View source for Papabile

{{Short description|Catholic cardinals likely to become pope}}
{{title language|it}}
{{Distinguish|Papamobile}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2014}}
{{Politics of Vatican City}}
{{Italian language |lists=collapsed}}

'''{{lang|it|Papabile}}''' ({{IPAc-en|p|ə|ˈ|p|ɑː|b|ɪ|l|eɪ}} {{respell|pə|PAH|bil|ay}}, {{IPAc-en|UKalso|-|l|i}} {{respell|-|ee}},<ref>{{Cite Merriam-Webster|papabile|access-date=3 June 2019}}</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20190603184422/https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/us/papabile "papabile"] (US) and {{Cite dictionary |url=http://www.lexico.com/definition/papabile |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201105005603/https://www.lexico.com/definition/papabile |url-status=dead |archive-date=2020-11-05 |title=papabile |dictionary=[[Lexico]] UK English Dictionary |publisher=[[Oxford University Press]]}}</ref> {{IPA|it|paˈpaːbile|lang}}; plural: {{lang|it|papabili}}; {{lit|pope-able|able to be pope|lk=yes}}) is an [[Italian language|Italian]] word [[Neologism|neologised]] in the fifteenth century at least, used internationally in many languages to describe a [[Catholic Church|Catholic]] man—in practice, always a [[Cardinal (Catholic Church)|cardinal]]—who is thought of as a likely or possible candidate to be [[Conclave|elected]] [[pope]] by the [[College of Cardinals]]. The term has been popularised by [[Vaticanologist]]s.

In some cases, cardinals who were considered {{lang|it|papabile}} were elected pope. Among them are [[Eugenio Pacelli]] (Pius XII) in 1939, [[Giovanni Montini|Giovanni Battista Montini]] (Paul VI) in 1963, [[Joseph Ratzinger]] (Benedict XVI) in 2005, [[Jorge Mario Bergoglio]] (Francis) in 2013, and [[Robert Francis Prevost]] (Leo XIV) in 2025.

At times, however, the college have elected candidates not considered {{lang|it|papabile}} by most Vatican watchers. In recent years, these have included [[Angelo Roncalli]] (John XXIII) in 1958, [[Albino Luciani]] (John Paul I) in August 1978, and [[Karol Wojtyła]] (John Paul II) in October 1978. From this is derived a famous [[proverb]]: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal".

The list of {{lang|it|papabili}} changes as cardinals age. For instance, [[Carlo Maria Martini]] was thought to be {{lang|it|papabile}} until he retired from his [[episcopal see|see]] upon reaching 75 years of age in 2002.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Allen Jr. |first=John L. |date=2013-03-13 |title=Papabile of the Day: The Men Who Could Be Pope |url=https://www.ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/papabile-day-men-who-could-be-pope-12 |access-date=2023-10-16 |website=National Catholic Reporter |language=en}}</ref>

== Terminology ==
The term {{lang|it|papabile}} is at least as old as the fifteenth century, since it is found in the {{lang|la|[[Catholicon Anglicum]]}}.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Herrtage|first=Sidney John Hervon|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=I7wKAAAAYAAJ&q=papabilis|title=Catholicon Anglicum: An English-Latin Wordbook, Dated 1483|date=1882|publisher=By E. Pickard Hall, M.A. and J.H. Stacy|pages=268|language=en|access-date=21 December 2021|archive-date=12 December 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221212193801/https://books.google.com/books?id=I7wKAAAAYAAJ&q=papabilis|url-status=live}}</ref>

In [[Italian language|Italian]], the word {{lang|it|papabile}} is also used in non-ecclesiastical contexts, particularly as [[slang]]. This includes usage in reference to [[short list]] candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.<ref>{{cite web |title=Papabile |url=http://www.treccani.it/vocabolario/papabile/ |work=Enciclopedia Treccani |publisher=Fondazione Treccani |access-date=3 March 2013 |archive-date=27 March 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140327234316/http://www.treccani.it/vocabolario/papabile/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

=={{lang|it|Papabili}} elected pope==
* [[Pope Pius VIII|Francesco Castiglioni]] (elected as '''Pius VIII''' in [[1829 conclave|1829]]) was {{lang|it|papabile}} at both the [[Papal conclave, 1823|1823 conclave]] and at the [[Papal conclave, 1829|1829 conclave]].<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12">{{cite web|title=The Triple Crown: An Account of the Papal Conclaves – Leo XII (De la Genga)|url=http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-leo-xii.htm|author=Valérie Pirie|access-date=21 January 2014|archive-date=20 August 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200820154318/http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-leo-xii.htm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="Pirie - Pius 8">{{cite web|title=The Triple Crown: An Account of the Papal Conclaves – Pius VIII (Castiglione)|url=http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-pius-viii.htm|author=Valérie Pirie|access-date=21 January 2014|archive-date=26 June 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170626040116/http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-pius-viii.htm|url-status=live}} {{unreliable source?|date=March 2016}}</ref> During his lifetime, [[Pope Pius VII]] referred to Castiglioni as "Pope Pius VIII".<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12" /><ref name="Pirie - Pius 8" /> At the 1823 conclave, Cardinal Annibale della Genga (ultimately elected as [[Pope Leo XII]] at this conclave) stated that Castiglioni would someday be "Pope Pius VIII". Castiglioni came close to being elected at said conclave, but lost support due to being identified as being close to [[Ercole Consalvi]], a moderate and Secretary of State of the late Pope Pius VII.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12" /><ref name="Pirie - Pius 8" /> Consalvi later died during Leo XII's pontificate and Castiglioni, a {{lang|it|papabile}} once more when Leo XII himself died, was subsequently elected pope at the 1829 conclave.<ref name="Pirie - Pius 8" /> His election was facilitated in that of the other {{lang|it|papabili}}, [[Bartolomeo Pacca]] was opposed by France while [[Emmanuele de Gregorio]] failed to get the support of the majority of the other cardinals. Upon his election, Castiglioni indeed took the name of Pius VIII, given that his two immediate predecessors had previously called him by that name.
* [[Pope Leo XIII|Gioachino Pecci]] (elected as '''Leo XIII''' in [[1878 conclave|1878]]).<ref name="Pirie - Leo 13">{{cite web|title=The Triple Crown: An Account of the Papal Conclaves – Concluding Chapter: Leo XIII and His Successors|url=http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-concluding-chapter.htm|author=Valérie Pirie|access-date=21 January 2014|archive-date=4 March 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304093934/http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-concluding-chapter.htm|url-status=live}}</ref>{{unreliable source?|date=March 2016}} The majority of the cardinals who headed to Rome for this conclave had already decided to support Pecci who was [[Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church|Camerlengo]]. Pecci was also perceived to be the opposite of the recently deceased [[Pope Pius IX|Pius IX]].<ref name="Pirie - Leo 13" />
* [[Pope Benedict XV|Giacomo della Chiesa]] (elected as '''Benedict XV''' in [[1914 conclave|1914]])<ref name="Domenico">{{cite book|title=Encyclopedia of Modern Christian Politics: Benedict XV (Giacomo della Chisa)|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Z8ZixRcQfV8C&q=giacomo+della+chiesa+papabile&pg=PA49|author=Domenico, Roy Palmer|isbn=9780313323621|date=January 2006|access-date=2 November 2020|archive-date=12 January 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230112150412/https://books.google.com/books?id=Z8ZixRcQfV8C&q=giacomo+della+chiesa+papabile&pg=PA49|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|author=Lorenzo Cappelletti|title=Lay that is Christian|newspaper=30 Days in the Church and the World|url=http://www.30giorni.it/articoli_id_10413_l3.htm|date=August 2006|access-date=31 January 2014|archive-date=3 February 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140203021019/http://www.30giorni.it/articoli_id_10413_l3.htm|url-status=live}}</ref>
* [[Pope Pius XII|Eugenio Pacelli]] (elected as '''Pius XII''' in [[1939 conclave|1939]]).<ref name="Weigel">{{cite journal|journal=The Madison Catholic Herald Online|url=http://www.madisoncatholicherald.org/2005-04-21/columns.html|last=Weigel|first=George|title=Conclaves: Surprises abound in the Sistine Chapel|date=21 April 2005|access-date=13 February 2014|archive-date=15 February 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120215010639/http://www.madisoncatholicherald.org/2005-04-21/columns.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Prior to his death, Pope [[Pope Pius XI|Pius XI]] strongly hinted that he favoured Pacelli as his successor.<ref name="Weigel" /> During his final [[Papal consistory|consistory]] on 15 December 1937, Pius XI strongly hinted to the cardinals that he expected Pacelli to be his successor, saying: "He is in your midst."<ref>"''Medius vestrum stetit quem vos nescetis''. Everybody knew what the pope meant". Domenico Cardinale Tardini, Pio XII, Tipografia Poliglotta Vaticana, 1960, p. 105 {{in lang|it}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=Lehnert |first=Pascalina |title=Ich durfte Ihm Dienen: Erinnerungen an Papst Pius XII |publisher=Naumann |location=Würzburg |year=1986 |page=57 |isbn=3885670410 |language=de}}</ref> He had previously been quoted as saying: "When today the Pope dies, you'll get another one tomorrow, because the Church continues. It would be a much bigger tragedy, if Cardinal Pacelli dies, because there is only one. I pray every day, God may send another one into one of our [[Seminary|seminaries]], but as of today, there is only one in this world."<ref>{{cite book |last=Lehnert |first=Pascalina |title=Ich durfte Ihm Dienen: Erinnerungen an Papst Pius XII |publisher=Naumann |location=Würzburg |year=1986 |page=49 |isbn=3885670410 |language=de}}</ref>
* [[Pope Paul VI|Giovanni Battista Montini]] (elected as '''Paul VI''' in [[1963 conclave|1963]]). Montini had been discussed as a {{lang|it|papabile}} candidate in the 1958 conclave despite not having been a cardinal at the time; [[Giuseppe Siri]] reacted with horror that a non-cardinal would even be considered. It was also rumoured some of the French cardinals voted in favor of Montini during that conclave. [[Pope John XXIII|John XXIII]] had sent vague signals during his reign that he believed his friend Montini (whom he made a cardinal) would be his successor.<ref name="PapalConclave1963">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-orhFzr2xeY Conclave A.D. 1963 – Election of Pope Paul VI] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160409044709/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-orhFzr2xeY |date=9 April 2016 }}. YouTube video. Accessed 19 October 2013</ref>
* [[Pope Benedict XVI|Joseph Ratzinger]] (elected as '''Benedict XVI''' in [[2005 conclave|2005]]).<ref>{{cite news|last=Oaks|first=Tammy|title=Bookmakers lay odds on new pope|url=http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/04/18/pope.betting/index.html?iref=allsearch|access-date=15 March 2013|newspaper=CNN International|date=April 19, 2005|archive-date=3 February 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140203115347/http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/04/18/pope.betting/index.html?iref=allsearch|url-status=live}}</ref> On 2 January 2005, ''[[Time (magazine)|Time]]'' magazine quoted unnamed Vatican sources as saying that Ratzinger (then [[Joseph Ratzinger as Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith|serving as Prefect]] for the [[Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith|Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith]]) was a front runner to succeed [[Pope John Paul II|John Paul II]] should he die or become too ill to continue as pope. Upon the death of John Paul II, the ''[[Financial Times]]'' gave the odds of Ratzinger becoming pope as 7–1, the lead position but close to his rivals on the liberal wing of the church. In April 2005, before his election as pope, he was identified as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by ''Time''.<ref name="Time 100">{{cite news | url=http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1972656_1972691_1973018,00.html | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100618214719/http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1972656_1972691_1973018,00.html | url-status=dead | archive-date=18 June 2010 | title=Time 100 2005 | magazine=Time | date=18 April 2005 | access-date=3 April 2013 | author=Sullivan, Andrew}}</ref> At the [[Papal conclave|conclave]], a sentiment was: "it was, if not Ratzinger, who? And as they came to know him, the question became, why not Ratzinger?"<ref name="goodstein">Goodstein, Laurie and Elisabetta Povoledo. [https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/world/europe/among-cardinals-deep-divisions-over-next-pope.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 "Before Smoke Rises at Vatican, It's Romans vs. the Reformers,"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160722190622/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/world/europe/among-cardinals-deep-divisions-over-next-pope.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 |date=22 July 2016 }} ''The New York Times''. 11 March 2013; Ivereigh, Austen. [http://www.osvdailytake.com/2013/03/ivereigh-in-rome-does-cardinal.html "Does cardinal confusion spell a long conclave?"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130316114559/http://www.osvdailytake.com/2013/03/ivereigh-in-rome-does-cardinal.html |date=16 March 2013 }} ''Our Sunday Visitor''. 11 March By Austen Ivereigh; excerpt, "A former communications director to the Archbishop emeritus of Westminster (England), Cardinal [[Cormac Murphy-O'Connor]], he accompanied the cardinal to Rome in 2005 for the funeral of Pope John Paul II and election of Pope Benedict XVI". Retrieved 12 March 2013.</ref> On 19 April 2005, he was elected on the second day after four ballots.<ref name="goodstein"/>
* [[Pope Francis|Jorge Mario Bergoglio]] (elected as '''Francis''' in [[2013 conclave|2013]]).<ref name="businessinsider">{{cite web |work=[[Business Insider]] |url=http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-man-who-will-be-the-next-pope-2012-4?op=1 |title=One Of These Men Will Be The Next Pope |date=11 February 2013 |access-date=15 February 2013 |archive-date=14 March 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130314045351/http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-man-who-will-be-the-next-pope-2012-4?op=1 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="pontifficator">[https://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/mar/12/choose-your-own-pope-pontifficator "Choose your own pope – with our interactive Pontifficator"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170101091614/https://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/mar/12/choose-your-own-pope-pontifficator |date=1 January 2017 }}. ''[[The Guardian]]''. 12 March 2013. Contains descriptions of all 115 cardinal electors, 13 of whom are marked as papabili.</ref><ref name="huffingtonpost.com">[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/10/papabile-2013-top-contenders_n_2847774.html Huffington Post Papabile 2013: Top Contenders To Be Next Pope As We Enter Conclave] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131113131520/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/10/papabile-2013-top-contenders_n_2847774.html |date=13 November 2013 }}. March 10, 2013.  Retrieved 15 March 2013.</ref> Bergoglio was a {{lang|it|papabile}} at the [[2005 papal conclave|2005 conclave]]<ref name="National Catholic Reporter">{{cite news|last=Allen Jr.|first=John L.|title=Handicapping the conclave|url=http://www.nationalcatholicreporter.org/update/conclave/pt041405a.htm|access-date=15 March 2013|newspaper=National Catholic Reporter|date=14 April 2005|archive-date=6 August 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120806032925/http://www.nationalcatholicreporter.org/update/conclave/pt041405a.htm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile">{{cite news | url=http://ncronline.org/node/46476 | title=Papabile of the Day: The Men Who Could Be Pope (Profile: New pope, Jesuit Bergoglio, was runner-up in 2005 conclave) | newspaper=[[National Catholic Reporter]] | date=3 March 2013 | access-date=15 March 2013 | author=John L. Allen Jr. | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130315020644/http://ncronline.org/node/46476 | archive-date=15 March 2013 | url-status=live }}</ref> and was also considered a contender at the 2013 conclave<ref name="businessinsider"/><ref name="pontifficator"/><ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> due to his being the reported "second-place finisher" at the 2005 conclave.<ref name="businessinsider"/><ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> According to [[John L. Allen Jr.]], some of the participants in the 2005 conclave who were also participating in the 2013 conclave were "getting another bite at the apple".<ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> Despite this, his election still came as a surprise because some of the commentators who considered him {{lang|it|papabile}} made the observation that there were "compelling reasons to believe that Bergoglio's window of opportunity to be pope has already closed"<ref name="John Allen Bergoglio Profile"/> and that "his 'moment' seems to be over".<ref name="businessinsider"/>
* [[Pope Leo XIV|Robert Francis Prevost]] (elected as '''Leo XIV''' in [[2025 conclave|2025]]).<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-05-02 |title=Who will be pope? Meet some possible contenders |url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/who-will-be-pope-meet-some-possible-contenders |access-date=2025-05-08 |website=PBS News |language=en-us}}</ref> Though considered a dark horse candidate, Prevost was a prominent ''papabile'' for [[North America]] for the 2025 papal conclave.{{Citation needed|date=May 2025|reason=Generally, there were very little sources describing him as a leading papabile. Describing him as the leading contender from North America after his election seems disingenuous}} He is the first pontiff coming from North America and the first pope born in the United States.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-05-08 |title=Who is Robert Prevost, the new Pope Leo XIV and first American Pope? |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ln80lzk7ko |access-date=2025-05-08 |website=www.bbc.com |language=en-GB}}</ref>

=={{lang|it|Papabili}} not elected==
Being seen as {{lang|it|papabile}} is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.)
* [[Mariano Rampolla]], [[Pope Leo XIII|Leo XIII]]'s [[Cardinal Secretary of State]], was headed for victory in the [[1903 conclave]], only to be vetoed by [[Jan Puzyna de Kosielsko]], [[Archbishop of Kraków]], on behalf of Austro-Hungarian Emperor [[Franz Joseph I of Austria|Franz Joseph I]]. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Sarto was elected and became [[Pope Pius X|Pius X]]. One of Pius X's first acts was to abolish the rights of Catholic monarchs to veto.{{efn|Papal historian Valérie Pirie disagreed with the conclusion that Rampolla would have won but for the veto of the Austro-Hungarian Emperor. Pirie claims that Rampolla would never have prevailed in the conclave and all that the veto accomplished was to make him appear a sympathetic figure as a victim of Austrian hostility.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 13"/>}}
* [[Rafael Merry del Val]] was a widely considered candidate in the [[1914 conclave|1914]] and [[1922 conclave|1922]] conclaves, which eventually elected [[Pope Benedict XV|Benedict XV]] and [[Pope Pius XI|Pius XI]] respectively, although he never garnered enough votes to be in serious contention.<ref name="Weigel" /><ref name="Kertzer" />
* [[Giuseppe Siri]] was widely expected to be elected pope in the [[1958 conclave|1958]] and [[1963 conclave|1963]] conclaves, and continued to be a prime contender in both 1978 conclaves. On the first of these occasions, [[Pope John XXIII|Angelo Roncalli]], an unexpected choice, was elected and became Pope John XXIII.<ref name=Princes>{{cite magazine|url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,895979-3,00.html|title=The Princes of the Church|magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]|date=30 March 1962|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081021100617/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,895979-3,00.html|archive-date=2008-10-21}}</ref><ref name="NCR">{{cite news|last1=Allen|first1=John L. Jr.|title=How a pope is elected|url=http://www.nationalcatholicreporter.org/update/conclave/how_to.htm|access-date=23 April 2017|work=[[National Catholic Reporter]]|date=2005}}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine|url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946069-2,00.html|title=How Pope John Paul I Won|magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]|date=11 September 1978|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080417054536/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946069-2,00.html|archive-date=2008-04-17}}</ref><ref name=Foreign>{{cite magazine|url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,912229-2,00.html|title=A 'Foreign' Pope|magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]|date=30 October 1978|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070930071939/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,912229-2,00.html|archive-date=2007-09-30}}</ref> An [[Giuseppe Siri conspiracy theory|unsubstantiated conspiracy theory]] popular among [[Sedevacantism|sedevacantists]] claims that he was actually elected during the former conclave.
* [[Giovanni Benelli]], [[Archbishop of Florence]] and the leading liberal candidate, was widely expected to be elected pope in both the [[August 1978 conclave|August]] and [[October 1978 conclave|October 1978]] conclaves; in fact, he was defeated in both (albeit narrowly, the second time). In August, a candidate few saw as {{lang|it|papabile}}, Albino Luciani, was elected, becoming [[Pope John Paul I|John Paul I]] – with the support of Benelli himself. In October, another such candidate, Karol Wojtyła, was elected as John Paul II.<ref>{{cite magazine | magazine=Time | url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,916332-2,00.html | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080605062839/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,916332-2,00.html | url-status=dead | archive-date=5 June 2008 | title=In Rome, a Week off Suspense | date=28 August 1978}}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine | magazine=Time | url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,912133-5,00.html | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070930214130/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,912133-5,00.html | url-status=dead | archive-date=30 September 2007 | title=A Swift, Stunning Choice | date=4 September 1978}}</ref> 
* [[Sergio Pignedoli]], a towering figure in the church, was Paul VI's closest confidant and widely expected to succeed him. Following the death of Paul VI in 1978, Pignedoli was featured in numerous publications around the world, including on the covers of [[Time (magazine)|Time]] and [[Newsweek]], as a leading contender to be elected pope. In the [[August 1978 conclave]], Pignedoli, the progressive candidate, received nearly half of the votes of the cardinal electors. His main opponent was the conservative cardinal [[Giuseppe Siri]] of Genova; however, since both were unable to obtain a majority, a compromise candidate emerged, and Albino Luciani was elected as Pope John Paul I. Thirty three days later, following the sudden death of John Paul I, a second [[October 1978 conclave|conclave convened in October 1978]]. Pignedoli was again the leading contender for the papacy, but ultimately Karol Wojtyła was elected as Pope John Paul II.<ref>Time Magazine. [https://web.archive.org/web/20100914173820/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924272,00.html Recent Events] 30 June 1980</ref>
* [[Carlo Maria Martini]], [[Archbishop of Milan]] from 1980 to 2002 and a Jesuit biblical exegete, was considered to be the most likely successor to John Paul II for much of the 1980s and 1990s but was already suffering from [[Parkinson's disease]] by the time the [[2005 conclave]] was convened.<ref>{{cite news|last=Wakin|first=Daniel J.|title=Cardinals Gather Today in Secret to Elect the Next Pope|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/international/worldspecial2/18conclave.html|access-date=5 September 2012|newspaper=The New York Times|date=18 April 2005}}</ref><ref>Catholic News Service. [http://webarchive.loc.gov/all/20050928201437/http://www.catholicnews.com/data/stories/cns/0505401.htm Article based on diary says German cardinal became pope with 84 votes] 23 September 2005</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Martini: Benedict XVI's resignation and the 2005 Conclave|url=http://www.lastampa.it/2015/07/18/vaticaninsider/eng/the-vatican/martini-benedict-xvis-resignation-and-the-conclave-FU9OIx1TdP9hKUnxUvC1PN/pagina.html|access-date=15 August 2017|work=Vatican Insider|date=18 July 2015}}</ref>
* [[Francis Arinze]], Prefect of the [[Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments]] and one of John Paul II's principal advisors, was speculated by some media reports as a highly favoured successor to John Paul II but did not garner enough votes in the 2005 conclave.<ref name="Donadio">{{cite news |last1=Donadio |first1=Rachel |last2=Povoledo |first2=Elisabetta |title=Pope Resigns with Church at Crossroads |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/world/europe/with-popes-resignation-focus-shifts-to-a-successor.html?ref=todayspaper&gwh=DFA34D8E491A91B1FE3CF6D98D0C4497 |work=[[New York Times]] |pages=A1–A11 |date=12 February 2013 |access-date=12 February 2013 |archive-date=14 September 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170914081738/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/world/europe/with-popes-resignation-focus-shifts-to-a-successor.html?ref=todayspaper&gwh=DFA34D8E491A91B1FE3CF6D98D0C4497 |url-status=live }}</ref>
* [[Angelo Scola]], Archbishop of Milan, was considered such a front-runner in the [[2013 conclave]] that the [[Episcopal Conference of Italy]] had already pre-drafted a press release concerning his election. However, his ties to a corruption probe caused his perception by the fellow cardinals to decline drastically.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Condon |first=Ed |title=The short and the long of conclave timing |url=https://www.pillarcatholic.com/p/the-short-and-the-long-of-conclave |access-date=2025-04-30 |website=[[The Pillar]] |language=en}}</ref>
* [[Pietro Parolin]], Francis's [[Cardinal Secretary of State]], was often considered a moderate option and viable successor, but did not garner enough votes in the [[2025 conclave]] to become pope.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=TDT |date=2025-05-06 |title=16 papabile: Who could be the next Pope? |url=https://tribune.net.ph/2025/05/05/16-papabile-who-could-be-the-next-pope |access-date=2025-05-08 |website=Daily Tribune |language=en}}</ref>
* [[Luis Antonio Tagle]], [[Archbishop of Manila]] from 2011 to 2020, dubbed the "Asian Francis" and seen as the representative of the Catholic Church's progressive wing, was speculated in media reports to be a most likely successor to Francis. However, he failed to garner enough votes to become pope in the 2025 conclave. He was also a ''papabile'' in the 2013 papal conclave that elected Francis.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite web |date=2013-03-12 |title=Meet the Papabili: A Handy Guide to the Popefuls of Conclave 2013 |url=https://www.tiffany-parks.com/blog/2013/03/11/meet-the-papabili-a-handy-guide-to-the-popefuls-of-conclave-2013 |access-date=2025-05-08 |website=Tiffany Parks |language=en-US}}</ref>

==Non-{{lang|it|papabili}} elected pope==
[[File:Cappella Sistina - 2005.jpg|thumb|right|The [[1492 papal conclave|1492 conclave]] was the first to be held in the [[Sistine Chapel]], the site of all conclaves since 1878]]
* [[Pope Pius VII|Barnaba Chiaramonti]] (elected as '''Pius VII''' in [[1799–1800 conclave|1800]]) was not considered {{lang|it|papabile}} but emerged as an alternative candidate following months of deadlock. Chiaramonti was well-regarded among many of the cardinals, but tried to dissuade them from electing him since he was content with being a bishop. Cardinal [[Jean-Sifrein Maury]] first proposed Chiaramonti as a compromise candidate to break the stalemate.<ref>{{cite web|date=29 September 2015|author=John Paul Adams|title=Sede Vacante 1799–1800|access-date=31 January 2019|url=http://www.csun.edu/~hcfll004/SV1800.html|archive-date=21 February 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140221142203/http://www.csun.edu/~hcfll004/SV1800.html|url-status=live}}</ref>
* [[Pope Leo XII|Annibale della Genga]] (elected as '''Leo XII''' in [[1823 conclave|1823]]) was not considered {{lang|it|papabile}} due to his physical infirmities and the cardinal himself at the conclave tried to discourage the other electors from voting for him. However, he was elected because the conclave received information about secret societies who were perceived to have grown in strength during the {{lang|la|[[sede vacante]]}} period, and some cardinals wanted a quick conclusion to the conclave; his physical condition made some cardinals think that his pontificate would not last long.<ref name="Pirie - Leo 12"/>
* [[Pope Gregory XVI|Bartolomeo Cappellari]]'s (elected as '''Gregory XVI''' in [[1830–1831 conclave|1831]]) election was unexpected and had been influenced by the fact that the most {{lang|it|papabile}} candidate, [[Giacomo Giustiniani]], had been vetoed, therefore resulting in a deadlock.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-gregory-xvi.htm|publisher=Pickle Publishing|title=Gregory XVI (Cappellari)|date=2005|access-date=31 January 2019|archive-date=31 January 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190131040233/http://www.pickle-publishing.com/papers/triple-crown-gregory-xvi.htm|url-status=live}}</ref>
* [[Pope Pius X|Giuseppe Sarto]] (elected as '''Pius X''' in [[1903 conclave|1903]]) emerged as an alternative candidate after the veto of Mariano Rampolla.
* [[Pope Pius XI|Achille Ratti]] (elected as '''Pius XI''' in [[1922 conclave|1922]]) was elected as a compromise candidate between the conservative faction headed by [[Rafael Merry del Val]] and the moderate faction headed by [[Pietro Gasparri]]. Gasparri also threw his support behind Ratti and urged his supporters to vote for Ratti.<ref name="Kertzer">{{Cite book|last=Kertzer|first=David I.|author-link=David Kertzer|title=The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe|year=2014|publisher=Oxford University Press|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Xc3QAgAAQBAJ|isbn=9780198716167|access-date=7 September 2017|archive-date=12 January 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230112150430/https://books.google.com/books?id=Xc3QAgAAQBAJ|url-status=live}}</ref>
* [[Pope John XXIII|Angelo Roncalli]] (elected as '''John XXIII''' in [[1958 conclave|1958]]). Some commentators like William Doino dispute the contention that Roncalli was a non-{{lang|it|papabile}} and argue that "[b]y the time of Pius XII's death, in 1958, Cardinal Roncalli 'contrary to the idea he came out of nowhere to become pope' was actually one of those favored to be elected. He was well-known, well-liked, and trusted."<ref name=FirstThings>{{cite journal|journal=First Things|url=http://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2012/07/pope-john-xxiii-conserver-of-tradition|title=Pope John XXIII: Conserver of Tradition|last=Doino|first=William Jr.|date=2 July 2012|access-date=28 April 2014|archive-date=28 April 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140428003418/http://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2012/07/pope-john-xxiii-conserver-of-tradition|url-status=live}}</ref>
* [[Pope John Paul I|Albino Luciani]] (elected as '''John Paul I''' in [[August 1978 conclave|1978]]). Although Luciani was not considered {{lang|it|papabile}}, one of the {{lang|it|papabile}} cardinals, [[Giovanni Benelli]], used his influence to persuade the others to elect Luciani at the conclave.<ref>Time Magazine. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080605062839/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,916332-2,00.html In Rome, a Week off Suspense] 28 August 1978</ref><ref>Time Magazine. [https://web.archive.org/web/20070930214130/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,912133-5,00.html A Swift, Stunning Choice] 4 September 1978</ref>
* [[Pope John Paul II|Karol Wojtyła]] (elected as '''John Paul II''' in [[October 1978 conclave|1978]]) was elected as a compromise candidate due to the failure of the leading {{lang|it|papabili}} [[Giuseppe Siri]] and [[Giovanni Benelli]] to obtain the requisite majority and the only other viable Italian compromise candidate [[Giovanni Colombo]] announced to the cardinal-electors at the conclave that he would decline the papacy if elected.<ref>{{cite book |title=Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church |author=Thomas Reese, S.J. |publisher=Harvard University Press |year=1998 |isbn=978-0-674-93261-6 |pages=91 & 99}}</ref> Prior to Wojtyła, no non-Italian had been elected Pope since the 1522 conclave that chose the Dutch [[Pope Adrian VI]].

==See also==
* [[Conclave capitulation]]
* [[Elective monarchy]]
* [[Holy See]]
* [[Index of Vatican City-related articles]]
* [[List of papal elections]]
* [[Papal appointment]]
* [[Papal primacy]]
* [[Papal conclave]]
** [[2025 papal conclave]]
** [[2013 papal conclave]]
** [[2005 papal conclave]]
* [[Papal coronation]]

==Notes==
{{Notelist}}

== References ==

{{Reflist}}

== Bibliography ==

=== News articles ===

{{refbegin}}
* {{cite news |last=Lawler |first=Phil |date=11 December 2019 |title=Who is most likely to succeed Pope Francis? |url=https://www.catholicculture.org/commentary/who-is-most-likely-to-succeed-pope-francis/ |work=[[Catholic Culture]] |access-date=8 December 2020 |archive-date=3 January 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210103185306/https://www.catholicculture.org/commentary/who-is-most-likely-to-succeed-pope-francis/ |url-status=live }}
* {{cite news |last=Magister |first=Sandro |date=11 December 2019 |title=Conclave Rehearsals. The Next Pope Will Take His Name From Sant'Egidio |url=http://magister.blogautore.espresso.repubblica.it/2019/12/11/conclave-rehearsals-the-next-pope-will-take-his-name-from-sant%E2%80%99egidio/ |access-date=29 July 2021 |archive-date=29 July 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210729191716/http://magister.blogautore.espresso.repubblica.it/2019/12/11/conclave-rehearsals-the-next-pope-will-take-his-name-from-sant%E2%80%99egidio/ |url-status=live }}
{{refend}}

==External links==
{{Wiktionary|papabile|papabili}}
{{Commons category|Papal coronation}}
* {{usurped|1=[https://web.archive.org/web/20130317013045/http://popes-and-papacy.com/papabili.htm Papabili list for 2009 at "Popes-and-Papacy"]}}
* [http://www.jigsawlounge.co.uk/film/content/view/130/1/ Site ranking potential papabili]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4465591.stm  BBC News: Bets open on Benedict's successor]
* {{cite web|url=https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2025/04/23/news/conclave_papabili_donne_chiesa_coppie_gay-15114814/|title=Il successore di Francesco? I papabili e le loro posizioni su donne nella Chiesa e coppie gay|trans-title=Who will succeed Francis? The candidates and their positions on women in the Church and gay couples|language=it|website=[[La Stampa]]|date=April 23, 2025|access-date=April 23, 2025|archive-url=https://archive.today/20250423103415/https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2025/04/23/news/conclave_papabili_donne_chiesa_coppie_gay-15114814/|archive-date=April 23, 2025|url-status=live}}

{{Coronation}}
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{{Papal symbols and rituals}}
{{History of the Catholic Church}}
{{Catholicism}}

[[Category:Election of the pope]]
[[Category:Italian words and phrases]]