View source for Jan Tinbergen

{{Short description|Dutch economist and Nobel Laureate (1903–1994)}}
{{Infobox scientist
| name              = Jan Tinbergen
| image             = Jan Tinbergen 1982.jpg
| caption           = Tinbergen in 1982
| image_size        = 230px
| birth_date        = {{birth date|1903|4|12|df=y}}
| birth_place       = [[The Hague]], Netherlands
| death_date        = {{death date and age|1994|6|9|1903|4|12|df=y}}
| death_place       = The Hague, Netherlands
| nationality       = Dutch
| field             = [[Economics]], [[econometrics]]
| work_institution  = [[Erasmus University]]
| alma_mater        = [[Leiden University]]
| doctoral_advisor  = [[Paul Ehrenfest]]
| doctoral_students = [[Tjalling Koopmans]]<br>[[Hans van den Doel (Labour Party)|Hans van den Doel]]<br>[[Supachai Panitchpakdi]]<br>[[Ashok Mitra]]
| known_for         = First national [[macroeconomic model]]
| prizes            = [[Erasmus Prize]] (1967)<br />[[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences]] (1969)
}}

'''Jan Tinbergen''' ({{IPAc-en|ˈ|t|ɪ|n|b|ɜr|g|ən}} {{respell|TIN|bur|gən}}, {{IPA|nl|jɑn ˈtɪmbɛrɣə(n)|lang}}; 12 April 1903 – 9 June 1994) was a Dutch [[economist]] who was awarded the first [[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences]] in 1969, which he shared with [[Ragnar Frisch]] for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of  [[economic]] [[business process|processes]]. He is widely considered to be one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers of [[econometrics]].<ref>{{Cite book|last=Dekker|first=Erwin|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=BlEzEAAAQBAJ|title=Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994) and the Rise of Economic Expertise|date=2021|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-1108853200|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Dekker |first=Erwin |date=2022 |title=An "Ordo-Thinker" on the Left: Jan Tinbergen on the National and International Economic Order |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-9895888 |journal=History of Political Economy |volume=54 |issue=4 |pages=689–718 |doi=10.1215/00182702-9895888 |s2cid=248839847 |issn=0018-2702|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Magnus, Jan 1987">Magnus, Jan & Mary S. Morgan (1987) "The ET Interview: Professor J. Tinbergen" in: ''Econometric Theory'' 3, 1987, 117–142.</ref><ref>Willlekens, Frans (2008) ''International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates.'' New Jersey. John Wiley & Sons: 117.</ref>

His important contributions to econometrics include the development of the first [[Large-scale macroeconometric model|macroeconometric models]], the solution of the identification problem, and the understanding of dynamic models.<ref name="Magnus, Jan 1987" /> Tinbergen was a founding trustee of [[Economists for Peace and Security]]. In 1945, he founded the [[Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis]] (CPB) and was the agency's first director.

==Biography==
Tinbergen was the eldest of five children of Dirk Cornelis Tinbergen and Jeannette van Eek. His brother [[Nikolaas Tinbergen|Nikolaas "Niko" Tinbergen]] would also win a Nobel Prize (for [[Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine|physiology]], during 1973) for his work in [[ethology]], while his youngest brother [[Luuk Tinbergen|Luuk]] would become a famous [[ornithologist]]. Jan and Nikolaas Tinbergen are the only siblings to have both won Nobel Prizes.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/facts/|title=Nobel Prize Facts}}</ref>

Between 1921 and 1925, Tinbergen studied [[mathematics]] and [[physics]] at the [[University of Leiden]] under [[Paul Ehrenfest]]. During those years at Leiden, he had numerous discussions with Ehrenfest, [[Heike Kamerlingh Onnes|Kamerlingh Onnes]], [[Hendrik Lorentz]], [[Pieter Zeeman]], and [[Albert Einstein]].<ref name="r1">[https://web.archive.org/web/20120204044243/http://www.kb.nl/hkc/nobel/jtinbergen/jtinbergen.html Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994)] Koninklijke Bibliotheek (in Dutch)</ref><ref name="r2">{{MacTutor Biography|id=Tinbergen}}</ref>

After graduating, Tinbergen fulfilled his community service in the administration of a prison in Rotterdam and at the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in The Hague. He then returned to the [[University of Leiden]] and in 1929 defended his [[Doctor of Philosophy|PhD]] thesis titled "Minimumproblemen in de natuurkunde en de economie" (Minimisation problems in Physics and Economics).<ref>{{cite web|author=Jan Tinbergen |url=http://ilorentz.org/history/proefschriften/sources/Tinbergen_1929.pdf |title=Minimumproblemen in de natuurkunde en de economie |year=1929}}</ref> This topic was suggested by Ehrenfest and allowed Tinbergen to combine his interests in mathematics, physics, economics and politics. At that time, CBS established a new department of business surveys and mathematical statistics, and Tinbergen became its first chairman, working at CBS until 1945. Access to the vast CBS data helped Tinbergen in testing his theoretical models. In parallel, starting from 1931, he was professor of statistics at the [[University of Amsterdam]], and in 1933 he was appointed associate professor of mathematics and statistics at The [[Netherlands School of Economics]], Rotterdam, where he stayed until 1973.<ref name="r1" /><ref name="r2" />

From 1929 to 1945 he worked for the [[Netherlands|Dutch]] statistical office and served as consultant at the [[Economic and Financial Organization of the League of Nations|Economic and Financial Organization]] of the [[League of Nations]] (1936–1938). In 1945 he became the first director of the [[CPB (Netherlands)|Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis]] and left this position in 1955 to focus on education. He spent one year as a visiting professor at the [[Harvard University]] and then returned to the Dutch Economic Institute (the successor of the Netherlands School of Economics). In parallel, he provided consulting services to international organizations and governments of various developing countries, such as United Arab Republic, Turkey, Venezuela, Surinam, Indonesia and Pakistan.<ref name=r1/><ref name=r2/><ref>[https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1969/tinbergen.html Curriculum Vitae]. nobelprize.org</ref>

Tinbergen became a member of the [[Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences]] in 1946.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.dwc.knaw.nl/biografie/pmknaw/?pagetype=authorDetail&aId=PE00003349 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200918210046/https://www.dwc.knaw.nl/biografie/pmknaw/?pagetype=authorDetail&aId=PE00003349 |title=Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994) |publisher=Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences |archive-date=18 September 2020}}</ref> He was also a member of the International Academy of Science, Munich. In 1956 he founded the [[Econometric Institute]] at the [[Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam]] together with [[Henri Theil]], who also was his successor in [[Rotterdam]]. In 1960, he was elected as a [[Fellow of the American Statistical Association]] and the [[American Academy of Arts and Sciences]].<ref>[http://www.amstat.org/awards/fellowslist.cfm View/Search Fellows of the ASA] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160616161612/http://www.amstat.org/awards/fellowslist.cfm |date=2016-06-16 }}, accessed 2016-07-23.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Jan Tinbergen |url=https://www.amacad.org/person/jan-tinbergen |access-date=2022-11-10 |website=American Academy of Arts & Sciences |language=en}}</ref> The [[Tinbergen Institute]] was named in his honour. The [[International Institute of Social Studies]] (ISS) awarded its Honorary Fellowship to Jan Tinbergen in 1962.<ref name=r1/><ref name=r2/> He was elected to the [[American Philosophical Society]] in 1963.<ref>{{Cite web |title=APS Member History |url=https://search.amphilsoc.org/memhist/search?creator=Jan+Tinbergen&title=&subject=&subdiv=&mem=&year=&year-max=&dead=&keyword=&smode=advanced |access-date=2022-11-10 |website=search.amphilsoc.org}}</ref> In 1968, he received an honorary doctorate from [[Sir George Williams University]], which later became [[Concordia University]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://archives.concordia.ca/tinbergen|title=Honorary Degree Citation – Jan Tinbergen* {{!}} Concordia University Archives|website=archives.concordia.ca|access-date=2016-03-30}}</ref> He was elected to the United States [[National Academy of Sciences]] in 1974.<ref>{{Cite web |title=J. Tinbergen |url=http://www.nasonline.org/member-directory/deceased-members/45899.html |access-date=2022-11-10 |website=www.nasonline.org}}</ref>

==Work==
[[File:Jan Tinbergen 1975.jpg|360px|thumb|Minister [[Jan Pronk|Pronk]], Tinbergen and De Seynes at an economy symposium in The Hague, 23 May 1975]]

For many, Jan Tinbergen became known for the so-called 'Tinbergen Norm' often discussed long after his death. There is no written work of Tinbergen in which he himself states it formally.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Akkerboom, Broer|url=http://www.mejudice.nl/artikelen/detail/de-tinbergennorm-bestaat-niet|title=De Tinbergennorm bestaat niet|journal=Me Judice, 14 Mei 2015}}</ref> It is generally believed to be the principle that, if the ratio between the greatest and least income exceeds 5, it becomes disadvantageous for the societal unit involved. Tinbergen himself discussed some technicalities of a five-to-one income distribution ratio in an article published in 1981.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Tinbergen, Jan|url=http://repub.eur.nl/pub/15463/1981Economist.pdf|title=Misunderstandings concerning income distribution policies|year=1981|journal=De Economist|volume=129|issue=1|pages=13|doi=10.1007/BF01705865|hdl=1765/15463 |citeseerx=10.1.1.1030.5758|s2cid=154797347}}</ref> Apart from specifics about a five-to-one ratio, it is true in general that Tinbergen's grand theme was [[income distribution]] and the search for an optimal social order.

Tinbergen developed the first national comprehensive [[macroeconomic model]], which he first developed in 1936 for the [[Netherlands]], and later applied to the [[United States]] and the [[United Kingdom]].<ref>{{Cite journal | doi = 10.1016/0264-9993(89)90005-9| title = When it all began| journal = Economic Modelling| volume = 6| issue = 2| pages = 203| year = 1989| last1 = Dhaene | first1 = G. | last2 = Barten | first2 = A.P. }}</ref>

In his work on macroeconomic modelling and economic policy making, Tinbergen classified some economic quantities as ''targets'' and others as ''[[macroeconomic policy instruments|instruments]]''.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Klein, Lawrence|doi=10.1023/B:ECOT.0000023251.14849.4f|title=The Contribution of Jan Tinbergen to Economic Science|year=2004|journal=De Economist|volume=152|issue=2|pages=155–157|s2cid=154689887}}</ref> Targets are those macroeconomic variables the policy maker wishes to influence, whereas instruments are the variables that the policy maker can control directly. Tinbergen emphasized that achieving the desired values of a certain number of targets requires the policy maker to control an equal number of instruments. This is known as the [[Tinbergen Rule]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Del Rio |first1=Pablo |last2=Howlett |first2=Michael P. |title=Beyond the'Tinbergen Rule'in Policy Design: Matching Tools and Goals in Policy Portfolios. |journal=Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Research Paper |date=2013 |issue=13–01 |url=https://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/design/article/download/534/470 |access-date=21 December 2020}}</ref>

Tinbergen's classification remains influential today, underlying the theory of monetary policy used by [[central bank]]s. Many central banks today regard the [[inflation rate]] as their target; the policy instrument they use to control inflation is the short-term [[interest rate]].<ref>Blinder, Alan (1999), [https://archive.org/details/centralbankingin0000blin_n3s4 ''Central Banking in Theory and Practice.''] MIT Press, {{ISBN|0262522608}}.</ref>

Tinbergen's work on macroeconomic models was later continued by [[Lawrence Klein]], contributing to another [[Nobel Prize in Economics|Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences]]. For his cultural contributions, he was given the [[Gouden Ganzenveer]] in 1985.<ref>{{cite web
 |title=Laureaten De Gouden Ganzenveer vanaf 1955
 |publisher=Stichting De Gouden Ganzenveer
 |date=2009
 |url=http://www.goudenganzenveer.nl/laureaten.html
 |access-date=2009-07-28
 |url-status=dead
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090225223755/http://www.goudenganzenveer.nl/laureaten.html
 |archive-date=2009-02-25
}}</ref>

Tinbergen's econometric modelling lead to a lively debate with several known participants including [[J.M. Keynes]], [[Ragnar Frisch]] and [[Milton Friedman]]. The debate is sometime referred to as the [[Tinbergen debate]]. (see [[Keynes–Tinbergen debate]].)<ref>{{cite journal|author=Leeson, R.|year=1998|title=The Ghosts I Called I Can't Get Rid of Now: the Keynes-Tinbergen-Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics|journal=History of Political Economy|volume= 30|issue=1|pages= 51–94|doi=10.1215/00182702-30-1-51|url=http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/5749/1/The_Ghosts.pdf}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author=Louçã, F. |doi=10.1080/10427719900000074 |url=http://courses.umass.edu/econ804/LoucaBackgroundFiles1.pdf |title=The econometric challenge to Keynes: Arguments and contradictions in the early debates about a late issue |year=1999 |journal=The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought |volume=6 |issue=3 |pages=404–438 |hdl=10400.5/25984 }}{{dead link|date=April 2017 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author=Peden, W.|year=2022|title=Probability and Statistics in the Tinbergen-Keynes Debates|journal= Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics|volume= 15|issue=2|pages= 100–119|doi=10.23941/ejpe.v15i2.710|url=https://www.ejpe.org/journal/article/view/710|doi-access=free}}</ref>

==Selected publications==
* ''World security and equity''. Aldershot, 1990. {{ISBN|1852781874}}.
* ''Production, income and welfare: the search for an optimal social order''. Brighton, 1985 {{ISBN|0745000142}}.
* ''Economic policy: Principles and Design''. Amsterdam, 1978. {{ISBN|0720431298}}.
* ''Der Dialog Nord-Süd: Informationen zur Entwicklungspolitik''. Frankfurt am Main: Europ. Verlagsanstalt, 1977.
* ''Income distribution: analysis and policies''. New York, 1975. {{ISBN|0444108327}}.
* ''The Dynamics of Business Cycles: A Study in Economic Fluctuations''. Chicago: U of Chicago P, 1974. {{ISBN|0226804186}}.
* ''The Element of Space in Development Planning'' (together with L.B.M. Mennes and J.G. Waardenburg), Amsterdam, 1969
* ''Development planning''. London, 1967.
* Central planning. ''Studies in comparative economics'', 4. New Haven, 1964.
* ''Shaping the world economy, suggestions for an international economic policy''. New York, 1962.
* ''Selected papers''. Amsterdam, 1959
* ''Economic Policy: Principles and Design'', Amsterdam, 1956
* ''Centralization and Decentralization in Economic Policy'', Amsterdam, 1954 {{ISBN|0313230773}}.
* ''Econometrics''. London, 1953.
* ''On the Theory of Economic Policy''. Second edition (1952) is Volume 1 of ''Contributions to Economic Analysis'', Amsterdam: North-Holland.
* ''Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1870–1914'', Amsterdam, 1951
* ''[https://www.delpher.nl/nl/boeken/view?coll=boeken&identifier=MMKB18B:059402000 International economic co-operation]''. Amsterdam, 1945.
* ''Business Cycles in the United States, 1919–1932'', Geneva, 1939 and New York, 1968.
* An econometric approach to business cycle problems. In: ''Impasses économiques; 2; Actualités scientifiques et industrielles'', {{ISSN|0365-6861}}; 525. Paris, 1937.

;About Tinbergen
* [[Nicola Acocella|Acocella, Nicola]], Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni (2006), ''Tinbergen and Theil meet Nash: controllability in policy games'', in: ''Economics Letters'', 90(2): 213–218.
* [[Nicola Acocella|Acocella, Nicola]], Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni and Hughes Hallett, A. [2010], ''Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations'', in: ''Journal of Macroeconomics'', 32(1): 55–67.
* [[Nicola Acocella|Acocella, Nicola]] Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni and Hughes Hallett, A. [2011], ''Tinbergen controllability and n-player LQ-games'', in: ''Economics Letters'', 113: 32–4.
* Murshed, SM. 2021. "[[doi:10.1177/0022343320969771|Reformulating Jan Tinbergen's normative vision on welfare and security.]]" ''Journal of Peace Research''.

==See also==
* [[List of economists]]

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
{{wikiquote}}
{{Commons category}}
* {{MathGenealogy}}
* [http://www.iisg.nl/bwsa/bios/tinbergen.html Tinbergen, Jan] in: ''Biografisch Woordenboek van het Socialisme en de Arbeidersbeweging in Nederland''
* [http://jtc-roosendaal.nl/ Jan Tinbergen College] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231123202055/https://www.jtc-roosendaal.nl/ |date=2023-11-23 }} (Dutch website)
* [https://ideas.repec.org/e/pti4.html IDEAS/RePEc]
* [http://www.iss.nl/about_iss/honorary_fellows/jan_tinbergen/ Profile at The International Institute of Social Studies] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150922160234/http://www.iss.nl/about_iss/honorary_fellows/jan_tinbergen/ |date=2015-09-22 }} (ISS)
* {{Cite encyclopedia |title=Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994) |url=http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Tinbergen.html |encyclopedia=[[The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics]] |edition=2nd |series=[[Library of Economics and Liberty]] |publisher=[[Liberty Fund]] |year=2008|isbn=978-0865976665 |editor-first=David R.|editor-last=Henderson |editor-link=David R. Henderson |page=598 }}
* {{PM20}}
* {{Nobelprize}}

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{{s-ttl | title = [[List of Nobel Memorial Prize laureates in Economics|Laureate of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics]] | years = 1969 |alongside= [[Ragnar Frisch]] }}
{{s-aft | after = [[Paul A. Samuelson]] }}
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{{Nobel laureates in economics 1969–1975}}
{{1969 Nobel Prize winners}}
{{Presidents of the Econometric Society}}

{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Tinbergen, Jan}}
[[Category:1903 births]]
[[Category:1994 deaths]]
[[Category:Dutch Nobel laureates]]
[[Category:Nobel laureates in Economics]]
[[Category:Writers from The Hague]]
[[Category:Leiden University alumni]]
[[Category:Academic staff of Erasmus University Rotterdam]]
[[Category:Dutch econometricians]]
[[Category:Fellows of the American Statistical Association]]
[[Category:Fellows of the Econometric Society]]
[[Category:Presidents of the Econometric Society]]
[[Category:Directors of the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis]]
[[Category:20th-century Dutch economists]]
[[Category:Members of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences]]
[[Category:Foreign associates of the National Academy of Sciences]]
[[Category:Corresponding fellows of the British Academy]]
[[Category:International members of the American Philosophical Society]]