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{{About|path dependence in economics and social sciences|a similar topic in physics|Path dependence (physics)}}
'''Path dependence''' is a concept in the [[social science]]s, referring to processes where past events or decisions constrain later events or decisions.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book |last1=Mahoney |first1=James |url=http://oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270439.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199270439-e-024 |title=Historical Context and Path Dependence |last2=Schensul |first2=Daniel |date=2006-03-16 |pages=454–471 |publisher=Oxford University Press |doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270439.003.0024|isbn=0199270430 }}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite web |last=Puffert |first=Douglas |title=Path Dependence |url=https://eh.net/encyclopedia/path-dependence/ |access-date=2022-03-10 |website=E-H.net |publisher=[[Economic History Association]]}}</ref> It can be used to refer to outcomes at a single point in time or to long-run equilibria of a process.<ref name=":2">{{cite journal |last1=Zhu |first1=Kevin |last2=Kraemer |first2=Kenneth L. |last3=Gurbaxani |first3=Vijay |last4=Xu |first4=Sean Xin |date=2006 |title=Migration to Open-Standard Interorganizational Systems: Network Effects, Switching Costs, and Path Dependency |url=https://doi.org/10.2307/25148771 |journal=MIS Quarterly |volume=30 |pages=515–539 |doi=10.2307/25148771 |issn=0276-7783 |jstor=25148771|s2cid=2182978 }}</ref> Path dependence has been used to describe institutions, [[technical standard]]s, patterns of [[Economic development|economic]] or social development, [[organizational behavior]], and more.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Baláž |first1=Vladimir |last2=Williams |first2=Allan M. |title=Path-dependency and Path-creation Perspectives on Migration Trajectories: The Economic Experiences of Vietnamese Migrants in Slovakia1 |journal=International Migration |date=2007 |volume=45 |issue=2 |pages=37–67 |doi=10.1111/j.1468-2435.2007.00403.x |language=en |issn=1468-2435|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name=":0" />

In common usage, the phrase can imply two types of claims. The first is the broad concept that "history matters", often articulated to challenge explanations that pay insufficient attention to historical factors.<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":3">{{Cite journal |last=Pierson |first=Paul |date=2000 |title=Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/2586011 |journal=The American Political Science Review |volume=94 |issue=2 |pages=251–267 |doi=10.2307/2586011 |jstor=2586011 |hdl=1814/23648 |s2cid=154860619 |issn=0003-0554|hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last1=Liebowitz |first1=S. |title=Encyclopedia of Law and Economics |last2=Margolis |first2=Stephen |year=2000 |isbn=978-1-85898-984-6 |page=981 |publisher=E. Elgar |quote=Most generally, path dependence means that where we go next depends not only on where we are now, but also upon where we have been.}}</ref> This claim can be formulated simply as "the future development of an economic system is affected by the path it has traced out in the past"<ref>{{cite book |last1=Hodgson |first1=Geoffrey Martin |title=Economics and evolution : bringing life back into economics |date=1993 |publisher=University of Michigan Press |isbn=0472105221 |location=Ann Arbor}}</ref> or "particular events in the past can have crucial effects in the future."<ref name=":0" /> The second is a more specific claim about how past events or decisions affect future events or decisions in significant or disproportionate ways, through mechanisms such as [[increasing returns]], [[positive feedback]] effects, or other mechanisms.<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":1" /><ref name=":2" /><ref name=":3" />

==Commercial examples==

===Videocassette recording systems===

The [[videotape format war]] is a key example of path dependence. Three mechanisms ''independent of product quality'' could explain how [[VHS]] [[format war#1970s|achieved dominance]] over [[Betamax]] from a negligible [[early adoption]] lead:
# A [[network effect]]: [[videocassette]] [[video rental shop|rental stores]] observed more VHS rentals and stocked up on VHS tapes, leading [[Renting#Rental agreements|renters]] to buy VHS players and rent more VHS tapes, until there was complete [[vendor lock-in]].
# A VCR manufacturer [[bandwagon effect]] of switching to VHS-production because they expected it to win the ''standards battle''.
# Sony, the original developer of Betamax, did not let [[pornography]] companies license their technology for mass production, which meant that nearly all pornographic motion pictures released on video used VHS format.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/03/05/betamax-didnt-lose-to-vhs-because-of-adult-films/|title=Betamax Didn't Lose To VHS Because Of Adult Films|last=M.Admin|date=2014-03-05|website=KnowledgeNuts|language=en-US|access-date=2019-08-06}}</ref>

An alternative analysis is that VHS was [[Videotape format war#Market share|better-adapted to market demands]] (e.g. having a longer recording time). In this interpretation, path dependence had little to do with VHS's success, which would have occurred even if Betamax had established an early lead.<ref>{{cite book |last=Liebowitz |first=Stan |title=Re-thinking the Network Economy |year=2002 |page=[https://archive.org/details/rethinkingnetwor00lieb/page/41 41] |publisher=New York |url=https://archive.org/details/rethinkingnetwor00lieb/page/41 |isbn=978-0-8144-0649-6 |quote=It was the inferior playing time that led to the demise of the Betamax, not the fact that it was first or second or third. |url-access=registration }}</ref>
{{multiple image 
 | align         = right
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 | image1        = KB USA-standard.svg
 | caption1      = QWERTY keyboard
 | image2        = KB USA Dvorak text.svg
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===QWERTY keyboard===

The QWERTY keyboard is a prominent example of path dependence due to the widespread emergence and persistence of the QWERTY keyboard. QWERTY has persisted over time despite potentially more efficient keyboard arrangements being developed – [[Dvorak Simplified Keyboard#Comparison of the QWERTY and Dvorak layouts|QWERTY vs. Dvorak]] is an example of this.<ref name=":4" /> However, as it is not clear whether other keyboard layouts really are better, there is still debate if this is a good example of path dependence.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Liebowitz |first1=S. J. |last2=Margolis |first2=Stephen E. |title=The Fable of the Keys |journal=The Journal of Law and Economics |date=April 1990 |volume=33 |issue=1 |pages=1–25 |doi=10.1086/467198|s2cid=14262869 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1999/04/01/the-qwerty-myth|title = The QWERTY myth|newspaper = The Economist|date = April 1999}}</ref>

===Railway track gauges===

The standard [[Track gauge|gauge]] of railway tracks is another example of path dependence which explains how a seemingly insignificant event or circumstance can change the choice of technology over the long run despite contemporary know-how showing such a choice to be inefficient.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Puffert |first1=Douglas J. |title=Path Dependence in Spatial Networks: The Standardization of Railway Track Gauge |journal=Explorations in Economic History |date=1 July 2002 |volume=39 |issue=3 |pages=282–314 |doi=10.1006/exeh.2002.0786 |url=https://doi.org/10.1006/exeh.2002.0786 |language=en |issn=0014-4983}}</ref>

More than half the world's railway gauges are {{convert|4|ft|8+1/2|in|cm}}, known as [[standard gauge]], despite the consensus among engineers being that wider gauges have increased performance{{clarify|date=November 2020}} and speed. The path to the adoption of the standard gauge began in the late 1820s when George Stephenson, a British engineer, began work on the [[Liverpool and Manchester Railway]]. His experience with primitive coal tramways resulted in this gauge width being copied by the Liverpool and Manchester Railway, then the rest of Great Britain, and finally by railroads in Europe and North America.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Puffert |first1=Douglas J. |title=The Standardization of Track Gauge on North American Railways, 1830–1890 |journal=The Journal of Economic History |date=December 2000 |volume=60 |issue=4 |pages=933–960 |doi=10.1017/S0022050700026322 |s2cid=13721300 |url=(4), 933–960. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700026322 |language=en |issn=0022-0507}}</ref>

There are tradeoffs involved in the choice of rail gauge between the cost of constructing a line (which rises with wider gauges) and various performance metrics, including maximum speed, low [[center of gravity]] (desirable, especially in [[double-stack rail transport]]). While the attempts with [[Brunel gauge]], a significantly broader gauge failed, the widespread use of [[Iberian gauge]], [[Russian gauge]] and [[Indian gauge]], all of which are broader than Stephenson's choice, show that there is nothing inherent to the 1435&nbsp;mm gauge that led to its global success.

==Economics==
Path dependence theory was originally developed by economists to explain technology adoption processes and industry evolution. The theoretical ideas have had a strong influence on [[evolutionary economics]].<ref>{{cite book|title=An evolutionary theory of economic change|last1=Nelson|first1=R|last2=Winter|first2=S|date=1982|publisher=Harvard University Press}}</ref> A common expression of the concept is the claim that predictable amplifications of small differences are a disproportionate [[Ultimate cause|cause]] of later circumstances, and, in the "strong" form, that this historical hang-over is [[inefficient]].<ref name="LMTypes2">{{cite book |last1=Liebowitz |first1=S. |url=http://encyclo.findlaw.com/0770book.pdf |title=Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, Volume I. The History and Methodology of Law and Economics |last2=Margolis |first2=S. |date=September 2000 |publisher=Edward Elgar |isbn=978-1-85898-984-6 |editor1-last=Bouckaert |editor1-first=Boudewijn |location=Cheltenham |page=985 |quote=path dependence can be weak (the efficiency of the chosen path is tied with some alternatives), semi-strong, (the chosen path is not the best but not worth fixing, or strong (the chosen path is highly inefficient, but we are unable to correct it). |access-date=2010-05-20 |editor2-last=De Geest |editor2-first=Gerrit |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101206033616/http://encyclo.findlaw.com/0770book.pdf |archive-date=2010-12-06 |url-status=dead}}</ref>

There are many models and empirical cases where economic processes do not progress steadily toward some pre-determined and unique [[economic equilibrium|equilibrium]], but rather the nature of any equilibrium achieved depends partly on the process of getting there. Therefore, the outcome of a path-dependent process will often not converge towards a unique equilibrium, but will instead reach one of several equilibria (sometimes known as [[Attractor|absorbing states]]).

This dynamic vision of economic evolution is very different from the tradition of [[neo-classical economics]], which in its simplest form assumed that only a single outcome could possibly be reached, regardless of initial conditions or transitory events. With path dependence, both the starting point and 'accidental' events ([[noise (economic)|noise]]) can have significant effects on the ultimate outcome. In each of the following examples it is possible to identify some [[random]] events that disrupted the ongoing course, with irreversible consequences.

=== Economic development ===
In economic development, it is said (initially by [[Paul A. David|Paul David]] in 1985)<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Martin |last1=Stack |first2=Myles |last2=Gartland |year=2003 |title=Path Creation, Path Dependency, and Alternative Theories of the Firm |journal=Journal of Economic Issues |volume=37 |issue=2 |page=487 |quote=Paul David and Brian Arthur published several papers that are now regarded as the foundation of path dependency (David 1985; Arthur 1989, 1990).|doi=10.1080/00213624.2003.11506597 |s2cid=155562359 }}</ref> that a ''standard'' that is first-to-market can become entrenched (like the [[QWERTY]] layout in typewriters still used in computer keyboards). He called this "path dependence",<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal|last=David|first=Paul A.|date=1985|title=Clio and the Economics of QWERTY|url=https://econ.ucsb.edu/~tedb/Courses/Ec100C/DavidQwerty.pdf|journal=The American Economic Review|volume=75|issue=2|pages=332–337|issn=0002-8282|jstor=1805621}}</ref> and said that inferior standards can persist simply because of the [[Legacy system|legacy]] they have built up. That [[Dvorak Simplified Keyboard#Comparison of the QWERTY and Dvorak layouts|QWERTY vs. Dvorak]] is an example of this phenomenon, has been re-asserted,<ref>{{cite journal |last=Diamond |first=Jared |author-link=Jared Diamond | date=April 1997 |title=The Curse of QWERTY |journal=[[Discover Magazine]] |url= http://discovermagazine.com/1997/apr/thecurseofqwerty1099}}</ref> questioned,<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Liebowitz |first1=S. J. |last2=Margolis |first2=S. E. |date=April 1990 |title=The Fable of the Keys |journal=Journal of Law and Economics |volume=30 |pages=1–26 |ssrn= 1069950|quote=we conclude that QWERTY is about as good a design as any alternative |doi=10.1086/467198|s2cid=14262869 }}</ref> and continues to be argued.<ref>{{cite conference |last=David |first=Paul A. |url=http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpeh:0502004 |title=At Last, a Remedy for Chronic QWERTY-skepticism! |conference=European Summer School in Industrial Dynamics (ESSID) |location=l'Institute d'Etudes Scientifique de Cargèse (Corse), France |date=5–12 September 1999}}</ref> Economic debate continues on the significance of path dependence in determining how standards form.<ref>{{cite web |url= http://eh.net/encyclopedia/path-dependence/ |title=Path Dependence |last=Puffert |first=Douglas |date=2008-02-10 |access-date=20 May 2010}}</ref>

Economists from [[Alfred Marshall]] to [[Regional science#New economic geography|Paul Krugman]] have noted that similar businesses tend to congregate geographically ([[Economies of agglomeration|"agglomerate"]]); opening near similar companies [[labor mobility|attracts workers]] with skills in that business, which draws in more businesses seeking experienced employees. There may have been no reason to prefer one place to another before the industry developed, but as it concentrates geographically, participants elsewhere are at a disadvantage, and will tend to move into the hub, further [[Knowledge spillover|increasing its relative efficiency]]. This [[network effect]] follows a statistical [[power law]] in the idealized case,<ref>{{cite journal |last=D'Souza |first=Raissa M. |year=2007 |title=Emergence of Tempered Preferential Attachment from Optimization |journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA]] |volume=104 |issue=15 |pages=6112–6117 |doi=10.1073/pnas.0606779104 |pmid=17395721 |display-authors=etal|pmc=1839059 |doi-access=free }}</ref> though [[negative feedback]] can occur (through rising local costs).<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Jennen |first1=M. |last2=Verwijmeren |first2=P. |year=2009 |title=Agglomeration Effects and Financial Performance |journal=Urban Studies |id=ssrn 1009226 |doi=10.1177/0042098010363495 |volume=47 |issue=12 |pages=2683–2703|s2cid=154044026 |url=https://zenodo.org/record/895942 }}</ref>
Buyers often [[cluster effect|cluster]] around sellers, and related businesses frequently form [[business cluster]]s, so a concentration of producers (initially formed by accident and agglomeration) can trigger the emergence of many dependent businesses in the same region.<ref>{{cite book |title= Global Networks and Local Linkages: The Paradox of Cluster Development in an Open Economy |author= Jen Nelles, Allison Bramwell and David Wolfe |year= 2005 |publisher= Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queens University Press for Queen's School of Policy Studies |isbn= 978-1-55339-047-3 |page= 230 |url= http://www.druid.dk/uploads/tx_picturedb/dw2005-1650.pdf |access-date= 2010-05-20 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20160604045844/http://www.druid.dk/uploads/tx_picturedb/dw2005-1650.pdf |archive-date= 2016-06-04 |url-status= dead }}</ref>

In the 1980s, the US dollar [[exchange rate]] appreciated, lowering the world price of [[tradable goods]] below the cost of production in many (previously successful) [[United States|U.S.]] manufacturers. Some of the factories that closed as a result, could later have been operated at a (cash-flow) profit after dollar depreciation, but reopening would have been too expensive. This is an example of [[hysteresis]], [[switching barriers]], and irreversibility.

If the economy follows [[adaptive expectations]], future [[inflation]] is partly determined by past experience with inflation, since experience determines expected inflation and this is a major determinant of realized inflation.

A transitory high rate of [[unemployment]] during a [[recession]] can lead to a permanently higher unemployment rate because of the skills loss (or skill obsolescence) by the unemployed, along with a deterioration of work attitudes. In other words, cyclical unemployment may generate [[structural unemployment]]. This structural hysteresis model of the [[labour market]] differs from the prediction of a "natural" unemployment rate or [[NAIRU]], around which 'cyclical' unemployment is said to move without influencing the "natural" rate itself.

=== Types of path dependence ===
Liebowitz and Margolis distinguish ''types'' of path dependence;<ref name="LMTypes">{{cite book |last1= Liebowitz |first1= S. |last2= Margolis |first2= S. |editor1-first= Boudewijn |editor1-last= Bouckaert |editor2-first= Gerrit |editor2-last= De Geest |title= Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, Volume I. The History and Methodology of Law and Economics |url= http://encyclo.findlaw.com/0770book.pdf |access-date= 2010-05-20 |date= September 2000 |publisher= Edward Elgar |location= Cheltenham |isbn= 978-1-85898-984-6 |page= 985 |quote= path dependence can be weak (the efficiency of the chosen path is tied with some alternatives), semi-strong, (the chosen path is not the best but not worth fixing, or strong (the chosen path is highly inefficient, but we are unable to correct it). |archive-date= 2010-12-06 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20101206033616/http://encyclo.findlaw.com/0770book.pdf |url-status= dead }}</ref> some do not imply inefficiencies and do not challenge the [[Normative economics|policy implications]] of neoclassical economics. Only "third-degree" path dependence—where switching gains are high, but transition is impractical—involves such a challenge. They argue that such situations should be rare for theoretical reasons, and that no real-world cases of [[Free market|private]] locked-in inefficiencies exist.<ref>{{cite web |url= http://www.utdallas.edu/~liebowit/palgrave/palpd.html |title=Path Dependence '''4. Evidence for Third-Degree Path Dependence''' |author=Stephen E. Margolis |author2=S. J. Liebowitz |access-date=20 May 2010 |quote=Our reading of the evidence is that there are as yet no proven examples of third degree path dependence in markets.}}</ref> Vergne and Durand qualify this critique by specifying the conditions under which path dependence theory can be tested empirically.<ref>{{Cite journal | last1 = Vergne | first1 = J. P. | last2 = Durand | first2 = R. | doi = 10.1111/j.1467-6486.2009.00913.x | title = The Missing Link Between the Theory and Empirics of Path Dependence: Conceptual Clarification, Testability Issue, and Methodological Implications | journal = Journal of Management Studies | volume = 47 | issue = 4 | pages = 736 | year = 2010 | s2cid = 107050516 |quote=In particular, we suggest moving away from historical case studies of supposedly path-dependent processes to focus on more controlled research designs&#91;,&#93; such as simulations, experiments, and counterfactual investigation."| doi-access = free }}</ref>

Technically, a path-dependent stochastic process has an [[asymptotic distribution]] that "evolves as a consequence (function of) the process's own history".<ref>{{cite book |title=Evolution and path dependence in economic ideas: past and present |first=Paul |last=David |year=2005 |publisher=Edward Elgar |isbn=978-1-84064-081-6 |page=19 |quote=as generally is the case for branching processes &#91;in Path dependence, its critics and the quest for 'historical economics'&#93;}}</ref> This is also known as a [[Ergodic (adjective)|non-ergodic]] [[stochastic process]].

In ''The Theory of the Growth of the Firm'' (1959), [[Edith Penrose]] analyzed how the growth of a firm both organically and through acquisition is strongly influenced by the experience of its managers and the history of the firm's development.

=== Conditions which give rise to path dependence ===
Path dependence may arise or be hindered by a number of important factors, these may include

* Durability of capital equipment
* Technical interrelatedness
* Increasing returns
* Dynamic increasing returns to adoption<ref>{{cite web |last1=Puffert |first1=Douglas |title=Path Dependence |url=http://eh.net/encyclopedia/path-dependence/ |website=eh.net Encyclopedia}}</ref>

==Social sciences==

=== Institutions ===
{{see also|Historical institutionalism}}

Recent methodological work in comparative politics and sociology has adapted the concept of path dependence into analyses of political and social phenomena. Path dependence has primarily been used in [[Historical comparative research|comparative-historical]] analyses of the development and persistence of [[institutions]], whether they be social, political, or cultural. There are arguably two types of path-dependent processes:

* One is the [[critical juncture theory|critical juncture]] framework, most notably utilized by Ruth and David Collier in [[political science]]. In the critical [[wiktionary:juncture|juncture]], [[Antecedent (logic)|antecedent]] conditions allow [[Contingency (philosophy)|contingent]] choices that set a specific trajectory of [[institutional]] development and consolidation that is difficult to reverse. As in economics, the generic drivers are: lock-in, [[positive feedback]], [[increasing returns]] (the more a choice is made, the bigger its benefits), and [[self-reinforcement]] (which creates forces sustaining the decision).<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Page|first=Scott E.|date=2006-01-26|title=Path Dependence|url=http://dev.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/Page2006.pdf|journal=Quarterly Journal of Political Science|volume=1|issue=1|pages=87–115|doi=10.1561/100.00000006|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160629130434/http://dev.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/Page2006.pdf|archive-date=2016-06-29}}</ref>
* The other path-dependent process deals with reactive sequences where a primary event sets off a temporally-linked and causally-tight [[deterministic]] chain of events that is nearly uninterruptible. These reactive sequences have been used to link such things as the [[assassination of Martin Luther King Jr.]] with welfare expansion, or the [[Industrial Revolution]] in [[England]] with the development of the [[steam engine]].

The critical juncture framework has been used to explain the development and persistence of [[welfare states]], labor incorporation in [[Latin America]], and the variations in [[economic development]] between countries, among other things.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hogan |first1=John |title=The Critical Juncture Concept's Evolving Capacity to Explain Policy Change |journal=European Policy Analysis |date=2019 |volume=5 |issue=2 |pages=170–189 |doi=10.1002/epa2.1057 |s2cid=159425364 |url=https://doi.org/10.1002/epa2.1057 |language=en |issn=2380-6567}}</ref> Scholars such as Kathleen Thelen caution that the [[historical determinism]] in path-dependent frameworks is subject to constant disruption from [[Institutional economics|institutional evolution]].

Kathleen Thelen has criticized the application of QWERTY keyboard-style mechanisms to politics. She argues that such applications to politics are both too contingent and too deterministic. Too contingent in the sense that the initial choice is open and flukey, and too deterministic in the sense that once the initial choice is made, an unavoidable path inevitably forms from which there is no return.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Thelen|first=Kathleen|date=1999|title=Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics|journal=Annual Review of Political Science|volume=2|issue=1|pages=369–404|doi=10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.369|issn=1094-2939|doi-access=free}}</ref>

Based on the theory of path dependence, Monika Stachowiak-Kudła and Janusz Kudła show that legal tradition affects the administrative court's rulings in Poland. It also complements the two other reasons for diversified verdicts: the experience of the judges and courts (specialization) and preference (bias) for one of the parties. This effect is persistent even if the verdicts are controversial and result in serious consequences for a party and when the penalty paid by the complainant is perceived as excessive but fulfilling the strict rules of law. The German tradition of law favours legal certainty, while the courts from the former Russian and Austrian partitions are more likely to refer to the principle of justice. Interestingly, the institutional factors can be identified almost one hundred years after the end of the partition period and the unification of formal and material law, corroborating the existence of path dependence.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Stachowiak-Kudła |first=Monika |last2=Kudła |first2=Janusz |date=2022-09-01 |title=Path dependence in administrative adjudication: the role played by legal tradition |url=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10602-021-09352-8 |journal=Constitutional Political Economy |language=en |volume=33 |issue=3 |pages=301–325 |doi=10.1007/s10602-021-09352-8 |issn=1572-9966}}</ref>{{Relevance inline|date=May 2025|reason=This does not seem relevant to the article. Path dependence is a special case of contingency. It is not reducible to "something in the past affects something in the future." For this to corroborate path dependence, it would have to demonstrate that there is compelling reason for Polish courts to change, but they are "locked in" by tradition. For all we know, they would adopt German principles, if German principles were objectively better.

So this is empirical evidence for historical contingency, not for path dependence. Cases of path dependence involve some purported inefficiency, like Dvorak supposedly being better than QWERTY but being unable to achieve widespread adoption due to network effects favoring QWERTY. In other words, one product is better than the other, but history constrains its adoption. Is German law objectively better than Austrian law? If not, we can't say history is constraining its adoption. It could just be that both traditions are serviceable, so there's no reason to adopt some other community's tradition.

Each community has its own traditions, but that doesn't mean all its traditions are "locked in." Communities change traditions all the time. Entire languages disappear. What language you speak is contingent on history, but that doesn't mean you can't learn a new language if there's good enough reason to.

This is why path dependence is so hard to empirically test. How do you know history is preventing some change from being made? You'd have to know that that change would be made, but for historical factors. So it's not merely that the current state of affairs is the result of past states of affairs (a trivial statement), it's that the current state of affairs is "locked in" by past states of affairs. Something should change, but it can't change, due to historical happenstance.}}

=== Organizations ===
[[Paul Pierson]]'s influential attempt{{specify|date=March 2017}} to [[Validity (logic)|rigorously formalize]] path dependence within political science, draws partly on ideas from economics. Herman Schwartz has questioned those efforts, arguing that forces analogous to those identified in the economic literature are not pervasive in the political realm, where the strategic exercise of power gives rise to, and transforms, institutions.

Especially [[sociology]] and [[organizational theory]], a distinct yet closely related concept to path dependence is the concept of [[Imprinting (organizational theory)|imprinting]] which captures how initial environmental conditions leave a persistent mark (or imprint) on organizations and organizational collectives (such as industries and communities), thus continuing to shape organizational behaviours and outcomes in the long run, even as external environmental conditions change.<ref name="Marquis">
{{cite journal |last1=Marquis |first1=Christopher |last2=Tilcsik |first2=András |title=Imprinting: Toward A Multilevel Theory |pages=193–243 |journal=[[Academy of Management Annals]] |year=2013 |ssrn=2198954}}</ref>

=== Individuals and groups ===
The path dependence of [[Strategy dynamics#The Dynamic Model of the Strategy Process|emergent strategy]] has been observed in behavioral [[experimental economics|experiments]] with individuals and [[Institutional memory|groups]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Egidi |first1=Massimo |last2=Narduzzo |first2=Alessandro |date=October 1997 |title=The emergence of path-dependent behaviors in cooperative contexts |journal=International Journal of Industrial Organization |volume=15 |issue=6 |pages=677–709 |url= http://www-ceel.economia.unitn.it/papers/lyon.html |doi=10.1016/S0167-7187(97)00007-6 |quote=&#91;Some test subjects&#93; adopted a strategy once and for all&#91;,&#93; and insisted on using it&#91;,&#93; even when the configurations could not be efficiently played with the strategy adopted.}}</ref>

==Other examples==
*A general type of path dependence is a typological [[Vestigiality|vestige]].
**In [[typography]], for example, some customs persist, although the reason for their existence no longer applies; for example, the placement of the period inside a [[Quotation mark|quotation]] in U.S. spelling. In [[movable type|metal type]], pieces of terminal punctuation, such as the comma and period, are comparatively small and delicate (as they must be [[x-height]] for proper [[kerning]].) Placing the full-height quotation mark on the outside protected the smaller [[sort (typesetting)|cast metal sort]] from damage if the word needed to be moved around within or between lines. This would be done even if the period did not belong to the text being quoted.
*[[Evolution]] is considered by some to be path-dependent and historically [[contingency (evolutionary biology)|contingent]]: mutations occurring in the past have had long-term effects on current life forms, some of which may no longer be adaptive to current conditions. For instance, there is a controversy about whether the [[Sesamoid bone#In other animals|panda's thumb]] is a leftover trait or not.
*In the [[computer]] and [[software]] markets, [[legacy system]]s indicate path dependence: customers' needs in the present market often include the ability to read data or run programs from past generations of products. Thus, for instance, a customer may need not merely the best available [[word processor]], but rather the best available word processor that can read [[Microsoft Word]] files. Such limitations in [[Backward compatibility|compatibility]] contribute to lock-in, and more subtly, to design compromises for independently developed products, if they attempt to be compatible. Also see [[embrace, extend and extinguish]].
*In socioeconomic systems, commercial fisheries' harvest rates and conservation consequences are found to be path dependent as predicted by the interaction between slow institutional adaptation, fast ecological dynamics, and diminishing returns.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Tekwa|first1=Edward W.|author2-link=Eli Fenichel|last2=Fenichel|first2=Eli P.|last3=Levin|first3=Simon A.|last4=Pinsky|first4=Malin L.|date=2019-01-08|title=Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=116|issue=2|pages=689–694|doi=10.1073/pnas.1806852116|issn=0027-8424|pmc=6329967|pmid=30567975|bibcode=2019PNAS..116..689T |doi-access=free}}</ref>
*In physics and mathematics, a [[non-holonomic system]] is a [[physical system]] in which the states depend on the physical paths taken.<ref name="Bryant06">{{cite conference
 | last = Bryant | first = Robert L.
 | contribution = Geometry of manifolds with special holonomy: '100 years of holonomy'
 | doi = 10.1090/conm/395/07414
 | mr = 2206889
 | pages = 29–38
 | publisher = American Mathematical Society | location = Providence, RI
 | series = Contemporary Mathematics
 | title = 150 years of mathematics at Washington University in St. Louis
 | volume = 395
 | year = 2006| doi-access = free
 | isbn = 978-0-8218-3603-3
 }}</ref>

==See also==
* [[Critical juncture theory]]
* [[Imprinting (organizational theory)]]
* [[Innovation butterfly]]
* [[Historicism]]
* [[Network effect]]
* [[Opportunity cost]]
* [[Ratchet effect]]
* [[Technological determinism]]
* [[Tyranny of small decisions]]

==Notes==
{{reflist|2}}

==References==
{{Library resources box}}

* Arrow, Kenneth J. (1963), 2nd ed. ''[[Social Choice and Individual Values]]''. Yale University Press, New Haven, pp.&nbsp;119–120 (constitutional transitivity as alternative to path dependence on the status quo).
* Arthur, W. Brian (1994), ''Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy.'' University of Michigan Press.
* {{cite journal | last1 = Boas | first1 = Taylor C | year = 2007 | title = Conceptualizing Continuity and Change: The Composite-Standard Model of Path Dependence | url = http://socs.berkeley.edu/~tboas/pathdependence.pdf | journal = Journal of Theoretical Politics | volume = 19 | issue = 1 | pages = 33–54 | doi = 10.1177/0951629807071016 | citeseerx = 10.1.1.466.8147 | s2cid = 11323786 | access-date = 2007-10-20 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080905124704/http://socs.berkeley.edu/~tboas/pathdependence.pdf | archive-date = 2008-09-05 | url-status = dead }}
* {{cite book |author1=Collier, Ruth Berins |author2=Collier, David |author2-link=David Collier (political scientist) |date=1991 |title=Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America |location=Princeton |publisher=Princeton University Press |url=https://muse.jhu.edu/book/45473 |access-date=6 July 2018|isbn=9780268077105 }}
* {{cite web |last=David |first=Paul A. |date=June 2000 |url=http://128.118.178.162/eps/eh/papers/0502/0502003.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140324111421/http://128.118.178.162/eps/eh/papers/0502/0502003.pdf |url-status=dead |archive-date=2014-03-24 |title=Path dependence, its critics and the quest for 'historical economics' }}, in P. Garrouste and S. Ioannides (eds), ''Evolution and Path Dependence in Economic Ideas: Past and Present'', Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England.
* Hargreaves Heap, Shawn (1980), "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?" ''Economic Journal'' 90(359) (Sept): 611–20 (ISSN 0013-0133)
* {{cite journal | last1 = Mahoney | first1 = James | year = 2000 | title = Path Dependence in Historical Sociology | journal = Theory and Society | volume = 29 | issue = 4| pages = 507–548 | doi = 10.1023/A:1007113830879 | s2cid = 145564738 }}
* Stephen E. Margolis and S.J. Liebowitz (2000), [http://www.utdallas.edu/~liebowit/palgrave/palpd.html "Path Dependence, Lock-In, and History"]
* Nelson, R. and S. Winter (1982), ''An evolutionary theory of economic change'', Harvard University Press.
* {{Cite journal | last = Page | first = Scott E. | author-link = Scott E. Page | title = Path dependence | journal = [[Quarterly Journal of Political Science]] | volume = 1 | issue = 1 | page = 88 | doi = 10.1561/100.00000006 | date = January 2006 }} [https://web.archive.org/web/20160629130434/http://dev.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/Page2006.pdf Pdf.]
* Penrose, E. T., (1959), ''The Theory of the Growth of the Firm'', New York: Wiley.
* Pierson, Paul (2000). "Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics". ''American Political Science Review'', June.
* _____ (2004), ''Politics in Time: Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis'', Princeton University Press.
* Puffert, Douglas J. (1999), [https://web.archive.org/web/20060113120201/http://www.eh.net/encyclopedia/article/puffert.path.dependence "Path Dependence in Economic History"] (based on the entry "Pfadabhängigkeit in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte", in the ''Handbuch zur evolutorischen Ökonomik'')
* _____ (2001), [https://web.archive.org/web/20070712162018/http://www.vwl.uni-muenchen.de/ls_komlos/spatial1.pdf "Path Dependence in Spatial Networks: The Standardization of Railway Track Gauge"]
* _____ (2009), ''Tracks across continents, paths through history: the economic dynamics of standardization in railway gauge'', University of Chicago Press.
* Schwartz, Herman. [http://www.people.virginia.edu/~hms2f/Path.pdf "Down the Wrong Path: Path Dependence, Increasing Returns, and Historical Institutionalism".], undated mimeo
* Shalizi, Cosma (2001), [http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/notebooks/qwerty.html "QWERTY, Lock-in, and Path Dependence"], unpublished website, with extensive references
* Vergne, J. P. and R. Durand (2010), [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-6486.2009.00913.x/pdf "The missing link between the theory and empirics of path dependence"], ''Journal of Management Studies'', 47(4):736–59, with extensive references
{{Decision theory}}

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