View source for Safe seat

{{Short description|Electoral district in a legislative body seen as secure for a political party or incumbent}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=February 2023}}
{{Elections}}
{{missing information|France, Germany and Italy|date=July 2024}}

A '''safe seat''' is an [[electoral district]] which is regarded as fully secure, for either a certain [[political party]], or the [[incumbent]] representative personally or a combination of both. With such seats, there is very little chance of a seat changing hands because of the political leanings of the [[constituency|electorate]] in the [[constituency]] concerned or the popularity of the incumbent member. This contrasts with a [[marginal seat]] in which a defeat for the seat holder is considered possible. In systems where candidates must first win the party's [[Partisan primary|primary election]] or [[preselection]], the phrase "'''tantamount to election'''" is often used to describe winning the dominant party's nomination for a safe seat.

==Definition==
{{unreferenced section|date=May 2022}}
There is a spectrum between safe and marginal seats. Supposedly safe seats can still change hands in a [[landslide election]], such as [[Enfield Southgate (UK Parliament constituency)|Enfield Southgate]] being lost by the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservatives]] (and then-potential future party leader [[Michael Portillo]]) to [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour]] at the [[1997 United Kingdom general election|1997 UK general election]], whilst other seats may remain marginal despite large national swings, such as [[Gedling (UK Parliament constituency)|Gedling]], which Labour narrowly won in every election for twenty years until the [[2019 United Kingdom general election|2019 general election]], despite having both major victories and defeats during this time. Gedling would still be seen as a marginal seat, even though it had been held by Labour for a long time. Safe seats are usually seats that have been held by one party for a long time, but the two concepts are not interchangeable.

In countries with parliamentary government, parties often try to ensure that their most talented or influential politicians are selected to contest these seats – in part to ensure that these politicians can stay in parliament, regardless of the specific election result, and that they can concentrate on [[minister (government)|ministerial]] roles without needing to spend too much effort on managing electorate-specific issues.

Candidate selection for a party's safe seats is usually keenly contested, although many parties restrict or forbid challenges to the nomination of sitting members. The selection process can see the incumbent party, untroubled by the need to have a representative that must appeal to a broader electorate, take the opportunity to choose a candidate from the more ideological reaches of the membership. Opposing parties will often be compelled to nominate much less well-known individuals (such as backroom workers or youth activists in the party), who will sometimes do little more than serve as [[paper candidate]]s who do little or no campaigning, or will use the contest to gain experience so that they become more likely to be selected for a more winnable seat. In some cases (especially in the United States), these seats may go uncontested by other major parties.

Safe seats can become marginal seats (and vice versa) gradually as voter allegiances shift over time. This shift can happen more rapidly for a variety of reasons. The retirement or death of a popular sitting member may make a seat more competitive, as the accrued personal vote of a long-serving parliamentarian will sometimes have resisted countervailing demographic trends. An [[Independent politician|independent]] or third-party candidate with an ideology close to that of the incumbent party may also be able to make a more credible challenge than more established parties, but these factors can combine: a retiring third-party member may turn a safe seat for that party into a marginal seat. For instance, in [[Berwick-upon-Tweed (UK Parliament constituency)|Berwick-upon-Tweed]], with the retirement of the popular incumbent [[Alan Beith]], the seat was no longer safe for the [[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Liberal Democrats]].

Traditionally safe seats can also be more vulnerable in [[by-election]]s, especially for governing parties. Safe seats may also become marginal if the sitting member is involved in scandal: in 1997, [[Tatton (UK Parliament constituency)|Tatton]] was gained from the Conservatives by an anti-sleaze independent candidate, despite the majority previously being that of a very safe seat for the Conservatives. The incumbent, [[Neil Hamilton (politician)|Neil Hamilton]], had been mired in controversy, and was defeated by the veteran [[BBC]] journalist [[Martin Bell]], who was aided by the decision of the main opposition parties (Labour and the Liberal Democrats) not to field candidates. Without such pacts, a [[Vote splitting|split vote]] is more likely under a [[First-past-the-post voting|first past the post]] electoral system, as in the UK.

Opposition supporters in safe seats have restricted means to affect election outcomes, and thus the incumbent parties can, in theory, decide to ignore those supporters' concerns, as they have no direct effect on the election result. Even those voters who are moderate supporters of the incumbent party may be disenfranchised by having a representative whose views may be more extreme than their own. Political objectors in such areas may experience marginalisation from wider democratic processes and [[political apathy]]. This is often regarded as undemocratic, and is a major argument in favour of various multi-member [[proportional representation]] election methods. Safe seats may receive far less political funding than marginal seats, as the parties will attempt to "buy" marginal seats with funding (a process known in North America and Australia as "[[pork barrel]]ling"), while ignoring safe seats which will reliably fall to the same party every time; this is especially true in cases where the safe seat is held by the minority party.

In countries that do not apply the first past the post system, many of which equally operate a geographic division-based system, selected or party sub-nominated candidates can be allocated a safer or more tenuous list position. If a party is strong enough nationwide to gather representations in all subdivisions, the top candidate(s) on each list tend to be very safely elected to parliament. This is seen in the extremely [[proportional representation|proportional]] election systems of the [[Nordic countries]], for example. Safe seats and candidates can be avoided altogether by a purposefully [[marginal seat|marginal]]-preference allocation of all divisions, ensuring all divisions are near-identically demographically diverse which may be achieved by pairing non-adjoining areas.

==Australia==
The [[Australian Electoral Commission]] defines seat margins as follows:<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.aec.gov.au/FAQs/Elections.htm|title=Elections – Frequently Asked Questions|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/australian_electoral_system/files/jscem/1998_election/sub88.pdf|title=Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters: The Conduct of the 1998 Federal Election|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission|date=12 March 1999}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Winning [[Two-party-preferred vote|2PP vote]]
! Margin
! Classification
|-
| 50 to 56%
| 0 to 6%
| Marginal
|-
| 56 to 60%
| 6 to 10%
| Fairly safe
|-
| 60 to 68%
| 10 to 18%
| Safe
|-
| Over 68%
| Over 18%
| Very safe
|}

In his election analysis, [[Psephology|psephologist]] [[Antony Green]] puts the cutoff between "safe" and "very safe" at 12%.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/qa.htm|title=Election Q&A|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|year=2010}}</ref>

In Australia's federal system, most rural seats are safe seats for either the [[National Party of Australia|National Party]] or [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal Party]]. Conversely, inner-city and poorer suburban seats are typically safe [[Australian Labor Party]] seats, and a few of the most affluent inner-middle urban seats are held by the Liberal Party. Marginals are generally concentrated in the middle-class outer-suburban areas of Australia's larger state capitals, which therefore decide most Australian federal elections.

At the [[2007 Australian federal election|2007 federal election]], the governing [[Australian Labor Party]]'s safest seat was the seat of [[Division of Batman]] in [[Melbourne]]'s inner-northern suburbs, with a two-party-preferred margin of 26.0%. The safest seat for the opposition [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal Party]] was the rural [[Victoria (Australia)|Victorian]] electorate of [[Division of Murray|Murray]], with a margin of 18.3%. The Liberal Party's junior coalition partner, the [[National Party of Australia|National Party]]'s safest seat was the [[division of Mallee]], also located in rural Victoria, with a margin of 21.3%.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007/pendulum2007.txt |author=Adam Carr |access-date=18 October 2008 |title=2007 Australian federal election electoral pendulum }}</ref> Following the 2022 election, the [[Division of Newcastle]], which Labor have held since the Federation of Australia in 1901, was the safest Labor seat in the country, and was held by the father-son combination of David Watkins and [[David Oliver Watkins]] from 1901 to 1958.

==Canada==
Examples include:

*[[Beauséjour (electoral district)|Beauséjour]], a riding in southeastern [[New Brunswick]], which is considered a safe seat for the [[Liberal Party of Canada|Liberal Party]].<ref>{{cite web|last=Tower|first=Katie|title=Economy, environment will be key factors in next week's election|url=http://www.sackvilletribunepost.com/index.cfm?sid=178866&sc=129|publisher=Sackville Tribune Post|date=14 October 2008|access-date=17 August 2009}}</ref> In 1990, when [[Jean Chrétien]] needed an open seat to become Leader of the Opposition, he chose Beauséjour in a by-election and won.<ref>{{cite news|title=Canada Votes 2008: Beauséjour |url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/024/ |publisher=[[CBC.ca]] |date=7 November 2008 |access-date=17 August 2009 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090322030318/http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/024/ |archive-date=22 March 2009 }}</ref>
*[[Bow River (electoral district)|Bow River]], located in southern Alberta, is considered a safe seat for the [[Conservative Party of Canada|Conservatives]]. In the [[2015 Canadian federal election|2015 federal election]], the Conservative candidate won by 77% of the vote.
*[[Central Nova]], located in east-central [[Nova Scotia]], which has previously been called a safe seat for the Conservative Party and its predecessor, the [[Progressive Conservative Party of Canada|Progressive Conservative Party]], having been held by either [[Elmer MacKay]] or his son [[Peter MacKay|Peter]] for all but five of forty years until [[2015 Canadian federal election|2015]]. The only time the riding was not in Conservative control was from [[1993 Canadian federal election|1993]] to [[1997 Canadian federal election|1997]], when the Progressive Conservatives were reduced to just two seats nationwide and a [[Social conservatism in Canada|socially conservative]] candidate ran for the Liberals. In 1983, when [[Brian Mulroney]] became Progressive Conservative leader and needed a seat in the House of Commons, he chose to run in Central Nova.<ref>{{cite web|last=Davis|first=Jeff|title=Swing voters could make anything happen next time in Central Nova|url=http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/july/7/swing_voters/&c=2|publisher=[[The Hill Times]]|date=7 July 2008|access-date=17 August 2009}}</ref> Liberal MP [[Sean Fraser (politician)|Sean Fraser]] won the seat in 2015,<ref>{{cite web|title=How Justin Trudeau's Liberal majority swept across Canada|url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-majority-liberal-regional-narrative-1.3279126|website=CBC News|access-date=21 October 2015}}</ref>  and was re-elected in 2019, 2021 and 2025.<ref>{{cite web|last=Omar|first=Nida|title=Canada election results: Central Nova|url=https://globalnews.ca/news/7854298/canada-election-central-nova-2021/|publisher=Global News|date=15 August 2021|access-date=3 December 2021}}</ref>
*[[Crowfoot (electoral district)|Crowfoot]], a Conservative stronghold located in southern [[Alberta]], which has been called the safest seat in the entire country. In the [[2008 Canadian federal election|2008 election]], Conservative candidate [[Kevin Sorenson]] won 82.04% of the vote, and in a ranking measuring the electoral competitiveness of ridings by ''[[National Post]]'' reporter Dan Arnold, the district came in last in all of Canada, having an average margin of victory of 74%.<ref>{{cite web|last=Arnold|first=Dan|title=Canada's most competitive ridings|url=http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/07/21/dan-arnold-canada-s-most-competitive-ridings.aspx|publisher=[[National Post]]|date=21 July 2009|access-date=17 August 2009}}{{dead link|date=October 2025|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref>
*[[Battle River—Crowfoot]], the successor to [[Crowfoot (electoral district)|Crowfoot]], is a solid Conservative stronghold and is considered one of the most solid seats in Canada. In the 2015 federal election, the Conservative candidate won by 80.91% of the vote.
*[[Mount Royal (electoral district)|Mount Royal]], a Liberal stronghold in [[Montreal]], [[Quebec]], held by a succession of Liberal MPs since 1940. Liberal [[Irwin Cotler]] won over 75% of the vote in the [[2004 Canadian federal election|2004 federal election]].<ref>{{cite news|title=Canada Votes 2006: Mount Royal|url=http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes2006/riding/079/|publisher=[[CBC.ca]]|access-date=17 August 2009}}</ref>
*[[Ottawa—Vanier (federal electoral district)|Ottawa—Vanier]], a Liberal stronghold in the eastern part of [[Ottawa]]. It has elected a Liberal Member of Parliament each federal election since its creation in [[1935 Canadian federal election|1935]], often in landslide victories. In fact, the previous electoral district which comprises most of the constituency, [[Russell (Ontario federal electoral district)|Russell]], had been solidly Liberal since 1887.
*[[Portage—Lisgar]], one of many rural, southern safe seats in the Prairies for the [[Conservative Party of Canada]].
*[[Saint-Laurent (federal electoral district)|Saint-Laurent—Cartierville]], yet another Liberal safe seat in Montreal.<ref>{{cite news|last=Bryden|first=Joan|title=Grits and Greens make a deal|url=https://www.thestar.com/news/2007/04/12/grits_and_greens_make_a_deal.html|publisher=[[Toronto Star]]|date=12 April 2007|access-date=18 August 2009}}</ref> It has been held by the Liberals since its creation.<ref>{{cite web|title=History of Federal Ridings since 1867: Saint-Laurent--Cartierville|url=http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Sites/LOP/HFER/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&rid=955&Include=|access-date=18 August 2009}}</ref> In the [[2004 Canadian federal election|2004 federal election]], incumbent [[Stéphane Dion]] won with over 65% of the vote, and over 21,000 votes more than his closest rival.<ref>{{cite news|title=Canada Votes 2004: Saint-Laurent-Cartierville|url=http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes2004/riding/098/|publisher=[[CBC.ca]]|date=29 June 2004|access-date=18 August 2009}}</ref>
*[[Wild Rose (electoral district)|Wild Rose]], a Conservative stronghold, also in southern [[Alberta]]. The incumbent, [[Blake Richards]], won 72.9% of the vote in the [[2008 Canadian federal election|2008 election]] in what ranked as the largest majority win in its history. His predecessor, [[Myron Thompson]], won 72% compared to 10% for his closest rival in the [[2006 Canadian federal election|2006 federal election]].
*[[York Centre (federal electoral district)|York Centre]], a safe seat for the Liberals in [[Toronto]]. Since the district's re-establishment in 1952, it has been out of Liberal hands only twice.<ref>{{cite news|title=York Centre|url=https://www.thestar.com/federalelection/candidates/ridingprofile/495335|publisher=[[Toronto Star]]|access-date=18 August 2009}}</ref>
*The City of Toronto, which holds [[List of Canadian federal electoral districts#Ontario|25 ridings]] is often considered a Liberal stronghold, having shut out the Conservative Party from the city in the six elections between 1993 and 2008, and having lost at most two ridings in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections to the [[New Democratic Party of Canada|New Democratic Party]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Tories struggle in Toronto's Liberal strongholds|url=http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060116/elxn_toronto_060116/20060116?s_name=election2006|publisher=[[CTV News]]|access-date=26 February 2010|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101021004525/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060116/elxn_toronto_060116/20060116?s_name=election2006|archive-date=21 October 2010}}</ref> The [[2011 Canadian Federal Election]] ended the Liberal fortress of Toronto when both Conservatives and New Democrats elected many new MPs in Toronto. The former Liberal strength was restored in 2015 as they won all 25 Toronto ridings.<ref>{{cite web|title=Toronto turns red as Liberals capture the entire city|url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/canada-election-2015-toronto-ridings-election-vote-results-1.3278822|website=CBC News|access-date=21 October 2015}}</ref> The city is not as safe at the provincial level; for instance, the [[Liberal Party of Ontario]] won only 3 of Toronto's 41 ridings in the [[2018 Ontario general election|2018 provincial election]].
*[[Fundy Royal]], a riding in Southern New Brunswick, is usually a safe seat for Conservatives. It has only been held by two Liberal MPs since its founding in 1914, its first having held one term from 1993 to 1997 and the latest having been elected in 2015.
*Southern Calgary, particularly [[Calgary Shepard]], [[Calgary Heritage]] and [[Calgary Midnapore]], is considered to be a solid Conservative stronghold. In the 3 April 2017 by-elections, the Conservative candidate for Midnapore won by 77% of the vote and the Conservative candidate for Heritage won by 71% of the vote. In the [[2015 Canadian federal election|2015 federal election]], the Conservative candidate for Shepard won by 65% of the vote.
*[[Sturgeon River—Parkland]], located in Alberta near [[Edmonton]], is considered a Conservative stronghold. In the 23 October 2017 by-election, the Conservative candidate won by 77% of the vote.
*[[Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake]], located in Eastern [[Saskatchewan]], is considered a Conservative stronghold, despite its low population. In the 11 December 2017 by-election, the Conservative candidate won by 69% of the vote.

==Fiji==
{{see also|House of Representatives of Fiji}}

In Fiji, prior to the [[2006 Fijian coup d'état|December 2006 military coup]], elections were held under the [[1997 Constitution of Fiji|1997 Constitution]], which allotted 46 of the [[House of Representatives of Fiji|House of Representatives]]' 71 seats on an ethnic basis. 23 were reserved for the indigenous majority, 19 for [[Indians in Fiji|Indo-Fijians]], 1 for [[Rotuma]]ns, and 3 for members of all other ethnic minorities. There was a strong tendency toward voting on ethnic lines. Thus, in the [[1999 Fijian general election|1999 general election]], although the indigenous seats were split between several parties, all 19 Indo-Fijian seats were won by the [[Fiji Labour Party]] – which won none of the indigenous seats. In the [[2001 Fijian general election|2001 general election]], the conservative indigenous nationalist [[Soqosoqo Duavata ni Lewenivanua]] party won 18 of the indigenous seats, with the other 5 going to the ultra-nationalist [[Conservative Alliance-Matanitu Vanua|Conservative Alliance]] – which later merged into the SDL. All 19 "Indian" seats were retained by the Labour Party. In the [[2006 Fijian general election|2006 general election]], all Indo-Fijian seats remained safely Labour, while the SDL won all 23 indigenous seats. Among other minorities, only the communal seat of [[West Central (General Electors Communal Constituency, Fiji)|West Central]] was a safe seat for the ethnic [[United Peoples Party (Fiji)|United Peoples Party]].<ref>[http://www.elections.gov.fj/results1999/sum_open_comm.html "Elections 1999 Results Summary"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20010922205709/http://www.elections.gov.fj/results1999/sum_open_comm.html |date=22 September 2001 }}, Fiji Elections Office</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20011116025519/http://elections.gov.fj/results2001/summaries/03_open_comm.html "2001 election: summary by open seats and type of communal seats"], Fiji Elections Office</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.elections.gov.fj/img/fijian-parties.gif|title=2006 election: Fijian communal constituencies|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060528043544/http://www.elections.gov.fj/img/fijian-parties.gif|archive-date=28 May 2006}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.elections.gov.fj/img/indian-parties.gif|archive-url=https://archive.today/20120729022648/http://www.elections.gov.fj/img/indian-parties.gif|url-status=dead|archive-date=29 July 2012|title=2006 election: Indian communal constituencies}}</ref>

The [[2013 Constitution of Fiji|new Constitution adopted in 2013]] abolished constituency representation altogether, in favour of party list seat allocation based on nationwide results. The [[2014 Fijian general election|2014 general election]] was held on that basis, thus putting an end to all safe seats. The Labour Party suffered a near wipe-out.

== Hong Kong ==
{{unreferenced section|date=May 2022}}
There is no formal definition in Hong Kong, yet there are some [[Functional constituency (Hong Kong)|functional constituency]] seats which are regarded as fully secured by a [[political party]] or a political camp.{{when|date=May 2022}}

Fully secured by the [[Pro-democracy camp (Hong Kong)|pan-democracy camp]]:
*[[Education (constituency)|Education]], formerly called '''Teaching''' in the colonial period, has been a safe seat of [[HKPTU]] since 1985 until now. Except the incumbent [[Ip Kin-yuen]], the LEGCO member elected in this constituency are members of the [[Democratic Party Hong Kong]].
*[[Legal (constituency)|Legal]] has been a safe seat of Pro-democracy camp since 1985, and a safe seat for [[Civic Party]] since 2008. [[Simon Ip|Ip Sik On]], who was elected by this constituency in 1991, is the only one who is not from the pro-democracy camp.

Fully secured by the [[pro-Beijing camp]]:
*[[Agriculture and Fisheries (constituency)|Agriculture and Fisheries]], which has been held by the [[Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong]] since its creation in 1998, with the DAB candidate being unopposed from 2000 to 2008.

== Indonesia ==
In Indonesia, a safe seat is defined as a constituency where not many well known figures contesting in the area or able to gain a comfortable win.<ref name="liputan6">{{cite web | title=Berjuang di Dapil 'Neraka', Bertarung di Dapil 'Surga' | date=25 April 2013 | url=https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/570316/berjuang-di-dapil-neraka-bertarung-di-dapil-surga }}</ref> One well known electoral district defined as such is [[East Java VII (electoral district)|East Java VII]] (covering [[Pacitan Regency|Pacitan]], [[Ngawi Regency|Ngawi]], [[Magetan Regency|Magetan]] and [[Trenggalek Regency|Trenggalek]]), a well known holdout for [[Democratic Party (Indonesia)|Demokrat]] because of [[Edhie Yudhoyono]]'s candidacy as one of the members representing the district.<ref name="liputan6" />

The term is also used for people who feel it is easy to advance in electoral districts which are considered to be [[Marginal seat|marginal electoral districts]].<ref>{{cite web | title=Didukung BPPKB Cibinong, Tuty Anggap di Dapil "Surga" | date=29 October 2018 | url=http://bogoronline.com/2018/10/didukung-bppkb-cibinong-tuty-anggap-di-dapil-surga/ }}</ref><ref>http://www.surabayapagi.com/read/22238//Politisi_Nasional_Berebut_di_Dapil_Jatim_VI.html{{dead link|date=March 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref>

== Malaysia ==
In Malaysia, the percentage of votes secured by a winning candidate defines the seat margin. In this case:

* A seat with winning percentage under 55.9% by a candidate identified as 'Margin' seat.
* A seat with winning percentage between 56% and 59.9% by a candidate identified as 'Fairly safe' seat.
* A seat with winning percentage more than 60% by a candidate identified as 'Safe' seat.

The northern, east coast, and rural constituencies have been safe seats for the [[Malaysian Islamic Party|Pan Malaysian Islamic Party]] (PAS) and [[Perikatan Nasional]] (PN). Especially in [[Kelantan]], PAS has been in government since [[1990 Malaysian state elections|1990]] (7 consecutive terms).

[[Pakatan Harapan]], the senior coalition in the current government has been a dominant coalition in highly industrialized states, namely [[Penang]], [[Selangor]] and [[Kuala Lumpur]]. Even prior to the [[2008 Malaysian general election|2008 elections]] which ended [[Barisan Nasional]] dominant over the country, PH and its predecessors performed well in these states despite never having a chance to rule over the states before. For Barisan Nasional, another major partner in the government, the southern states and [[Sabah]] are the safe seats for the coalition. During its dominant period, it also controlled [[Sarawak]] and west coast states.

Sabah and Sarawak are safe states for their local parties, with [[Gabungan Rakyat Sabah]] and [[Gabungan Parti Sarawak]] governing the states with supermajority. For Sabah, despite being described as a swing state in the past, it has been consistently ruled by parties that once a part in BN. Prior to the [[2018 Malaysian general election|2018 elections]], these states were described as 'fixed deposits' for BN as they won almost all seats there with a landslide.

==New Zealand==
In New Zealand, many rural electorates, and those based in wealthy suburban areas, notably the North Shore and eastern suburbs of [[Auckland]], are considered safe seats for the [[New Zealand National Party|National Party]]. An example of a safe National seat is [[East Coast Bays (New Zealand electorate)|East Coast Bays]], currently held by [[Erica Stanford]], who gained 71.52% of votes in [[2023 New Zealand general election|the 2023 election]], with only 19% of votes going to her [[New Zealand Labour Party|Labour]] [[Naisi Chen|rival]].<ref name="East Coast Bays 2023 election results"/> By contrast, inner-city and poorer suburban electorates such as those in [[South Auckland]] are typically safe Labour seats. For example, in [[2023 New Zealand general election|2023]], the seat of [[Māngere (New Zealand electorate)|Mangere]] was held by Labour list MP [[Lemauga Lydia Sosene]] with just under 60% of the vote, while her National rival won just under 20% of the vote even despite the nationwide Labour losses of that year.<ref name="East Coast Bays 2023 election results">{{cite web |author=New Zealand Electoral Commission |url=https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/electorate-details-21.html |title=Māngere - Official Result |website=[[Electoral Commission (New Zealand)|Electoral Commission]] |access-date= 12 May 2024 }}</ref>

Historically, some seats thought to be safe have witnessed surprise upsets. Perhaps the most dramatic recent case was the [[1996 New Zealand general election|1996 election]], in which the [[Maori seats]], safe Labour seats for the previous 60 years, were all won by [[New Zealand First]]. Meanwhile, in [[2023 New Zealand general election|the 2023 election]], Labour lost many seats that they had held for decades prior such as [[Mount Roskill (New Zealand electorate)|Mount Roskill]], [[Rongotai (New Zealand electorate)|Rongotai]] and [[Wellington Central (New Zealand electorate)|Wellington Central]].<ref>{{cite news |last1=Wilson |first1=Peter |title=Week in Politics: The 'multiple reasons' why Labour lost so badly |url=https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/500651/week-in-politics-the-multiple-reasons-why-labour-lost-so-badly |access-date=12 May 2024 |work=[[Radio New Zealand]] |date=20 October 2023 }}</ref>

The adoption of [[proportional representation]] by New Zealand, beginning in 1996, has decreased the importance of winning votes in geographical electorates. It remains to be seen what long-term effect proportional representation will have on the safety of individual electorate seats.

{| class="wikitable"
! colspan=4|Examples of safe seats in New Zealand
|-
! colspan=2|Party
! Current seats
! Former seats
|-
|{{party name with color|New Zealand Labour Party}}
|{{plainlist|
*{{NZ electorate link|Dunedin}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Kelston}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Mana}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Māngere}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Manurewa}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Mount Albert}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Panmure-Ōtāhuhu}}}}
|{{plainlist|
*{{NZ electorate link|Avon}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Grey Lynn}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Island Bay}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Manukau East}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Onehunga}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Papatoetoe}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Sydenham}}}}
|-
|{{party name with color|New Zealand National Party}}
|{{plainlist|
*{{NZ electorate link|Botany}}
*{{NZ electorate link|East Coast Bays}}
*{{NZ electorate link|North Shore}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Pakuranga}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Selwyn}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Southland}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Taranaki-King Country}}}}
|{{plainlist|
*{{NZ electorate link|Albany}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Fendalton}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Karori}}
*{{NZ electorate link|King Country}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Pahiatua}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Remuera}}
*{{NZ electorate link|Wallace}}}}
|}

== Philippines ==
{{see also|Solid North}}
While [[Party switching|party-switching]] in the Philippines is rampant, certain congressional districts have been held by [[Political dynasties in the Philippines|political families]] for generations. These are:

* [[Camarines Sur's 4th congressional district|Camarines Sur–4th]]: A Fuentebella has served in Congress since 1925. The Fuentebellas have held this district since its creation in 2010, held the [[Camarines Sur's 3rd congressional district|3rd district]] from 1992 to 2010, and the [[Camarines Sur's 2nd congressional district|2nd district]] from 1925 to 1972, except from 1931 to 1935, and from 1946 to 1953. A Fuentebella represented Bicol from 1978 to 1984.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Aga Muhlach clashes with 105-year-old Fuentebella dynasty|url=https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/aga-muhlach-clashes-with-100-yr-old-camarines-sur-dynasty|access-date=4 November 2020|website=Rappler|date=12 May 2013 |language=en}}</ref>
* [[Cebu's 5th congressional district|Cebu–5th]]: A Durano had held this seat until 2019 when they were defeated. Prior to redistricting, the Duranos held [[Cebu's 1st congressional district|Cebu–1st]] since 1949. The Duranos have also held the mayorship of [[Danao, Cebu|Danao]], the largest city in the district, for generations.<ref>{{Cite web|date=14 May 2019|title=Frasco breaks 70-year-reign of Duranos in fifth district|url=https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/234138/frasco-breaks-70-year-reign-of-duranos-in-fifth-district|access-date=4 November 2020|website=INQUIRER.net|language=en}}</ref>
* [[Isabela's 1st congressional district|Isabela–1st]]: An Albano has held this seat since 1987. Prior to redistricting, an Albano has represented [[Isabela's at-large congressional district|Isabela's at-large district]] or the Cagayan Valley from 1957 to 1986, except from 1965 to 1969.<ref>{{Cite web|date=15 May 2019|title=#HalalanResults: Albano, Dy dynasties win Isabela's top posts|url=https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/05/15/19/halalanresults-albano-dy-dynasties-win-isabelas-top-posts|access-date=4 November 2020|website=ABS-CBN News|language=en}}</ref>
* [[La Union's 1st congressional district|La Union–1st]]: An Ortega has held this seat since 1945 except for two instances, and continually since 1969.<ref>{{Cite web|title=La Union is still Ortega clan's stronghold|url=https://www.manilatimes.net/2019/05/20/news/regions/la-union-is-still-ortega-clans-stronghold/557121/|access-date=4 November 2020|website=The Manila Times|date=20 May 2019|language=en-US}}</ref>
* [[Tarlac's 1st congressional district|Tarlac–1st]]: A Cojuangco has held this seat from 1907 to 1909, from 1934 to 1946, and continually since 1961.

Under the usual definition, [[Capiz's 1st congressional district|Capiz–1st]] has been held by the [[Liberal Party (Philippines)|Liberal Party]] since 1946, except from 1953 to 1957; as the Liberals have not nominated someone in this district in the 2025 election, their domination of this district will end. [[Bohol's 3rd congressional district|Bohol's 3rd district]] has been held by the [[Nacionalista Party]] from 1912 to 1972.

== South Korea ==
From the 1960s, parliamentary constituencies in [[Yeongnam|Gyeongsang region]], especially Northern [[North Gyeongsang|Gyeongbuk]] and Western [[South Gyeongsang|Gyeongnam]], are considered as safe seats for [[People Power Party (South Korea)|People Power Party]].

City centres in Southeastern Gyeongnam, Southern Gyeogbuk and parliamentary constituencies in rural [[Gangwon Province, South Korea|Gangwon]], [[North Chungcheong|Chungbuk]], [[South Chungcheong|Chungnam]] and [[Gyeonggi Province|Gyeonggi]] and affluent villages in such as [[Gangnam-gu]], [[Seocho-gu]], [[Songpa-gu]] and [[Yongsan-gu]] of [[Seoul]], [[Haeundae District|Haeundae-gu]], [[Nam District, Busan|Nam-gu]], [[Dongnae District|Dongnae-gu]] and [[Suyeong District|Suyeong-gu]] of [[Busan]] are also considered as safe seats for [[People Power Party (South Korea)|People Power Party]].

Parliamentary constituencies in industrial areas and built-up residential areas in [[Gyeonggi Province|Gyeonggi]], Southeastern Gyeongnam, [[Cheongju]] – [[Daejeon]] – [[Sejong City]] and Jeolla regions such as [[North Jeolla|Jeonbuk]] and [[South Jeolla|Jeonnam]] are considered as safe seats for the [[Democratic Party (South Korea, 2015)|Democratic Party]].

== United Kingdom ==
{{update|date=August 2024}}
{{see also|Red wall (British politics)|Blue wall (British politics)}}
On 6 April 2010, the [[Electoral Reform Society]] (ERS) estimated that going into the [[2010 United Kingdom general election|2010 general election]], of the 650 [[List of United Kingdom Parliament constituencies|constituencies]], 382 (59%) were safe seats. Some of these seats have since been lost by the parties that held them at the time, notably most of the Liberal Democrat seats and some Labour seats, meaning they can no longer be considered "safe".<ref name=ERS-2010-04>{{cite web|title=Election already over in nearly 400 seats|url=http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/safe-seats/|publisher=Electoral Reform Society|access-date=13 January 2012}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable sortable" width=30%
|-align="center"
! colspan="2" | Party
! Safe seats
! % safe seats
|-align="center"
| style="background-color:#0087DC;" | 
| [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservatives]]
| 172
| 45.03%
|-align="center" 
| style="background-color:#DC241F;" |
| [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour]]
| 165
| 43.19%
|-align="center"
| style="background-color:#FDBB30;" |
| [[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Lib Dems]]
| 29
| 7.59%
|-align="center"
| style="background-color:#FFFF00;" |
| [[Scottish National Party|SNP]]
| 3
| 0.79%
|-align="center"
| style="background-color:#008142;" |
| [[Plaid Cymru]]
| 2
| 0.52%
|-align="center"
| colspan="2" | [[List of political parties in Northern Ireland|Northern Ireland parties]]
| 11
| 2.88%
|-align="center" class="sortbottom"
! colspan="2" | Total
! 382
! 100%
|-
|}

Examples of safe seats for the [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour Party]] are in major urban areas and the industrial centres, such as the [[North West England|North West]] ([[Liverpool]], [[Manchester]]); the [[North East England|North East]] ([[Newcastle upon Tyne|Newcastle]], [[City of Sunderland|Sunderland]]); South and West [[Yorkshire]], the Valleys of [[South Wales]]; the [[West Midlands (county)|West Midlands]] county and parts of [[Inner London]] (e.g. [[London Borough of Hackney|Hackney]] and [[London Borough of Newham|Newham]]).

Many areas of the Central Belt of Scotland, such as Glasgow and Edinburgh, were seen as safe Labour seats until the 2015 election, when the [[Scottish National Party]] took all but one Labour seat in Scotland ([[Edinburgh South (UK Parliament constituency)|Edinburgh South]]).

Safe seats for the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]] tend to be in rural areas: the [[Home Counties]] (e.g. [[Surrey]], [[Buckinghamshire]]), the [[Non-metropolitan county|shires]] (e.g. [[North Yorkshire]] and [[Cheshire]]) and affluent areas of [[London]] (e.g. [[Chelsea and Fulham (UK Parliament constituency)|Chelsea and Fulham]]).

The safest seat in the [[2017 United Kingdom general election|2017 general election]] was [[Liverpool Walton (UK Parliament constituency)|Liverpool Walton]], where Labour received 86% of the vote, giving them a 77% majority over the second-placed Conservatives (at 9%).<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-safe-seat-marginal-constituencies-house-of-commons-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-a7886571.html|title=Labour now has all 10 of the safest seats in UK, House of Commons analysis reveals|last=Cowburn|first=Ashley|date=10 August 2017|website=The Independent|language=en|access-date=16 August 2019}}</ref> [[Christchurch (UK Parliament constituency)|Christchurch]] is a safe Conservative seat; in 2017 the party gathered 69.6% of the vote there, giving it a near-50% majority over Labour.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/christchurch-dorset-safest-tory-seat-angry-voters-theresa-may|title=In the safest Tory seat in the country, who do angry, alarmed voters want to be PM?|last=Anthony|first=Andrew|date=25 May 2019|work=The Observer|access-date=16 August 2019|language=en-GB|issn=0029-7712}}</ref>

At the [[2015 United Kingdom general election|2015 general election]], seven out of eight of the Liberal Democrats' remaining seats were marginal, with their soon-to-be leader [[Tim Farron]]'s seat of [[Westmorland and Lonsdale]] being the only one considered safe. [[Orkney and Shetland (UK Parliament constituency)|Orkney and Shetland]] has been held by the Liberal Democrats and their predecessor party, the [[Liberal Party (UK)|Liberal Party]], continuously since the [[1950 United Kingdom general election|1950 general election]], but was almost lost to the [[Scottish National Party]] in the latter's national landslide. The seat of [[Sheffield Hallam (UK Parliament constituency)|Sheffield Hallam]] was notable in the run up to the [[2015 United Kingdom general election|2015 general election]], when opinion polls were forecasting a Labour gain despite the incumbent MP, [[Nick Clegg]], being the party leader and [[Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom|Deputy Prime Minister]]. Clegg held the seat, albeit with a much reduced majority of just 2,353 (4.2%). In 2017, several Lib Dem MPs either regained their seat, such as [[Vince Cable]] and [[Ed Davey]], or won new ones. Despite the net gain in seats, several were still lost, such as Clegg's, whilst Farron's majority was reduced to less than 1,000.

The ERS identifies what it calls "super safe seats", which have been held continuously by one party since the 19th century. In so doing, it equates seats with their rough equivalents under previous boundaries. For example, following the 2010 general election, it identifies the national representative of the area forming [[Haltemprice and Howden (UK Parliament constituency)|Haltemprice and Howden]] (drawn as a constituency in 1997) as having been a Conservative since the [[1837 United Kingdom general election|1837 general election]]. Similarly, it considers that [[Wokingham (UK Parliament constituency)|Wokingham]] (and a few others)  have been held by the Conservative Party since 1885, [[Devon East (UK Parliament constituency)|Devon East]], [[Fylde (UK Parliament constituency)|Fylde]] and [[Arundel and South Downs (UK Parliament constituency)|Arundel and South Downs]] since 1868, [[Hampshire North East (UK Parliament constituency)|Hampshire North East]] since 1857, and [[Rutland and Melton (UK Parliament constituency)|Rutland and Melton]], [[Bognor Regis and Littlehampton (UK Parliament constituency)|Bognor Regis and Littlehampton]], and [[East Worthing and Shoreham (UK Parliament constituency)|East Worthing and Shoreham]] all since 1841. (For historical reasons, the Conservative Party being older than the other current main parties, it holds all the oldest safe seats.)<ref>[http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/safe-seats/ "Safe seats"], Electoral Reform Society</ref>

Even the safest of seats can be – and sometimes are – upset. Whilst it is rare for the opposition to take such seats, outside candidates may be able to. Examples include the election of [[Peter Law]] and [[George Galloway]] in very safe Labour seats in 2005, [[Jim Murphy]] in the [[Eastwood (UK Parliament constituency)|Eastwood]] constituency in Scotland in 1997, [[Martin Bell]] in the safe Conservative seat of [[Tatton (UK Parliament constituency)|Tatton]] in 1997, and most recently, [[Helen Morgan (politician)|Helen Morgan]] in the Conservatives' historically safest seat, [[North Shropshire (UK Parliament constituency)|North Shropshire]], in a [[2021 North Shropshire by-election|by-election in 2021]].

The loss of safe seats can become historic moments: the defeat of [[Michael Portillo]] in his "safe" Conservative seat in 1997 created the "[[Portillo moment]]". That expression has since been used to describe huge voting swings that generally usher in a new government, as occurred in 1997. Similarly, in 2015, the Labour Party lost many formerly safe seats in Scotland, including [[Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath]], which had previously been held by former Prime Minister [[Gordon Brown]], and [[Paisley and Renfrewshire South (UK Parliament constituency)|Paisley and Renfrewshire South]], the seat of [[shadow Foreign Secretary]] [[Douglas Alexander]]. In both cases, [[Swing (politics)|swings]] of over 25% to the [[Scottish National Party|SNP]] were recorded.<ref>{{cite news|title=Paisley & Renfrewshire South|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000053|website=BBC News|access-date=17 October 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000041|website=BBC News|access-date=17 October 2015}}</ref> In the [[2019 United Kingdom general election|2019 general election]], Labour lost many formerly safe seats that were part of its '[[Red Wall (British politics)|Red Wall]]' in northern England. These defeats represented about 20% of the party's overall 2017 vote in such seats.<ref name="miscampbell20191218">{{Cite news |url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/we-predicted-workington-man-as-key-to-election-but-underestimated-the-chasm-with-labour-27nxct3kg |title=How the Tories won over Workington Man |last=Miscampbell |first=Guy |date=18 December 2019 |work=[[The Times]] |access-date=18 December 2019 |language=en |issn=0140-0460}}</ref>

==United States==
{{see also|Solid South|Blue wall (U.S. politics)|Left Coast}}
The [[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] rates [[List of United States congressional districts|congressional districts]] on how strongly they lean toward either major party. As of the 2022 redistricting, [[California's 12th congressional district|California's 12th]] district is the most Democratic at D+40, while [[Alabama's 4th congressional district|Alabama's 4th]] district is the most Republican at R+33.<ref>{{cite web |title=2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list |publisher=[[The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter]] |access-date=28 August 2022 |date=12 July 2022}}</ref>

Other examples of a safe seat for the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrats]] is [[California's 11th congressional district]], which currently covers most of the city of [[San Francisco]]. This district and its predecessors have been in Democratic hands without interruption since 1949. Its current representative, former [[Speaker of the United States House of Representatives|House Speaker]] [[Nancy Pelosi]], was most recently reelected with 77.6 percent of the vote.<ref>{{cite web |title=November 3, 2020, General Election: United States Representative |url=https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2020-general/sov/24-us-reps.pdf |website=elections.gov}}</ref>{{failed verification|date=October 2023 |reason=source says Pelosi won the 12th, not the 11th.}}

Safe [[United States Republican Party|Republican]] seats include [[Tennessee's 1st congressional district]] and [[Tennessee's 2nd congressional district]], which are located in the eastern part of the state. Both districts have been held by Republicans or their predecessors (except for two terms in the 1st) since 1859. These districts elected some of the few truly senior Southern Republican Congressmen before the 1950s.

==See also==
* [[Gerrymandering]]
* [[Rotten and pocket boroughs]], corrupt types of safe seat in the United Kingdom prior to the Reform Act 1832

==References==
{{Reflist|30em}}

[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Political terminology]]
[[Category:Electoral geography]]