oil-exxon-earnings-gasoline-prices-crude |archive-date=May 21, 2022 |access-date=25 May 2022 |work=NPR |language=en}}</ref>

The [[quantity theory of money]] has long been popular with [[libertarian-conservative]] critics of the Federal Reserve. During the COVID pandemic and its immediate aftermath, the M2 money supply increased at the fastest rate in decades, leading some to link the growth to the 2021-2023 inflation surge. Fed chairman [[Jerome Powell]] said in December 2021 that the once-strong link between the money supply and inflation "ended about 40 years ago," due to financial innovations and deregulation. Previous Fed chairs [[Ben Bernanke]] and [[Alan Greenspan]], had previously concurred with this position. The broadest measure of [[money supply]], M2, increased about 45% from 2010 through 2015, far faster than GDP growth, yet the inflation rate declined during that period — the opposite of what monetarism would have predicted. A lower [[velocity of money]] than was historically the case<ref>{{cite news |title=Velocity of M2 Money Stock |url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V |publisher=[[Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]]}}</ref> was also cited for a diminished effect of growth in the money supply on inflation.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Hanke |first1=Steve H. |last2=John Greenwood |title=Inflation Was Always a Monetary Phenomenon, Never Transitory |url=https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/01/inflation-was-always-a-monetary-phenomenon-never-transitory/ |work=[[National Review]] |date=January 15, 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Lynch |first1=David J. |title=Inflation has Fed critics pointing to spike in money supply |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/06/federal-reserve-inflation-money-supply/ |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]] |date=February 6, 2022}}</ref>

===Heterodox views===

Additionally, there are theories about inflation accepted by economists outside of the [[mainstream economics|mainstream]]. The [[Austrian School]] stresses that inflation is not uniform over all assets, goods, and services. Inflation depends on differences in markets and on where newly created money and credit enter the economy. [[Ludwig von Mises]] said that inflation should refer to an increase in the quantity of money, that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the need for money, and that price inflation will necessarily follow, always leaving a poorer nation.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Mises |first1=Ludwig von |title=Human Action |url=https://oll.libertyfund.org/quote/ludwig-von-mises-lays-out-five-fundamental-truths-of-monetary-expansion-1949 |website=OLL |access-date=July 17, 2021 |archive-date=September 25, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210925084337/https://oll.libertyfund.org/quote/ludwig-von-mises-lays-out-five-fundamental-truths-of-monetary-expansion-1949 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last=Von Mises|first=Ludwig|title=The Theory of Money and Credit|year=1912|publisher=Yale University Press|page=240|url=https://mises.org/books/tmc.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/https://mises.org/books/tmc.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live|edition=1953|access-date=January 23, 2014|quote=In theoretical investigation there is only one meaning that can rationally be attached to the expression Inflation: an increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term, so as to include fiduciary media as well), that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (again in the broader sense of the term), so that a fall in the objective exchange-value of money must occur.}}</ref><ref>The Theory of Money and Credit, Mises (1912, [1981]), p. 272.</ref>

== Effects of inflation ==

=== General effect ===
[[File:Restaurant increasing prices by $1.00 due to inflation.jpg|thumb|upright=1.2|Restaurant increasing prices by $1.00 due to inflation]]

Inflation is the decrease in the purchasing power of a currency. That is, when the general level of prices rise, each monetary unit can buy fewer goods and services in aggregate. The effect of inflation differs on different sectors of the economy, with some sectors being adversely affected while others benefitting. For example, with inflation, those segments in society which own physical assets, such as property, stock etc., benefit from the price/value of their holdings going up, when those who seek to acquire them will need to pay more for them. Their ability to do so will depend on the degree to which their income is fixed. For example, increases in payments to workers and pensioners often lag behind inflation, and for some people income is fixed. Also, individuals or institutions with cash assets will experience a decline in the purchasing power of the cash. Increases in the price level (inflation) erode the real value of money (the functional currency) and other items with an underlying monetary nature.

Debtors who have debts with a fixed nominal rate of interest will see a reduction in the "real" interest rate as the inflation rate rises. The real interest on a loan is the nominal rate minus the inflation rate. The formula ''R = N-I'' approximates the correct answer as long as both the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate are small. The correct equation is ''r = n/i'' where ''r'', ''n'' and ''i'' are expressed as [[ratio]]s (e.g. 1.2 for +20%, 0.8 for −20%). As an example, when the inflation rate is 3%, a loan with a nominal interest rate of 5% would have a real interest rate of approximately 2% (in fact, it's 1.94%). Any unexpected increase in the inflation rate would decrease the real interest rate. Banks and other lenders adjust for this inflation risk either by including an inflation risk premium to fixed interest rate loans or lending at an adjustable rate.

=== Negative ===
[[File:NY near Times Square pizza shop inflation sign 2.jpg|thumb|New York City Pizza shop where prices were changed from the fixed sign price of "$0.99" to the new price of "$1.50". During periods of high and rising inflation, prices may rise faster than a fixed-price sign is able to accommodate.]]
High or unpredictable inflation rates are regarded as harmful to an overall economy. They add inefficiencies in the market and make it difficult for companies to budget or plan long-term. Inflation can act as a drag on productivity as companies are forced to shift resources away from products and services to focus on profit and losses from currency inflation.<ref name="Taylor" /> Uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money discourages investment and saving.<ref>{{cite journal | title=Personal Savings and Anticipated Inflation | journal=The Economic Journal | last=Bulkley | first=George | volume=91 | issue=361 |date=March 1981| pages=124–135 | doi=10.2307/2231702 | jstor=2231702}}</ref> Inflation hurts asset prices such as stock performance in the short-run, as it erodes non-energy corporates' profit margins and leads to central banks' policy tightening measures.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets |url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/08/20/Stock-Returns-and-Inflation-Redux-An-Explanation-from-Monetary-Policy-in-Advanced-and-463391 |access-date=2023-01-08 |website=IMF |language=en |archive-date=January 8, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230108213505/https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/08/20/Stock-Returns-and-Inflation-Redux-An-Explanation-from-Monetary-Policy-in-Advanced-and-463391 |url-status=live }}</ref> Inflation can also impose hidden tax increases. For instance, inflated earnings push taxpayers into higher income tax rates unless the tax brackets are indexed to inflation.

With high inflation, purchasing power is redistributed from those on fixed nominal incomes, such as some pensioners whose pensions are not indexed to the price level, towards those with variable incomes whose earnings may better keep pace with the inflation.<ref name=Taylor/> This redistribution of purchasing power will also occur between international trading partners. Where fixed [[exchange rate]]s are imposed, higher inflation in one economy than another will cause the first economy's exports to become more expensive and affect the [[balance of trade]]. There can also be negative effects to trade from an increased instability in currency exchange prices caused by unpredictable inflation.

;[[Hoarding]]: People buy durable and/or non-perishable commodities and other goods as stores of wealth, to avoid the losses expected from the declining purchasing power of money, creating shortages of the hoarded goods.

;Social unrest and revolts: Inflation can lead to massive demonstrations and revolutions. For example, inflation and in particular [[food inflation]] is considered one of the main reasons that caused the 2010–2011 [[Tunisian revolution]]<ref>"Les Egyptiens souffrent aussi de l'accélération de l'inflation", Céline Jeancourt-Galignani{{snd}}La Tribune, February 10, 2011.</ref> and the [[2011 Egyptian revolution]],<ref name="tna">{{Cite news|url=http://www.thenewage.co.za/8894-1007-53-Egypt_protests_a_ticking_time_bomb_Analysts|title=Egypt protests a ticking time bomb: Analysts|author=AFP|publisher=The New Age|date=January 27, 2011|access-date=January 29, 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110209104208/http://www.thenewage.co.za/8894-1007-53-Egypt_protests_a_ticking_time_bomb_Analysts|archive-date=February 9, 2011}}</ref> according to many observers including [[Robert Zoellick]],<ref>"Les prix alimentaires proches de 'la cote d'alerte'" – Le Figaro, with AFP, February 20, 2011.</ref> president of the [[World Bank]]. Tunisian president [[Zine El Abidine Ben Ali]] was ousted, Egyptian President [[Hosni Mubarak]] was also ousted after only 18 days of demonstrations, and protests soon spread in many countries of North Africa and Middle East.

;[[Hyperinflation]]: If inflation becomes too high, it can cause people to severely curtail their use of the currency, leading to an acceleration in the inflation rate. High and accelerating inflation grossly interferes with the normal workings of the economy, hurting its ability to supply goods. Hyperinflation can lead people to abandon the use of the country's currency in favour of external currencies ([[dollarization]]), as has been reported to have occurred in [[North Korea]].<ref>{{Cite news |author=Hanke |first=Steve H. |date=July 2013 |title=North Korea: From Hyperinflation to Dollarization? |url=http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/north-korea-hyperinflation-dollarization |website=Cato Institute |url-status=live |access-date=August 21, 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201226020043/https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/north-korea-hyperinflation-dollarization |archive-date=December 26, 2020}}</ref>

;[[Allocative efficiency]]: A change in the supply or demand for a good will normally cause its [[relative price]] to change, signaling the buyers and sellers that they should re-allocate resources in response to the new market conditions. But when prices are constantly changing due to inflation, price changes due to genuine relative [[price signal]]s are difficult to distinguish from price changes due to general inflation, so agents are slow to respond to them. The result is a loss of [[economic efficiency|allocative efficiency]].

;[[Shoe leather cost]]: High inflation increases the opportunity cost of holding cash balances and can induce people to hold a greater portion of their assets in interest paying accounts. However, since cash is still needed to carry out transactions this means that more "trips to the bank" are necessary to make withdrawals, proverbially wearing out the "shoe leather" with each trip.

;[[Menu cost]]
[[File:Subway pizza inflation 2022 jeh.jpg|thumb|upright=1.2|Low-cost price adjustment]]
: With high inflation, firms must change their prices often to keep up with economy-wide changes. But often changing prices is itself a costly activity whether explicitly, as with the need to print new menus, or implicitly, as with the extra time and effort needed to change prices constantly.

;[[Inflation tax|Tax]]: Inflation serves as a hidden tax on currency holdings.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Cooley|first1=Thomas F.|last2=Hansen|first2=Gary D.|date=1989|title=The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model|journal=The American Economic Review|volume=79|issue=4|pages=733–748|jstor=1827929|issn=0002-8282}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Inflation: A Tax on Money Holdings|url=https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/jfloyd/modules/inft.html|access-date=2021-10-07|website=www.economics.utoronto.ca|archive-date=November 11, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201111215101/https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/jfloyd/modules/inft.html|url-status=live}}</ref>

=== Positive ===

;Labour-market adjustments: Nominal wages are [[Sticky (economics)|slow to adjust downward]]. This can lead to prolonged disequilibrium and high unemployment in the labor market. Since inflation allows real wages to fall even if nominal wages are kept constant, moderate inflation enables labor markets to reach equilibrium faster.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Tobin |first1=James |date=1972 |title=Inflation and Unemployment |journal=American Economic Review |volume=62 |issue=1 |pages=1–18 |jstor=1821468 }}</ref>

;Room to maneuver: The primary tools for controlling the money supply are the ability to set the [[discount window|discount rate]], the rate at which banks can borrow from the central bank, and [[open market operations]], which are the central bank's interventions into the bonds market with the aim of affecting the nominal interest rate. If an economy finds itself in a recession with already low, or even zero, nominal interest rates, then the bank cannot cut these rates further (since negative nominal interest rates are impossible) to stimulate the economy{{snd}}this situation is known as a [[liquidity trap]].

;Mundell–Tobin effect: According to the Mundell–Tobin effect, an increase in inflation leads to an increase in capital investment, which leads to an increase in growth.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Edwards |first=Jeffrey A. |date=2006 |title=Politics, Inflation, and the Mundell–Tobin Effect |url=https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36443/ |access-date=2022-06-09 |website=mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de |language=en |archive-date=November 1, 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181101141711/https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36443/ |url-status=live }}</ref> The [[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences|Nobel]] laureate [[Robert Mundell]] noted that moderate inflation would induce savers to substitute lending for some money holding as a means to finance future spending. That substitution would cause market clearing real interest rates to fall.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Mundell|first=James|journal=Journal of Political Economy|volume=LXXI|year=1963|pages=280–283 |title=Inflation and Real Interest|issue=3|doi=10.1086/258771|s2cid=153733633}}</ref> The lower real rate of interest would induce more borrowing to finance investment. In a similar vein, Nobel laureate [[James Tobin]] noted that such inflation would cause businesses to substitute investment in [[physical capital]] (plant, equipment, and inventories) for money balances in their asset portfolios. That substitution would mean choosing the making of investments with lower rates of real return. (The rates of return are lower because the investments with higher rates of return were already being made before.)<ref>Tobin, J. ''Econometrica'', Vol. 33, (1965), pp. 671–684 "Money and Economic Growth"</ref> The two related effects are known as the [[Mundell–Tobin effect]]. Unless the economy is already overinvesting according to models of [[Economic growth|economic growth theory]], that extra investment resulting from the effect would be seen as positive.

;Instability with deflation:  Economist [[Sho-Chieh Tsiang|S.C. Tsiang]] noted that once substantial deflation is expected, two important effects will appear; both a result of money holding substituting for lending as a vehicle for saving.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Tsiang |first1=S. C. |title=A Critical Note on the Optimum Supply of Money |journal=Journal of Money, Credit and Banking |date=1969 |volume=1 |issue=2 |pages=266–280 |doi=10.2307/1991274 |jstor=1991274 |url=https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v1y1969i2p266-80.html |language=en |access-date=October 20, 2020 |archive-date=April 25, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210425223335/https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v1y1969i2p266-80.html |url-status=live |url-access=subscription }}</ref> The first was that continually falling prices and the resulting incentive to hoard money will cause instability resulting from the likely increasing fear, while money hoards grow in value, that the value of those hoards are at risk, as people realize that a movement to trade those money hoards for real goods and assets will quickly drive those prices up. Any movement to spend those hoards "once started would become a tremendous avalanche, which could rampage for a long time before it would spend itself."<ref>Tsiang, 1969 (p. 272).</ref> Thus, a regime of long-term deflation is likely to be interrupted by periodic spikes of rapid inflation and consequent real economic disruptions. The second effect noted by Tsiang is that when savers have substituted money holding for lending on financial markets, the role of those markets in channeling savings into investment is undermined. With nominal interest rates driven to zero, or near zero, from the competition with a high return money asset, there would be no price mechanism in whatever is left of those markets. With financial markets effectively euthanized, the remaining goods and physical asset prices would move in perverse directions. For example, an increased desire to save could not push interest rates further down (and thereby stimulate investment) but would instead cause additional money hoarding, driving consumer prices further down and making investment in consumer goods production thereby less attractive. Moderate inflation, once its expectation is incorporated into nominal interest rates, would give those interest rates room to go both up and down in response to shifting investment opportunities, or savers' preferences, and thus allow financial markets to function in a more normal fashion.

=== Cost-of-living allowance ===

{{See also|Cost of living}}

The real purchasing power of fixed payments is eroded by inflation unless they are inflation-adjusted to keep their real values constant. In many countries, employment contracts, pension benefits, and government entitlements (such as [[social security]]) are tied to a cost-of-living index, typically to the [[consumer price index]].<ref name="cola wars">{{cite web |url=http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0906/090806rp.htm |title=COLA Wars |date=September 8, 2006 |work=Government Executive |publisher=[[National Journal Group]] |access-date=September 23, 2008 |last=Flanagan |first=Tammy |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081005120234/http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0906/090806rp.htm |archive-date=October 5, 2008 }}</ref> A ''cost-of-living adjustment'' (COLA) adjusts salaries based on changes in a cost-of-living index.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kunkel |first=Sue |title=Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) |url=https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colasummary.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211127155725/https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/colasummary.html |archive-date=November 27, 2021 |access-date=2018-05-15 |website=www.ssa.gov |language=en-us}}</ref> It does not control inflation, but rather seeks to mitigate the consequences of inflation for those on fixed incomes. Salaries are typically adjusted annually in low inflation economies. During hyperinflation they are adjusted more often.<ref name="cola wars" /> They may also be tied to a cost-of-living index that varies by geographic location if the employee moves.

Annual escalation clauses in employment contracts can specify retroactive or future percentage increases in worker pay which are not tied to any index. These negotiated increases in pay are colloquially referred to as cost-of-living adjustments ("COLAs") or cost-of-living increases because of their similarity to increases tied to externally determined indexes.

== Control of inflation ==

[[Monetary policy]] is the policy enacted by the monetary authorities (most frequently the [[central bank]] of a nation) to accomplish their objectives.<ref name="palgrave">Lindsey, D. E.; Wallich, H. C. (2018). "Monetary Policy". In: ''The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics''. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Retrieved September 17, 2023.</ref> Among these, keeping inflation at a low and stable level is often a prominent objective, either directly via [[inflation targeting]] or indirectly, e.g. via a [[fixed exchange rate]] against a low-inflation currency area.

=== Historical approaches to inflation control ===

Historically, central banks and governments have followed various policies to achieve low inflation, employing various nominal anchors. Before [[World War I]], the [[gold standard]] was prevalent, but was eventually found to be detrimental to [[economic stability]] and employment, not least during the [[Great Depression]] in the 1930s.<ref name="Historical"/> For the first decades after [[World War II]], the [[Bretton Woods system]] initiated a [[fixed exchange rate system]] for most developed countries, tying their currencies to the US dollar, which again was directly convertible to gold.<ref>{{cite web |title=About the IMF: History: Cooperation and reconstruction (1944–1971) |url=https://www.imf.org/external/about/histcoop.htm |access-date=17 September 2023 |website=www.imf.org}}</ref> The system disintegrated in the 1970s, however, after which the major currencies started floating against each other.<ref>{{cite web |title=About the IMF: History: The end of the Bretton Woods System (1972–1981) |url=https://www.imf.org/external/about/histend.htm |access-date=17 September 2023 |website=www.imf.org}}</ref> During the 1970s many central banks turned to a [[money supply]] target recommended by [[Milton Friedman]] and other [[monetarist]]s, aiming for a stable growth rate of money to control inflation. However, it was found to be impractical because of the unstable relationship between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables, and was eventually abandoned by all major economies.<ref name="Historical">{{cite web |title=Federal Reserve Board – Historical Approaches to Monetary Policy |url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/historical-approaches-to-monetary-policy.htm |website=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |access-date=17 September 2023 |language=en |date=8 March 2018}}</ref> In 1990, New Zealand as the first country ever adopted an official [[inflation target]] as the basis of its monetary policy, continually adjusting interest rates to steer the country's inflation rate towards its official target. The strategy was generally considered to work well, and central banks in most [[developed countries]] have over the years adapted a similar strategy.<ref name=Holdingline>{{cite web |title=Inflation Targeting: Holding the Line |url=https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/72-inflation-targeting.htm |website=www.imf.org |access-date=17 September 2023}}</ref> As of 2023, the central banks of all [[G7]] member countries can be said to follow an inflation target, including the [[European Central Bank]] and the [[Federal Reserve]], who have adopted the main elements of inflation targeting without officially calling themselves inflation targeters.<ref name=Holdingline/> In emerging countries fixed exchange rate regimes are still the most common monetary policy.<ref name=IMF>{{cite book |last1=Department |first1=International Monetary Fund Monetary and Capital Markets |title=Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2022 |date=2023 |publisher=International Monetary Fund |isbn=979-8-4002-3526-9 |url=https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9798400235269/9798400235269.xml?code=imf.org |access-date=12 August 2023 |language=en }}</ref>

=== Fixed exchange rates ===
{{Main|Fixed exchange rate system}}
Under a fixed exchange rate currency regime, a country's currency is tied in value to another single currency or to a basket of other currencies. A fixed exchange rate is usually used to stabilize the value of a currency, vis-a-vis the currency it is pegged to. It can also be used as a means to control inflation if the currency area tied to itself maintains low and stable inflation. However, as the value of the reference currency rises and falls, so does the currency pegged to it. This essentially means that the inflation rate in the fixed exchange rate country is determined by the inflation rate of the country the currency is pegged to. In addition, a fixed exchange rate prevents a government from using domestic monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic stability.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Blanchard |first1=Olivier |title=Macroeconomics: a European perspective |last2=Amighini |first2=Alessia |last3=Giavazzi |first3=Francesco |date=2017 |publisher=Pearson |isbn=978-1-292-08567-8 |edition=3rd |location=Harlow, London, New York, Boston, San Francisco, Toronto, Sydney, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, New Delhi, Cape Town, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Madrid, Amsterdam, Munich, Paris, Milan |chapter=Output, the interest rate and the exchange rate}}</ref>

As of 2023, [[Denmark]] is the only [[OECD]] country which maintains a fixed exchange rate (against the [[euro]]), but it is frequently used as a monetary policy strategy in developing countries.<ref name=IMF/>

=== Gold standard ===
{{Main|Gold standard}}
[[File:Two 20kr gold coins.png|thumb|right|upright=1.2|Two 20 [[Swedish krona|krona]] gold coins from the [[Scandinavian Monetary Union]], a historical example of an international gold standard]]

The gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common medium of exchange is paper notes (or other monetary token) that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold. The standard specifies how the gold backing would be implemented, including the amount of [[Bullion coin|specie]] per currency unit. The currency itself has no ''innate value'' but is accepted by traders because it can be redeemed for the equivalent value of the commodity (specie). A [[Silver certificate (United States)|U.S. silver certificate]], for example, could be redeemed for an actual piece of silver.

Under a gold standard, the long term rate of inflation (or deflation) would be determined by the growth rate of the supply of gold relative to total output.<ref>{{cite encyclopedia|last =Bordo|first =Michael D.|date =2002|url =http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html|title =Gold Standard|encyclopedia =The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics|publisher =Library of Economics and Liberty|access-date =September 23, 2008|archive-date =October 5, 2010|archive-url =https://web.archive.org/web/20101005063134/http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html|url-status =live}}</ref> Critics argue that this will cause arbitrary fluctuations in the inflation rate, and that monetary policy would essentially be determined by an intersection of however much new gold was produced by mining and changing demand for gold for practical uses.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Barsky |first1=Robert B. |last2=DeLong |first2=J. Bradford |year=1991 |title=Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard |url=https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/qjecon/v106y1991i3p815-36.html |url-status=live |journal=Quarterly Journal of Economics |volume=106 |issue=3 |pages=815–836 |doi=10.2307/2937928 |jstor=2937928 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150620163911/https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/qjecon/v106y1991i3p815-36.html |archive-date=June 20, 2015 |access-date=September 27, 2008|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html |title=Why Not the Gold Standard? |last=DeLong |first=Brad |access-date=September 25, 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018035441/http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html |archive-date=October 18, 2010 }}</ref> The gold standard was historically found to make it more difficult to stabilize employment levels and avoid recessions and was eventually abandoned everywhere.<ref name="Historical"/><ref>{{cite web |last=Abdel-Monem |first=Tarik |title=What is The Gold Standard? |url=http://www.uiowa.edu/ifdebook/faq/faq_docs/gold_standard.shtml |publisher=University of Iowa Center for The Center for International Finance and Development |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091121143147/http://www.uiowa.edu/ifdebook/faq/faq_docs/gold_standard.shtml |archive-date=2009-11-21 }}</ref>

===Demurrage currency===
[[Freiwirtschaft]] economists theorize that [[demurrage currency]] could eliminate both inflation and deflation. There tends to be some interest cost that is built into the goods and services that consumers tend to purchase,<ref name="lietaer-1990">{{cite journal |last=Lietaer |first=Bernard A. |date=July 1990 |title=A Strategy for a Convertible Currency |url=https://folk.ntnu.no/tronda/finans/others/interest-free-money-formatted.pdf |journal=ICIS Forum |volume=20 |issue=3 |publisher=International Center for Integrative Studies |access-date=4 May 2025}}</ref>{{rp|p=4}} so if demurrage currency eliminates interest rates, then prices are less likely to increase. Demurrage would also naturally cause the money supply to decrease, thus causing deflation. If a central bank issues and monitors demurrage currency as Gesell originally proposed, then it could replace all the money that disappears due to demurrage by printing money at a similar rate.<ref name="baynham-2023">{{cite journal |url=https://www.noemamag.com/what-if-money-expired/ |title=What If Money Expired? |last=Baynham |first=Jacob |date=14 November 2023 |website=Noema Magazine |publisher=Berggruen Institute |access-date=26 April 2025}}</ref> The money printing could create just enough inflation to cancel out the natural deflation of demurrage, thus achieving an [[inflation target]] of 0%.<ref name="sidman-lecture-6-inflation">{{cite AV media |last=Sidman |first=Josh |date=3 April 2024 |title="Silvio Gesell: Beyond Capitalism vs Socialism" Class #6 |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GjX4PCcTlU?t=918 |time=15:18 |type=Video |language=English |publisher=Henry George School of Economics |access-date=23 May 2025}}</ref>

=== Wage and price controls ===

{{See also|Incomes policy}}
Another method attempted in the past have been wage and [[price controls]] ("incomes policies"). Temporary price controls may be used as a complement to other policies to fight inflation; price controls may make disinflation faster, while reducing the need for unemployment to reduce inflation. If price controls are used during a recession, the kinds of distortions that price controls cause may be lessened. However, economists generally advise against the imposition of price controls.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Why Price Controls Should Stay in the History Books |url=https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/mar/why-price-controls-should-stay-history-books |access-date=2024-09-05 |website=www.stlouisfed.org |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Committee |first=United States Joint Economic |title=The Economics of Price Controls - The Economics of Price Controls - United States Joint Economic Committee |url=https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2022/9/the-economics-of-price-controls |access-date=2024-09-05 |website=www.jec.senate.gov |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Price Controls: Still A Bad Idea |url=https://www.hoover.org/research/price-controls-still-bad-idea |access-date=2024-09-05 |website=Hoover Institution |language=en}}</ref>

Wage and price controls, in combination with rationing, have been used successfully in wartime environments. However, their use in other contexts is far more mixed. Notable failures of their use include [[Nixon shock|the 1972 imposition of wage and price controls]] by [[Richard Nixon]]. More successful examples include the [[The Accord|Prices and Incomes Accord]] in Australia and the [[Wassenaar Agreement]] in the [[Netherlands]].

In general, wage and price controls are regarded as a temporary and exceptional measures, only effective when coupled with policies designed to reduce the underlying causes of inflation during the [[Wage and price controls|wage and price]] control regime, for example, winning the war being fought.

=== Inflation targeting ===
{{Main|Inflation targeting}}
From its first inception in New Zealand in 1990, direct inflation targeting as a monetary policy strategy has spread to become prevalent among developed countries. The basic idea is that the central bank perpetually adjusts the [[bank rate]] to influence the country's inflation rate towards its official target. Changes in [[interest rate]]s affect [[aggregate demand]], [[aggregate supply]] and inflation in various ways, also called the [[monetary transmission mechanism]].<ref>{{cite web |title=Federal Reserve Board – Monetary Policy: What Are Its Goals? How Does It Work? |url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-what-are-its-goals-how-does-it-work.htm |website=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |access-date=17 September 2023 |language=en |date=July 29, 2021}}</ref> The relation between [[unemployment]] and inflation is known as the [[Phillips curve]].

Citizens show generally a high aversion to inflation.<ref name="z877">{{cite journal | last1=Binetti | first1=Alberto | last2=Nuzzi | first2=Francesco | last3=Stantcheva | first3=Stefanie | title=People's understanding of inflation | journal=Journal of Monetary Economics | volume=148 | date=2024 | doi=10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103652 | doi-access=free | article-number=103652}}</ref> In most [[OECD|OECD countries]], the inflation target is about 2%.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Inflation Reports |url=https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/mppubl.aspx |access-date=2022-12-06 |website=www.cba.am |archive-date=December 6, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221206004614/https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/mppubl.aspx |url-status=live }}</ref>

== See also ==

{{cols|colwidth=21em}}
* [[Artificial scarcity]]
* [[Core inflation]]
* [[Cost of living]]
* [[Cumulative process]]
* [[Fisher equation]]
* [[Food prices]]
* [[Hyperinflation]]
* [[Indexed unit of account]]
* [[Inflationism]]
* [[Inflation accounting]]
* [[Inflation beta]]
* [[Inflation derivative]]
* [[Inflation hedge]]
* [[Headline inflation]]
* [[Measuring economic worth over time]]
* [[Overconsumption]]
* [[Real versus nominal value (economics)]]
* [[Shrinkflation]] and [[Skimpflation]]
* [[Secular inflation]]
* [[Steady-state economy]]
* [[Stealth inflation]]
* [[Supply shock]]
* [[Welfare cost of inflation]]
{{colend}}

== Notes ==
{{reflist}}

== References ==

* {{Cite book |last1=Abel |first1=Andrew B. |last2=Bernanke |first2=Ben S. |last3=Croushore |first3=Dean |author-link1=Andrew Abel|author-link2=Ben Bernanke |title=Macroeconomics |publisher=Pearson |year=2005 |edition=5th |isbn=978-0-32119963-8}} Measurement of inflation is discussed in Ch. 2, pp.&nbsp;45–50; Money growth & Inflation in Ch. 7, pp.&nbsp;266–269; Keynesian business cycles and inflation in Ch. 9, pp.&nbsp;308–348.
* {{Cite book |last=Barro |first=Robert J. |author-link=Robert Barro |title=Macroeconomics |publisher=MIT Press |location=Cambridge, Massachusetts |year=1997 |page=895 |language=en-us |isbn=0-262-02436-5}}
* {{cite book |last=Blanchard |first=Olivier |author-link=Olivier Blanchard |title=Macroeconomics |date=2021 |publisher=Pearson |location=Harlow, England |isbn=978-0-134-89789-9 |edition=Eighth, global}}
* {{Cite book |last1=Burda |first1=Michael C. |author-link=Michael C. Burda |last2=Wyplosz |first2=Charles |title=Macroeconomics: a European text |publisher=[[Oxford University Press]] |location=Oxford [Oxfordshire] |year=1997 |isbn=0-19-877468-0 }}
* {{Cite book |last1=Hall |first1=Robert E. |author-link=Robert Hall (economist) |last2=Taylor |first2=John B. |author-link2=John B. Taylor |title=Macroeconomics |publisher=W.W. Norton |location=New York |year=1993 |page=[https://archive.org/details/macroeconomics00hall/page/637 637] |isbn=0-393-96307-1 |url-access=registration |url=https://archive.org/details/macroeconomics00hall/page/637 }}
* {{Cite book |last=Mankiw |first=N. Gregory |author-link=Greg Mankiw |title=Macroeconomics |publisher=Worth |year=2002 |edition=5th |isbn=978-0-71675237-0}} Measurement of inflation is discussed in Ch. 2, pp.&nbsp;22–32; Money growth & Inflation in Ch. 4, pp.&nbsp;81–107; Keynesian business cycles and inflation in Ch. 9, pp.&nbsp;238–255.
* {{cite book |last1=Romer |first1=David |author-link=David Romer |title=Advanced macroeconomics |date=2019 |publisher=McGraw-Hill |location=New York, NY |isbn=978-1-260-18521-8 |edition=Fifth}}

== Further reading ==


* [[Leonardo Auernheimer|Auernheimer, Leonardo]], "The Honest Government's Guide to the Revenue From the Creation of Money", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 3, May/June 1974, pp.&nbsp;598–606.
* [[William Baumol|Baumol, William J.]] and [[Alan S. Blinder]], ''Macroeconomics: Principles and Policy'', Tenth edition. Thomson South-Western, 2006. {{ISBN|0-324-22114-2}}.
* [[Federal Reserve Bank of Boston]], [http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf53/index.htm "Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130826003309/http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf53/index.htm |date=August 26, 2013 }}, Conference Series 53, June 9–11, 2008, Chatham, Massachusetts. (Also cf. [[Phillips curve]] article).
* [[Milton Friedman|Friedman, Milton]], Nobel lecture: [https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1976/friedman-lecture.pdf Inflation and unemployment] 1977.
* [[Frederic Mishkin|Mishkin, Frederic S.]], ''The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets'', New York, HarperCollins, 1995.
* [[World Bank]], 2018. [https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/inflation-in-emerging-and-developing-economies ''Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies'']. Edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge.

== External links ==
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{{Library resources box
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* [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG World Bank annual inflation rates for all countries]
* [https://calcinflation.com/ Inflation Calculator]
* [http://dailytools.in/FinanceInvestment/InflationCalculator General purpose compounded inflation calculator]
* [[Consumer price index|Consumer Price Indexes]]
** [https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm OECD]
** [http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ United States] ([[Bureau of Labor Statistics]])
** [https://web.archive.org/web/20080422012228/http://www.riksbank.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=27404 World Inflation (1290–2006)] ([[Swedish Riksbank]])
* US-specific
** [http://www.aier.org/cost-living-calculator Cost of Living Calculator (1913–present)] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190905192854/http://www.aier.org/cost-living-calculator |date=September 5, 2019 }} ([[American Institute for Economic Research|AIER]])
** [http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm Inflation Calculator (1913–present)] ([[US Bureau of Labor Statistics|US BLS]])
** [https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/theme/59 Inflation (historical documents)] ([[Federal Reserve Economic Data#Other Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data services|FRASER]])

{{Economics}}
{{United States – Commonwealth of Nations recessions}}
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[[Category:Inflation| ]]
[[Category:Financial economics]]
[[Category:Macroeconomic aggregates]]
[[Category:Macroeconomic problems]]