View source for Space weather

{{Short description|Branch of space physics and aeronomy}}
{{Distinguish|Space Weather (journal)}}
[[File:Space weather effects.jpg|thumb|upright=2|Space weather effects]]
'''Space weather''' is a branch of [[space physics]] and [[aeronomy]], or [[heliophysics]], concerned with the varying conditions within the [[Solar System]] and its [[heliosphere]]. This includes the effects of the [[solar wind]], especially on the Earth's [[magnetosphere]], [[ionosphere]], [[thermosphere]], and [[exosphere]].<ref>{{cite book |first1=Barbara B. |last1=Poppe |first2=Kristen P. |last2=Jorden |year=2006 |publisher=Johnson Books, Boulder, Colorado |title=Sentinels of the Sun: Forecasting Space Weather|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=WMh4REf3iZQC|isbn=978-1-55566-379-7}}</ref> Though physically distinct, space weather is analogous to the terrestrial [[weather]] of Earth's [[atmosphere of Earth|atmosphere]] ([[troposphere]] and [[stratosphere]]). The term "space weather" was first used in the 1950s and popularized in the 1990s.<ref name="origin">{{cite journal |last = Cade III |first = William B. |author2 = Christina Chan-Park |title = The Origin of "Space Weather" |journal = Space Weather |volume = 13|issue = 2|pages = 99|date = 2015 |doi = 10.1002/2014SW001141 |bibcode = 2015SpWea..13...99C|doi-access = free }}</ref> Later, it prompted research into "[[space climate]]", the large-scale and long-term patterns of space weather.

==History==
For many centuries, the effects of space weather were noticed, but not understood. Displays of [[aurora (astronomy)|auroral]] light have long been observed at high latitudes.

=== Beginnings ===
In 1724, [[George Graham (clockmaker)|George Graham]] reported that the needle of a [[magnetic compass]] was regularly deflected from [[magnetic north]] over the course of each day. This effect was eventually attributed to overhead electric currents flowing in the ionosphere and magnetosphere by [[Balfour Stewart]] in 1882, and confirmed by [[Arthur Schuster]] in 1889 from analysis of magnetic observatory data.

In 1852, astronomer and British Major General [[Edward Sabine]] showed that the probability of the occurrence of [[geomagnetic storm]]s on Earth was correlated with the number of [[sunspots]], demonstrating a novel solar-terrestrial interaction. The [[solar storm of 1859]] caused brilliant auroral displays and disrupted global [[telegraph]] operations. [[Richard Christopher Carrington|Richard Carrington]] correctly connected the storm with a [[solar flare]] that he had observed the day before near a large sunspot group, demonstrating that specific solar events could affect the Earth.

[[Kristian Birkeland]] explained the physics of aurorae by creating artificial ones in his laboratory, and predicted the solar wind.

The introduction of radio revealed that solar weather could cause extreme static or noise. [[Radar jamming]] during a large solar event in 1942 led to the discovery of solar radio bursts, radio waves over a broad frequency range created by a solar flare.

=== The 20th century ===
In the 20th century, the interest in space weather expanded as military and commercial systems came to depend on systems affected by space weather. [[Communications satellites]] are a vital part of global commerce. [[Weather satellite]] systems provide information about terrestrial weather. The signals from satellites of a [[global positioning system]] (GPS) are used in a wide variety of applications. Space weather phenomena can interfere with or damage these satellites or interfere with the radio signals with which they operate. Space weather phenomena can cause damaging surges in long-distance [[Overhead power line|transmission lines]] and expose passengers and crew of aircraft travel to [[radiation]],<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Fisher | first1 = Genene M | title = ''Integrating Space Weather and Meteorological Products for Aviation'', (2003) | journal = Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. | volume = 84 | issue = 11| pages = 1519–1523 | doi = 10.1175/BAMS-84-11-1519 | bibcode = 2003BAMS...84.1519F | year = 2003 | doi-broken-date = 12 July 2025 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Meier | first1 = Matthias M | last2 = Hubiak | first2 = Melina | year = 2010 | title = Measurements of the radiation quality factor Q at aviation altitudes during solar minimum (2006–2008) | journal = Adv. Space Res. | volume = 45 | issue = 9| pages = 1178–1181 | doi=10.1016/j.asr.2009.08.008| bibcode = 2010AdSpR..45.1178M }}</ref> especially on polar routes.

The [[International Geophysical Year]] <!-- (IGY) --> increased research into space weather. Ground-based data obtained during IGY demonstrated that the aurorae occurred in an ''auroral oval'', a permanent region of luminescence 15 to 25° in latitude from the magnetic poles and 5 to 20° wide.<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Feldstein | first1 = Y. I. | year = 1986 | title = A Quarter Century with the Auroral Oval, Eos | journal = Trans. Am. Geophys. Union | volume = 67 | issue = 40| page = 761 | doi=10.1029/eo067i040p00761-02| bibcode = 1986EOSTr..67..761F}}</ref> In 1958, the [[Explorer I]] satellite discovered the [[Van Allen radiation belt|Van Allen belts]],<ref>Paul Dickson, Sputnik: The Launch of the Space Race. (Toronto: MacFarlane Walter & Ross, 2001), 190.</ref> regions of radiation particles trapped by the Earth's magnetic field. In January 1959, the [[Soviet Union|Soviet]] [[satellite]] [[Luna 1]] first directly observed the solar wind and measured its strength. A smaller [[International Heliophysical Year]] (IHY) occurred in 2007–2008.

In 1969,'' INJUN-5'' (or ''Explorer 40''<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1968-066B |title=NASA NSSDC INJUN-5 page |access-date=2019-01-13 }}</ref>) made the first direct observation of the electric field impressed on the Earth's high-latitude ionosphere by the solar wind.<ref>Cauffman, D., and D. Gurnett (1971), Double-Probe Measurements of Convection Electric Fields with the Injun-5 Satellite, J. Geophys. Res., 76(25), 6014-6027</ref> In the early 1970s, Triad data demonstrated that permanent electric currents flowed between the auroral oval and the magnetosphere.<ref>A. J. Zmuda and J. C. Armstrong, ''The Diurnal Flow Pattern of Field-Aligned Currents'', J. Geophys. Res., 79, 31, 4611pp, 1974</ref>

The term "space weather" came into usage in the late 1950s as the space age began and satellites began to measure the [[space environment]].<ref name="origin"/> The term regained popularity in the 1990s along with the belief that space's impact on human systems demanded a more coordinated research and application framework.<ref name="nas1997">{{Cite book|title = Space Weather: A Research Perspective {{!}} The National Academies Press|url = http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12272|access-date = 2015-07-24 |publisher=National Academy of Science |year=1997 |quote=Space weather describes the conditions in space that affect Earth and its technological systems. Our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field, and our location in the solar system |doi = 10.17226/12272|isbn = 978-0-309-12237-5}}</ref>

== Programs ==
=== US National Space Weather Program ===
[[File:Space Weather Watch, 2024-12-29-2000z.png|thumb|A geomagnetic storm watch issued by Space Weather Prediction Center]]
The purpose of the US National Space Weather Program is to focus research on the needs of the affected commercial and military communities, to connect the research and user communities, to create coordination between operational data centers, and to better define user community needs. NOAA operates the National Weather Service's [[Space Weather Prediction Center]].<ref>[https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center - Homepage]</ref>

The concept was turned into an action plan in 2000,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-ip/pdf/nswpip.pdf |title=The National Space Weather Program: Strategic Plan, Implementation Plan and Space Weather Architecture Transition Plan and Report of the Assessment Committee for the NSWP |publisher=Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology |year=2000 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030417130810/http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-ip/pdf/nswpip.pdf |archive-date=2003-04-17 }}</ref> an implementation plan in 2002, an assessment in 2006<ref>{{Cite web|url = http://www.nswp.gov/nswp_acreport0706.pdf|title = Report of the Assessment Committee for the National Space Weather Program|date = 2006|access-date = July 24, 2015|publisher = Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology|url-status = dead|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160303185726/http://www.nswp.gov/nswp_acreport0706.pdf|archive-date = March 3, 2016}}</ref> and a revised strategic plan in 2010.<ref>{{Cite web|title = 2010 National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan|url = http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-p30.htm|website = www.ofcm.gov|access-date = 2015-07-24|url-status = dead|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140404153245/http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-p30.htm|archive-date = 2014-04-04}}</ref> A revised action plan was scheduled to be released in 2011 followed by a revised implementation plan in 2012.

=== ICAO Space Weather Advisory ===
[[International Civil Aviation Organization]] (ICAO) implemented a Space Weather Advisory program in late 2019. Under this program, ICAO designated four global space weather service providers:<ref>{{Cite AWH|chapter=26|page=29|year=2024}} {{PD-notice}}</ref>
* The United States, which is done by the [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] (NOAA) [[Space Weather Prediction Center]].
* The Australia, Canada, France, and Japan (ACFJ) consortium, comprising space weather agencies from Australia, Canada, France, and Japan.
* The Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services (PECASUS), comprising space weather agencies from Finland (lead), Belgium, the United Kingdom, Poland, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Austria, and Cyprus.
* The China-Russian Federation Consortium (CRC) comprising space weather agencies from China and the Russian Federation.

=== Government risk assessments ===
Space weather is listed as a natural hazard on risk assessments in countries such as:
* [[Republic of Ireland|Ireland]] <ref>{{cite web |title=National Risk Assessment 2024 – Overview of Strategic Risks |url=https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-the-taoiseach/policy-information/national-risk-assessment-2024-overview-of-strategic-risks/ |website=gov.ie |access-date=23 October 2025 |language=en}}</ref>
* [[The United Kingdom]] <ref>{{cite web |title=National Risk Register 2025 |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-2025 |website=GOV.UK |access-date=23 October 2025 |language=en}}</ref>
* [[New Zealand]] <ref>{{cite web |title=New Zealand's National Risks {{!}} Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) |url=https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/risk-and-resilience/national-risk-and-resilience-framework/new-zealands-national-risks |website=www.dpmc.govt.nz |access-date=23 October 2025 |language=en |date=18 September 2025}}</ref>

==Phenomena==
Within the [[Solar System]], space weather is influenced by the solar wind and the [[interplanetary magnetic field]] <!-- (IMF) --> carried by the solar wind [[plasma (physics)|plasma]]. A variety of physical phenomena is associated with space weather, including [[geomagnetic storm]]s and [[substorm]]s, energization of the [[Van Allen radiation belt]]s, ionospheric disturbances and [[scintillation (astronomy)|scintillation]] of satellite-to-ground radio signals and long-range radar signals, [[aurora (astronomy)|aurorae]], and [[geomagnetically induced current]]s at Earth's surface. [[Coronal mass ejection]]s <!-- (CMEs) --> are also important drivers of space weather, as they can compress the magnetosphere and trigger geomagnetic storms. [[Solar energetic particles]] (SEP) accelerated by coronal mass ejections or solar flares can trigger [[solar particle event]]s<!-- (SPEs) -->, a critical driver of human impact space weather, as they can damage electronics onboard spacecraft (e.g. ''[[Galaxy 15]]'' failure), and threaten the lives of [[astronaut]]s, as well as increase radiation hazards to high-altitude, high-latitude aviation.

==Effects==
===Spacecraft electronics===
[[File:ExtremeEvent 20031026-00h 20031106-24h.jpg|thumb|right|320px|GOES-11 and GOES-12 monitored space weather conditions during the [[Halloween solar storms|October 2003 solar activity]]<ref name="Extreme Space Weather Events">{{cite web | title=Extreme Space Weather Events | publisher=[[National Geophysical Data Center]] | url=http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi_greatest.html| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20011010173025/http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi_greatest.html| url-status=dead| archive-date=October 10, 2001}}</ref>]]

Some spacecraft failures can be directly attributed to space weather; many more are thought to have a space weather component. For example, 46 of the 70 failures reported in 2003 occurred during the October 2003 geomagnetic storm. The two most common adverse space weather effects on spacecraft are [[radiation damage]] and [[spacecraft charging]].

Radiation (high-energy particles) passes through the skin of the spacecraft and into the electronic components. In most cases, the radiation causes an erroneous signal or changes one bit in memory of a spacecraft's electronics ([[single event upset]]s). In a few cases, the radiation destroys a section of the electronics ([[latchup|single-event latchup]]).

Spacecraft charging is the accumulation of an [[electrostatic charge]] on a nonconducting material on the spacecraft's surface by low-energy particles. If enough charge is built up, a discharge (spark) occurs. This can cause an erroneous signal to be detected and acted on by the spacecraft computer. A recent study indicated that spacecraft charging is the predominant space weather effect on spacecraft in [[geosynchronous orbit]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Choi|first=Ho-Sung |author2=J. Lee |author3=K.-S. Cho |author4=Y.-S. Kwak |author5=I.-H. Cho |author6=Y.-D. Park |author7=Y.-H. Kim |author8-link=Daniel N. Baker |author8=D. N. Baker |author9=G. D. Reeves |author10=D.-K. Lee |title=Analysis of GEO spacecraft anomalies: Space weather relationships|journal=Space Weather|year=2011|volume=9|issue=S06001|page=12|doi=10.1029/2010SW000597|s2cid=120192698 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2011SpWea...9.6001C }}</ref>

===Spacecraft orbit changes===
The orbits of spacecraft in [[low Earth orbit]] (LEO) decay to lower and lower altitudes due to the resistance from the friction between the spacecraft's surface (''i.e. '', drag) and the outer layer of the Earth's atmosphere (or the thermosphere and exosphere). Eventually, a LEO spacecraft falls out of orbit and towards the Earth's surface. Many spacecraft launched in the past few decades have the ability to fire a small rocket to manage their orbits. The rocket can increase altitude to extend lifetime, to direct the re-entry towards a particular (marine) site, or route the satellite to avoid collision with other spacecraft. Such maneuvers require precise information about the orbit. A geomagnetic storm can cause an orbit change over a few days that otherwise would occur over a year or more. The geomagnetic storm adds heat to the thermosphere, causing the thermosphere to expand and rise, increasing the drag on spacecraft. The [[2009 satellite collision]] between the ''Iridium 33'' and ''Cosmos 2251'' demonstrated the importance of having precise knowledge of all objects in orbit. ''Iridium 33'' had the capability to maneuver out of the path of ''Cosmos 2251 ''and could have evaded the crash, if a credible collision prediction had been available.

===Humans in space===
{{Main|Effect of spaceflight on the human body}}

The exposure of a human body to [[ionizing radiation]] has the same [[acute radiation syndrome|harmful effects]] whether the source of the radiation is a medical [[X-ray machine]], a [[nuclear power plant]], or radiation in space. The degree of the harmful effect depends on the length of exposure and the radiation's [[energy density]]. The ever-present [[radiation belt]]s extend down to the altitude of crewed spacecraft such as the [[International Space Station#Radiation|International Space Station]] (ISS) and the [[Space Shuttle]], but the amount of exposure is within the [[Spaceflight radiation carcinogenesis#Current Permissible Exposure Limits|acceptable lifetime exposure limit]] under normal conditions. During a major space weather event that includes an SEP burst, the [[flux]] can increase by orders of magnitude. Areas within ISS provide shielding that can keep the total dose within safe limits.<ref>{{Cite web|title = Space station radiation shields 'disappointing' - New Scientist|url = https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2956-space-station-radiation-shields-disappointing.html|access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref> For the [[Space Shuttle]], such an event would have required immediate mission termination.

===Ground systems===
====Spacecraft signals====
The ionosphere bends radio waves in the same manner that water in a pool bends visible light. When the medium through which such waves travel is disturbed, the light image or radio information is distorted and can become unrecognizable. The degree of distortion (scintillation) of a radio wave by the ionosphere depends on the signal frequency. Radio signals in the [[very high frequency|VHF]] band (30 to 300&nbsp;MHz) can be distorted beyond recognition by a disturbed ionosphere. Radio signals in the [[ultra high frequency|UHF]] band (300&nbsp;MHz to 3&nbsp;GHz) transit a disturbed ionosphere, but a receiver may not be able to keep locked to the carrier frequency. GPS uses signals at 1575.42&nbsp;MHz (L1) and 1227.6&nbsp;MHz (L2) that can be distorted by a disturbed ionosphere. Space weather events that corrupt GPS signals can significantly impact society. For example, the [[Wide Area Augmentation System]] <!-- (WAAS) --> operated by the US [[Federal Aviation Administration]] (FAA) is used as a navigation tool for North American commercial aviation. It is disabled by every major space weather event. Outages can range from minutes to days. Major space weather events can push the disturbed polar ionosphere 10° to 30° of latitude toward the equator and can cause large ionospheric gradients (changes in density over distance of hundreds of km) at mid and low latitude. Both of these factors can distort GPS signals.

===Long-distance radio signals===
Radio waves in the [[high frequency|HF]] band (3 to 30&nbsp;MHz) (also known as the [[shortwave]] band) are reflected by the ionosphere. Since the ground also reflects HF waves, a signal can be transmitted around the curvature of the Earth beyond the line of sight. During the 20th century, HF communications was the only method for a ship or aircraft far from land or a base station to communicate. The advent of systems such as [[Iridium satellite constellation|Iridium]] brought other methods of communications, but HF remains critical for vessels that do not carry the newer equipment and as a critical backup system for others. Space weather events can create irregularities in the ionosphere that scatter HF signals instead of reflecting them, preventing HF communications. At auroral and polar latitudes, small space weather events that occur frequently disrupt HF communications. At mid-latitudes, HF communications are disrupted by solar radio bursts, by X-rays from solar flares (which enhance and disturb the ionospheric D-layer) and by [[Total Electron Content|TEC]] enhancements and irregularities during major geomagnetic storms.

Trans[[polar route|polar airline route]]s are particularly sensitive to space weather, in part because [[Federal Aviation Regulations]] require reliable communication over the entire flight.<ref>FAA Advisory Circular 120-42B, June 6, 2008, Extended Operations (ETOPS and Polar Operations)</ref> Diverting such a flight is estimated to cost about $100,000.<ref name="nap.edu">{{Cite book|title = Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report {{!}} The National Academies Press|doi = 10.17226/12507|year = 2008|isbn = 978-0-309-12769-1|last1 = Council|first1 = National Research|last2 = Sciences|first2 = Division on Engineering Physical|last3 = Board|first3 = Space Studies|last4 = Workshop|first4 = Committee on the Societal Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A.}}</ref>

[[File:Aviation radiation environment.png|thumbnail|All passengers in commercial aircraft flying above {{convert|26,000|ft}} typically experience some exposure in this aviation radiation environment.]]

===Humans in commercial aviation ===
The magnetosphere guides cosmic ray and solar energetic particles to polar latitudes, while high-energy charged particles enter the mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere. These energetic particles at the top of the atmosphere shatter atmospheric atoms and molecules, creating harmful lower-energy particles that penetrate deep into the atmosphere and create measurable radiation. All aircraft flying above 8&nbsp;km (26,200 feet) altitude are exposed to these particles. The dose exposure is greater in polar regions than at midlatitude and equatorial regions. Many commercial aircraft fly over the polar region. When a space weather event causes radiation exposure to exceed the safe level set by aviation authorities,<ref>FAA Advisory Circular 120-52, March 5, 1990, Radiation exposure of air carrier crew members</ref> the aircraft's flight path is diverted.

Measurements of the radiation environment at commercial aircraft altitudes above 8&nbsp;km (26,000&nbsp;ft) have historically been done by instruments that record the data on board where the data are then processed later on the ground. However, a system of real-time radiation measurements on-board aircraft has been developed through the NASA Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) program.<ref>W. K., Tobiska, D. Bouwer, D. Smart, M. Shea, J. Bailey, L. Didkovsky, K. Judge, H. Garrett, W. Atwell, B. Gersey, R. Wilkins, D. Rice, R. Schunk, D. Bell, C. Mertens, X. Xu, M. Wiltberger, S. Wiley, E. Teets, B. Jones, S. Hong, K. Yoon, Global real-time dose measurements using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system, Space Weather, 14, 1053-1080 (2016).</ref> [http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~ARMAS/ ARMAS] has flown hundreds of flights since 2013, mostly on research aircraft, and sent the data to the ground through Iridium satellite links. The eventual goal of these types of measurements is to data assimilate them into physics-based global radiation models, e.g., NASA's Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System ([http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~nairas/index.html NAIRAS]), so as to provide the weather of the radiation environment rather than the climatology.

===Ground-induced electric fields===
[[Geomagnetic storm|Magnetic storm activity]] can induce geoelectric fields in the Earth's conducting [[lithosphere]].<ref>{{cite journal | doi = 10.1109/27.902215 | volume=28 | title=Geomagnetically induced currents during magnetic storms | year=2000 | journal=IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science | pages=1867–1873 | last1 = Pirjola | first1 = R.| issue=6 | bibcode=2000ITPS...28.1867P }}</ref> Corresponding voltage differentials can [[Geomagnetically induced current|find their way into electric power grids through ground connections]], driving uncontrolled electric currents that interfere with grid operation, damage transformers, trip protective relays, and sometimes cause blackouts.<ref>Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, pp. 1-68. Roy. Acad. Engineer., London, UK (2013)</ref> This complicated chain of causes and effects was demonstrated during [[March 1989 geomagnetic storm|the magnetic storm of March 1989]],<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Allen | first1 = J. | last2 = Frank | first2 = L. | last3 = Sauer | first3 = H. | last4 = Reiff | first4 = P. | title = (1989) Effects of the March 1989 solar activity | journal = EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union | volume = 70 | issue = 1479| pages = 1486–1488 }}</ref> which caused the complete collapse of the [[Hydro-Québec]] electric-power grid in Canada, temporarily leaving nine million people without electricity. The possible occurrence of an even more intense storm<ref>Baker, D.N., Balstad, R., Bodeau, J.M., Cameron, E., Fennell, J.E., Fisher, G.M., Forbes, K.F., Kintner, P.M., Leffler, L.G., Lewis, W.S., Reagan, J.B., Small, A.A., Stansell, T.A., Strachan, L.: Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, pp. 1-144, The National Academy Press, Washington, DC (2008)</ref> led to operational standards intended to mitigate induction-hazard risks, while [[reinsurance]] companies commissioned revised [[risk assessments]].<ref>Lloyd's: Emerging Risk Report: Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid, pp. 1--22. Lloyd's of London, London, UK (2013)</ref>

===Geophysical exploration===
Air- and ship-borne [[aeromagnetic survey|magnetic surveys]] can be affected by rapid magnetic field variations during geomagnetic storms. Such storms cause data-interpretation problems because the space weather-related magnetic field changes are similar in magnitude to those of the subsurface crustal magnetic field in the survey area. Accurate geomagnetic storm warnings, including an assessment of storm magnitude and duration, allows for an economic use of survey equipment.

===Geophysics and hydrocarbon production===
For economic and other reasons, oil and gas production often involves [[directional drilling|horizontal drilling]] of well paths many kilometers from a single wellhead. Accuracy requirements are strict, due to target size – reservoirs may only be a few tens to hundreds of meters across – and safety, because of the proximity of other boreholes. The most accurate gyroscopic method is expensive, since it can stop drilling for hours. An alternative is to use a magnetic survey, which enables [[MWD (measurement while drilling)|measurement while drilling (MWD)]]. Near real-time magnetic data can be used to correct drilling direction.<ref>Clark, T.D.G., Clarke, E. Space weather services for the offshore drilling industry, in: Proceedings of the ESA Space Weather Workshop, ESTEC, the Netherlands, 17–19 Dec, 2001, ESA WPP-194, 2001.; Reay et al., 2006</ref><ref>{{cite journal | doi = 10.1016/j.asr.2005.04.082 | volume=37 | title=Large-magnitude geomagnetic disturbances in the North Sea region: Statistics, causes, and forecasting | year=2006 | journal=Advances in Space Research | pages=1169–1174 | last1 = Gleisner | first1 = Hans| issue=6 | bibcode=2006AdSpR..37.1169G }}</ref> Magnetic data and space weather forecasts can help to clarify unknown sources of drilling error.

===Terrestrial weather===
The amount of energy entering the troposphere and stratosphere from space weather phenomena is trivial compared to the solar [[insolation]] in the visible and infrared portions of the solar electromagnetic spectrum. Although some linkage between the 11-year sunspot cycle and the Earth's [[climate]] has been claimed.,<ref>Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate, K. Lassen and E. Friis-Christensen, 57, 8, pp. 835–845, 1995</ref> this has never been verified. For example, the [[Maunder minimum]], a 70-year period almost devoid of sunspots, has often been suggested to be correlated to a cooler climate, but these correlations have disappeared after deeper studies. The suggested link from changes in cosmic-ray flux causing changes in the amount of cloud formation<ref>What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection?, E. Friis-Christensen and H. Svensmark, Adv. Space Res., 20, 4/5, pp. 913–921, 1997.</ref> did not survive scientific tests. Another suggestion, that variations in the [[extreme ultraviolet]] (EUV) flux subtly influence existing drivers of the climate and tip the balance between [[El Niño]]/[[La Niña]] events<ref>Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing, Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.; Matthes, K.; Sassi, F.; van Loon, H., ''Science'', 325, 5944, 1114-18, 28 Aug. 2009</ref> collapsed when new research showed this was not possible. As such, a linkage between space weather and the climate has not been demonstrated.

In addition, a link has been suggested between high energy charged particles (such as [[Solar Energetic Particle|SEPs]] and [[cosmic rays]]) and [[cloud formation]]. This is because charged particles interact with the atmosphere to produce [[Volatile (astrogeology)|volatiles]] which then condense, creating [[cloud seeds]].<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1038/news.2011.504| issn = 1476-4687| last = Brumfiel| first = Geoff| title = Cloud formation may be linked to cosmic rays| journal = Nature| date = 2011-08-24}}</ref> This is a topic of ongoing research at [[CERN]], where experiments test the effect of high-energy charged particles on atmosphere.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://home.cern/news/news/experiments/cosmic-rays-clouds|publisher=CERN|last=Lopes|first=Ana|year=2019|title=Cloud formation may be linked to cosmic rays}}</ref> If proven, this may suggest a link between space weather (in the form of [[solar particle event]]s) and cloud formation.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2333133.stm|last=Kirby|first=Alex|publisher=BBC|year=2002|title=Cosmic rays 'linked to clouds'}}</ref>

Most recently, a statistical connection has been reported between the occurrence of heavy [[floods]] and the arrivals of high-speed [[solar wind]] streams (HSSs). The enhanced [[auroral]] energy deposition during HSSs is suggested as a mechanism for the generation of downward propagating [[atmospheric]] [[gravity waves]] (AGWs). As AGWs reach lower [[atmosphere]], they may excite the conditional [[instability]] in the [[troposphere]], thus leading to excessive rainfall.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.3389/fspas.2023.1359458| last1 = Barta| first1 = Veronika| last2 = Chum |first2 = Jaroslav| last3 = Liu |first3 = Han-Li| last4 = Pokhotelov |first4 = Dimitry | last5 = Stober |first5 = Gunter |title = Editorial for the Special Issue: Vertical Coupling in the Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere System| journal = Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences| date = 2024-01-16| volume = 10| doi-access = free}}</ref>

==Observation==
[[Image:Aurora-SpaceShuttle-EO.jpg|thumb|300px|right|[[aurora (astronomy)|Aurora australis]] observed from {{OV|103}}, May 1991]]
Observation of space weather is done both for scientific research and applications. Scientific observation has evolved with the state of knowledge, while application-related observation expanded with the ability to exploit such data.

===Ground-based===
Space weather is monitored at ground level by observing changes in the Earth's magnetic field over periods of seconds to days, by observing the surface of the Sun, and by observing radio noise created in the Sun's atmosphere.

The [[Wolf number|Sunspot Number]] (SSN) is the number of [[sunspot]]s on the Sun's photosphere in visible light on the side of the Sun visible to an Earth observer. The number and total area of sunspots are related to the brightness of the Sun in the [[extreme ultraviolet|EUV]] and X-ray portions of the [[sunlight|solar spectrum]] and to solar activity such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections<!-- (CMEs) -->.

The 10.7&nbsp;cm radio flux (F10.7) is a measurement of RF emissions from the Sun and is roughly correlated with the solar EUV flux. Since this RF emission is easily obtained from the ground and EUV flux is not, this value has been measured and disseminated continuously since 1947. The world standard measurements are made by the [[Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory]] at Penticton, BC, Canada and reported once a day at local noon<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/radio/7day_rad.txt |title=Last 7 days of solar radio flux |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141006071524/http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/radio/7day_rad.txt |archive-date=October 6, 2014 }}</ref> in solar flux units (10<sup>−22</sup>W·m<sup>−2</sup>·Hz<sup>−1</sup>). F10.7 is archived by the National Geophysical Data Center.<ref>[ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_RADIO/FLUX/  NOAA/NGDC F10.7 archive]{{dead link|date=May 2025|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref>

Fundamental space weather monitoring data are provided by ground-based magnetometers and magnetic observatories. Magnetic storms were first discovered by ground-based measurement of occasional magnetic disturbance. Ground magnetometer data provide real-time situational awareness for postevent analysis. Magnetic observatories have been in continuous operations for decades to centuries, providing data to inform studies of long-term changes in space climatology.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Love, J. J.|year= 2008|title= Magnetic monitoring of Earth and space|journal= Physics Today|volume=61|issue= 6|pages=31–37|url=https://geomag.usgs.gov/downloads/publications/pt_love0208.pdf|doi=10.1063/1.2883907|bibcode=2008PhT....61b..31H}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author=Love, J. J.|year= 2011|author2=Finn, C. A. |title= The USGS Geomagnetism Program and its role in space weather monitoring|journal= Space Weather|volume=9|issue= 7|pages= 07001|doi=10.1029/2011SW000684|url=https://geomag.usgs.gov/downloads/publications/2011SW000684.pdf|bibcode=2011SpWea...9.7001L|doi-access=free}}</ref>

[[Disturbance storm time index<!-- |Dst index -->]] (Dst index) is an estimate of the magnetic field change at the Earth's magnetic equator due to a ring of electric current at and just earthward of the [[geosynchronous orbit]].<ref>{{Cite web|title = Bulletin 40 |first1=Masahisa |last1=SUGIURA |first2=Toyohisa |last2=KAMEI|url = http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/dst2/onDstindex.html|website = wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp|access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref> The index is based on data from four ground-based magnetic observatories between 21° and 33° [[Geomagnetic latitude|magnetic latitude]] during a one-hour period. Stations closer to the magnetic equator are not used due to ionospheric effects. The Dst index is compiled and archived by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.<ref name="kyoto">[http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/wdc/Sec3.html Geomagnetic Data Service] World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto</ref>

[[K-index|Kp/ap]] index: 'a' is an index created from the geomagnetic disturbance at one midlatitude (40° to 50° latitude) geomagnetic observatory during a 3-hour period. 'K' is the quasilogarithmic counterpart of the 'a' index. Kp and ap are the average of K and an over 13 geomagnetic observatories to represent planetary-wide geomagnetic disturbances. The Kp/ap index<ref>[http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/kp-index Helmholtz Centre PotsdamGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences]</ref> indicates both geomagnetic storms and substorms (auroral disturbance). Kp/ap data are available from 1932 onward.

AE index is compiled from geomagnetic disturbances at 12 geomagnetic observatories in and near the auroral zones and is recorded at 1-minute intervals.<ref name="kyoto" /> The public AE index is available with a lag of two to three days that limits its utility for space weather applications. The AE index indicates the intensity of geomagnetic substorms except during a major geomagnetic storm when the auroral zones expand equatorward from the observatories.

Radio noise bursts are reported by the Radio Solar Telescope Network to the U.S. Air Force and to NOAA. The radio bursts are associated with solar flare plasma that interacts with the ambient solar atmosphere.

The Sun's photosphere is observed continuously<ref>[http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/solar_sites.html List of solar observatories] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110410190312/http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/solar_sites.html |date=2011-04-10 }}</ref> for activity that can be the precursors to solar flares and CMEs. The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG)<ref>[http://gong.nso.org Global Oscillation Network Group home page]</ref> project monitors both the surface and the interior of the Sun by using [[helioseismology]], the study of sound waves propagating through the Sun and observed as ripples on the solar surface. GONG can detect sunspot groups on the far side of the Sun. This ability has recently been verified by visual observations from the ''[[STEREO]]'' spacecraft.

[[Neutron monitor]]s on the ground indirectly monitor cosmic rays from the Sun and galactic sources. When cosmic rays interact with the atmosphere, atomic interactions occur that cause a shower of lower-energy particles to descend into the atmosphere and to ground level. The presence of cosmic rays in the near-Earth space environment can be detected by monitoring high-energy neutrons at ground level. Small fluxes of cosmic rays are present continuously. Large fluxes are produced by the Sun during events related to energetic solar flares.

[[Total Electron Content]] (TEC) is a measure of the ionosphere over a given location. TEC is the number of electrons in a column one meter square from the base of the ionosphere (around 90&nbsp;km altitude) to the top of the ionosphere (around 1000&nbsp;km altitude). Many TEC measurements are made by monitoring the two frequencies transmitted by [[Global Positioning System|GPS]] spacecraft. Presently, GPS TEC is monitored and distributed in real time from more than 360 stations maintained by agencies in many countries.

Geoeffectiveness is a measure of how strongly space weather magnetic fields, such as coronal mass ejections, couple with the Earth's magnetic field. This is determined by the direction of the magnetic field held within the plasma that originates from the Sun. New techniques measuring [[Faraday effect|Faraday rotation]] in radio waves are in development to measure field direction.<ref>{{cite web|title=Under Sunveillance|url=http://www.physics.org/featuredetail.asp?id=73|publisher=physics.org|access-date=12 September 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Solar-Heliospheric-Ionospheric Science|url=http://www.haystack.mit.edu/mwa/Science%20Goal/Solar-Heliospheric-Ionospheric%20Science/solar.html|publisher=MIT Haystack Observatory|access-date=12 September 2012}}</ref>

===Satellite-based===
A host of research spacecraft have explored space weather.<ref name="PfaffBorovsky1998">{{cite book|first1=Robert F. |last1=Pfaff|first2=Joseph E. |last2=Borovsky|first3=David T. |last3=Young|title=Measurement Techniques in Space Plasmas: Particles|url={{google books |plainurl=y |id=3pBNNEykLIIC}}|date=4 February 1998|publisher=American Geophysical Union|isbn=978-0-87590-085-8}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|title = The Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO)|journal = Solar Physics|date = 1995-12-01|issn = 0038-0938|pages = 357–402|volume = 162|issue = 1–2|doi = 10.1007/BF00733434|first1 = G. E.|last1 = Brueckner|first2 = R. A.|last2 = Howard|first3 = M. J.|last3 = Koomen|first4 = C. M.|last4 = Korendyke|first5 = D. J.|last5 = Michels|first6 = J. D.|last6 = Moses|first7 = D. G.|last7 = Socker|first8 = K. P.|last8 = Dere|first9 = P. L.|last9 = Lamy|bibcode = 1995SoPh..162..357B|s2cid = 121739815}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|title = The NOAA Goes-12 Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) 1. Instrument, Operations, and Data|journal = Solar Physics|date = 2005-02-01|issn = 0038-0938|pages = 255–281|volume = 226|issue = 2|doi = 10.1007/s11207-005-7416-x|first1 = S. M.|last1 = Hill|first2 = V. J.|last2 = Pizzo|first3 = C. C.|last3 = Balch|first4 = D. A.|last4 = Biesecker|first5 = P.|last5 = Bornmann|first6 = E.|last6 = Hildner|first7 = L. D.|last7 = Lewis|first8 = R. N.|last8 = Grubb|first9 = M. P.|last9 = Husler|bibcode = 2005SoPh..226..255H|s2cid = 119351649|url = https://zenodo.org/record/1232846}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|publisher = Springer Berlin Heidelberg|date = 2010-01-01|isbn = 978-3-540-70606-9|pages = 226–241|series = Landolt-Börnstein - Group VI Astronomy and Astrophysics|first = Klaus|last = Wilhelm|editor-first = J. E.|editor-last = Trümper|doi = 10.1007/978-3-540-70607-6_11|title = Instruments and Methods|volume = 4A|chapter = 2.3 Solar short-wavelength telescopes and spectrometers on space missions}}</ref> The [[Orbiting Geophysical Observatory]] series were among the first spacecraft with the mission of analyzing the space environment. Recent spacecraft include the NASA-ESA Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) pair of spacecraft launched in 2006 into solar orbit and the [[Van Allen Probes]], launched in 2012 into a highly [[Elliptic orbit|elliptical]] Earth orbit. The two STEREO spacecraft drift away from the Earth by about 22° per year, one leading and the other trailing the Earth in its orbit. Together they compile information about the solar surface and atmosphere in three dimensions. The Van Allen probes record detailed information about the radiation belts, geomagnetic storms, and the relationship between the two.

Some spacecraft with other primary missions have carried auxiliary instruments for solar observation. Among the earliest such spacecraft were the [[Applications Technology Satellite]]<ref>{{Cite web|title = NASA - ATS|url = http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/missions/ats.html|website = www.nasa.gov|access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref> (ATS) series at GEO that were precursors to the modern [[Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite]] (GOES) weather satellite and many communication satellites. The ATS spacecraft carried environmental particle sensors as auxiliary payloads and had their navigational magnetic field sensor used for sensing the environment.

Many of the early instruments were research spacecraft that were re-purposed for space weather applications. One of the first of these was the IMP-8 (Interplanetary Monitoring Platform).<ref>{{Cite web|title = IMP-8 Project Information|url = http://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/imp8/project.html|website = spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov|access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref> It orbited the Earth at 35 Earth radii and observed the solar wind for two-thirds of its 12-day orbits from 1973 to 2006. Since the solar wind carries disturbances that affect the magnetosphere and ionosphere, IMP-8 demonstrated the utility of continuous solar wind monitoring. IMP-8 was followed by [[International Cometary Explorer|ISEE-3]], which was placed near the {{L1}} Sun-Earth [[Lagrangian point]], 235 Earth radii above the surface (about 1.5&nbsp;million km, or 924,000 miles) and continuously monitored the solar wind from 1978 to 1982. The next spacecraft to monitor the solar wind at the {{L1}} point was [[WIND (spacecraft)|WIND]] from 1994 to 1998. After April 1998, the WIND spacecraft orbit was changed to circle the Earth and occasionally pass the {{L1}} point. The NASA [[Advanced Composition Explorer]] <!-- (ACE) --> has monitored the solar wind at the {{L1}} point from 1997 to present.

In addition to monitoring the solar wind, monitoring the Sun is important to space weather. Because the solar EUV cannot be monitored from the ground, the joint [[NASA]]-[[ESA]] [[Solar and Heliospheric Observatory]] (SOHO) spacecraft was launched and has provided solar EUV images beginning in 1995. SOHO is a main source of near-real time solar data for both research and space weather prediction and inspired the [[STEREO]] mission. The [[Yohkoh]] spacecraft at LEO observed the Sun from 1991 to 2001 in the X-ray portion of the solar spectrum and was useful for both research and space weather prediction. Data from Yohkoh inspired the [[Solar X-ray Imager]] on GOES.

[[File:ExtremeEvent 19891018-00h 19891031-24h.jpg|thumb|right|320px|GOES-7 monitors space weather conditions during the October 1989 solar activity resulted in a Forbush Decrease, [[ground level enhancement]]s, and many satellite anomalies.<ref name="Extreme Space Weather Events"/>]]

Spacecraft with instruments whose primary purpose is to provide data for space weather predictions and applications include the [[Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite]] (GOES) series of spacecraft, the [[Polar Operational Environmental Satellites|POES]] series, the [[Defense Meteorological Satellite Program|DMSP]] series, and the [[Meteosat]] series. The GOES spacecraft have carried an X-ray sensor (XRS) which measures the flux from the whole solar disk in two bands – 0.05 to 0.4&nbsp;nm and 0.1 to 0.8&nbsp;nm – since 1974, an X-ray imager (SXI) since 2004, a magnetometer which measures the distortions of the Earth's magnetic field due to space weather, a whole disk [[extreme ultraviolet|EUV]] sensor since 2004, and particle sensors (EPS/HEPAD) which measure ions and electrons in the energy range of 50 keV to 500 MeV. Starting sometime after 2015, the GOES-R generation of GOES spacecraft will replace the SXI with a solar EUV image (SUVI) similar to the one on [[Solar and Heliospheric Observatory|SOHO]] and [[STEREO]] and the particle sensor will be augmented with a component to extend the energy range down to 30&nbsp;eV.

The [[Deep Space Climate Observatory]] (DSCOVR) satellite is a [[NOAA]] Earth observation and space weather satellite that launched in February 2015. Among its features is advance warning of coronal mass ejections.<ref>{{cite news | url = http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nasa-set-to-launch-satellite-t/40450948 | title = NOAA's DSCOVR Satellite Launch Attempt Delayed by Technical Issues | first = Mark | last = Leberfinger | work = AccuWeather.com | publisher = AccuWeather, Inc. | date = February 9, 2015}}</ref>

==Models==
Space weather models are simulations of the space weather environment. Models use sets of mathematical equations to describe physical processes.

These models take a limited data set and attempt to describe all or part of the space weather environment in or to predict how weather evolves over time. Early models were heuristic; i.e''., '' they did not directly employ physics. These models take less resources than their more sophisticated descendants.

Later models use physics to account for as many phenomena as possible. No model can yet reliably predict the environment from the surface of the Sun to the bottom of the Earth's ionosphere. Space weather models differ from meteorological models in that the amount of input is vastly smaller.

A significant portion of space weather model research and development in the past two decades has been done as part of the [[outer space#Geospace|Geospace]] Environmental Model (GEM) program of the [[National Science Foundation]]. The two major modeling centers are the Center for Space Environment Modeling (CSEM)<ref>{{Cite web|title = CSEM - Center for Space Environment Modeling|url = http://csem.engin.umich.edu/|website = csem.engin.umich.edu|access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref> and the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM).<ref>{{Cite web|title = CISM // Home|url = http://www.bu.edu/cism/|website = www.bu.edu|access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref> The [[Community Coordinated Modeling Center]]<ref>{{Cite web|url = http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/|title = NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center}}</ref> (CCMC) at the NASA [[Goddard Space Flight Center]] is a facility for coordinating the development and testing of research models, for improving and preparing models for use in space weather prediction and application.<ref>{{cite journal | doi = 10.1029/2011SW000663 | volume=9 | title=Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil Cone Model Transitions to Operations | year=2011 | journal=Space Weather | last1 = Parsons | first1 = Annette| issue=3 | article-number=2011SW000663 | pages=n/a | bibcode=2011SpWea...9.3004P | s2cid=120992652 | url=https://zenodo.org/record/1231301 | doi-access=free }}</ref>

Modeling techniques include (a) [[magnetohydrodynamics]], in which the environment is treated as a fluid, (b) particle in cell, in which non-fluid interactions are handled within a cell and then cells are connected to describe the environment, (c) first principles, in which physical processes are in balance (or equilibrium) with one another, (d) semi-static modeling, in which a statistical or empirical relationship is described, or a combination of multiple methods.

== Commercial space weather development ==
During the first decade of the 21st Century, a commercial sector emerged that engaged in space weather, serving agency, academia, commercial and consumer sectors.<ref>National Academies Press, "Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society," Committee on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics); Space Studies Board; Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board; Division of Earth and Physical Sciences; National Research Council {{ISBN|978-0-309-16428-3}}, 2012</ref> Space weather providers are typically smaller companies, or small divisions within a larger company, that provide space weather data, models, derivative products and service distribution.{{Citation needed|date=December 2019}}

The commercial sector includes scientific and engineering researchers as well as users. Activities are primarily directed toward the impacts of space weather upon technology. These include, for example:

* Atmospheric drag on LEO satellites caused by energy inputs into the thermosphere from solar UV, FUV, [[Lyman series|Lyman-alpha]], [[EUV]], [[Extreme ultraviolet|XUV]], X-ray, and [[gamma ray]] photons as well as by charged particle precipitation and [[Joule heating]] at high latitudes;{{Citation needed|date=December 2019}} 
* Surface and internal charging from increased energetic particle fluxes, leading to effects such as discharges, single event upsets and latch-up, on LEO to GEO satellites;{{Citation needed|date=December 2019}} 
* Disrupted GPS signals caused by ionospheric scintillation leading to increased uncertainty in navigation systems such as aviation's [[Wide Area Augmentation System]] (WAAS);{{Citation needed|date=December 2019}}
* Lost HF, UHF and L-band radio communications due to ionosphere scintillation, solar flares and geomagnetic storms; 
* Increased radiation to human tissue and avionics from [[galactic cosmic rays]] SEP, especially during large solar flares, and possibly bremsstrahlung gamma-rays produced by precipitating radiation belt energetic electrons at altitudes above 8&nbsp;km;<ref>Tobiska, et al., Advances in atmospheric radiation measurements and modeling needed to improve international air safety, Space Weather Journal, 2015</ref><ref>{{cite journal | url=https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001843 | doi=10.1029/2018SW001843 | title=Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment Based on Model and Measurement Databases | date=2018 | last1=Tobiska | first1=W. Kent | last2=Didkovsky | first2=Leonid | last3=Judge | first3=Kevin | last4=Weiman | first4=Seth | last5=Bouwer | first5=Dave | last6=Bailey | first6=Justin | last7=Atwell | first7=Bill | last8=Maskrey | first8=Molly | last9=Mertens | first9=Chris | last10=Zheng | first10=Yihua | last11=Shea | first11=Margaret | last12=Smart | first12=Don | last13=Gersey | first13=Brad | last14=Wilkins | first14=Richard | last15=Bell | first15=Duane | last16=Gardner | first16=Larry | last17=Fuschino | first17=Robert | journal=Space Weather | volume=16 | issue=10 | pages=1523–1538 | pmid=30686943 | pmc=6333164 | bibcode=2018SpWea..16.1523T }}</ref>
* Increased inaccuracy in surveying and oil/gas exploration that uses the Earth's main magnetic field when it is disturbed by geomagnetic storms;
* Loss of power transmission from GIC surges in the electrical power grid and transformer shutdowns during large geomagnetic storms. 
Many of these disturbances result in societal impacts that account for a significant part of the national GDP.<ref name="oughton1">{{cite journal |last1=Oughton |first1=Edward |last2=Skelton |first2=Andrew |last3=Horne |first3=Richard |last4=Thomson |first4=Alan |last5=Gaunt |first5=Charles |title=Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure |journal=  Space Weather|date=2017 |volume=15 |issue=1 |pages=65–83 |doi=10.1002/2016SW001491 |bibcode=2017SpWea..15...65O |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="oughton2">{{cite journal |last1=Oughton |first1=Edward |last2=Hapgood |first2=Mike |last3=Richardson |first3=Gemma |last4=Beggan |first4=Ciaran |last5=Thomson |first5=Alan |title=A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom |journal=  Risk Analysis|date=2019 |volume=39 |issue=5 |pages=1022–1043 |doi=10.1111/risa.13229 |pmid=30408211 |pmc=6936226 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2019RiskA..39.1022O }}</ref>

The concept of incentivizing commercial space weather was first suggested by the idea of a Space Weather Economic Innovation Zone discussed by the American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA) in 2015. The establishment of this economic innovation zone would encourage expanded economic activity developing applications to manage the risks space weather and would encourage broader research activities related to space weather by universities. It could encourage U.S. business investment in space weather services and products. It promoted the support of U.S. business innovation in space weather services and products by requiring U.S. government purchases of U.S. built commercial hardware, software, and associated products and services where no suitable government capability pre-exists. It also promoted U.S. built commercial hardware, software, and associated products and services sales to international partners. designate U.S. built commercial hardware, services, and products as “Space Weather Economic Innovation Zone” activities; Finally, it recommended that U.S. built commercial hardware, services, and products be tracked as Space Weather Economic Innovation Zone contributions within agency reports. In 2015 the U.S. Congress bill HR1561 provided groundwork where social and environmental impacts from a Space Weather Economic Innovation Zone could be far-reaching. In 2016, the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (S. 2817) was introduced to build on that legacy. Later, in 2017-2018 the HR3086 Bill took these concepts, included the breadth of material from parallel agency studies as part of the OSTP-sponsored Space Weather Action Program (SWAP),<ref>National Science and Technology Council, Office of Science and Technology Policy, The White House, National Space Weather Action Plan, October 2015</ref> and with bicameral and bipartisan support the 116th Congress (2019) is considering passage of the Space Weather Coordination Act (S141, 115th Congress).{{Citation needed|date=December 2019}}

==Notable events==
{{Main|List of solar storms}}

* On December 21, 1806, [[Alexander von Humboldt]] observed that his compass had become erratic during a bright auroral event.<ref>{{cite web| last =Russell| first =Randy| title =Geomagnetic Storms| work =Windows to the Universe| publisher =National Earth Science Teachers Association| date =March 29, 2010| url =http://www.windows2universe.org/glossary/geomagnetic_storms.html| access-date = 23 February 2013}}</ref>
* The [[Solar storm of 1859]] (Carrington Event) caused widespread disruption of telegraph service.
* The [[Aurora of November 17, 1882]] disrupted telegraph service.
* The [[May 1921 geomagnetic storm]],<ref>{{cite journal | doi = 10.1016/S1364-6826(00)00174-7 | volume=63 | title=Low-latitude auroras: the magnetic storm of 14–15 May 1921 | year=2001 | journal=Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics | pages=523–535 | last1 = Silverman | first1 = S.M| issue=5 | bibcode=2001JASTP..63..523S | url=http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=usafresearch }}</ref> one of the largest geomagnetic storms disrupted telegraph service and damaged electrical equipment worldwide.
* The [[Solar storm of August 1972]], a large SEP event occurred. If astronauts had been in space at the time, the dose could have been life-threatening.<ref>{{Cite web|title = Solar Sentinels - NASA Science|url = https://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/01sep_sentinels.htm|website = science.nasa.gov|access-date = 2015-07-24|url-status = dead|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20090930104605/http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/01sep_sentinels.htm|archive-date = 2009-09-30}}</ref> 
* The [[March 1989 geomagnetic storm]] included multiple space weather effects: SEP, CME, Forbush decrease, ground level enhancement, geomagnetic storm, etc..
* The 2000 [[Bastille Day event]] coincided with exceptionally bright aurora.
* April 21, 2002, the [[Nozomi (probe)|Nozomi]] Mars Probe was hit by a large SEP event that caused large-scale failure. The mission, which was already about 3 years behind schedule, was abandoned in December 2003.<ref>{{Cite web|title = Solar Flare Shuts Down Nozomi Mars Probe's Communication System {{!}} SpaceRef - Your Space Reference|url = http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=454|website = www.spaceref.com| date=24 May 2002 |access-date = 2015-07-24}}</ref>
* The [[2003 Halloween solar storms]], a series of coronal mass ejections and solar flares in late October and early November 2003 with associated impacts.

== See also ==
{{cmn|
* [[Atmospheric physics]]
* [[Atmospheric science]]
* [[Earth's magnetic field]]
* [[Exometeorology]]
* [[Heliosphere]]
* [[Magnetic cloud]]
* [[Magnetosheath]]
* [[Meteorology]]
* [[Plasma physics]]
* [[Upper-atmospheric lightning]]
* [[Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring]]
* [[Solar physics]]
* [[Space climate]]
* [[Space hurricane]]
* [[Space tornado]]
* [[Space exploration]]
* [[Space radiation]]
* [[Space weathering]]
* [[Sudden ionospheric disturbance]]
}}

== Citations ==
{{Reflist|30em}}

== General bibliography ==
* Daglis, Ioannis A.: ''Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure.'' Springer, Dordrecht 2005, {{ISBN|1-4020-2748-6}}.
* Lilensten, Jean, and Jean Bornarel, ''Space Weather, Environment and Societies'', Springer, {{ISBN|978-1-4020-4331-4}}.
* Moldwin, Mark: ''An Introduction to Space Weather.'' Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge 2008, {{ISBN|978-0-521-86149-6}}.
* Schwenn, Rainer, ''Space Weather'', [http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/ Living Reviews in Solar Physics] '''3''', (2006), 2, [http://www.livingreviews.org/lrsp-2006-2 online article].

== Further reading ==
* Bothmer, V.; Daglis, I., 2006, ''Space Weather: Physics and Effects'', Springer-Verlag New York, {{ISBN|3-642-06289-X}}.
* Carlowicz, M. J., and R. E. Lopez, 2002, ''Storms from the Sun'', Joseph Henry Press, Washington DC, {{ISBN|0-309-07642-0}}.
* Clark, T. D. G. and E. Clarke, 2001. ''Space weather services for the offshore drilling industry''. ''In Space Weather Workshop: Looking Towards a Future European Space Weather Programme''. ESTEC, ESA WPP-194.
* Daglis, I. A. (Editor), 2001, ''Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards'', Springer-Verlag New York, {{ISBN|1-4020-0031-6}}.
* Freeman, John W., 2001, ''Storms in Space'', Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, {{ISBN|0-521-66038-6}}.
* Gombosi, Tamas I., Houghton, John T., and Dessler, Alexander J., (Editors), 2006, ''Physics of the Space Environment'', Cambridge University Press, {{ISBN|978-0-521-60768-1}}.
* Odenwald, S. 2006, ''The 23rd Cycle;Learning to live with a stormy star'', Columbia University Press, {{ISBN|0-231-12078-8}}.
* Reay, S. J., W. Allen, O. Baillie, J. Bowe, E. Clarke, V. Lesur, S. Macmillan, 2005. ''Space weather effects on drilling accuracy in the North Sea''. Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 23, pp.&nbsp;3081–3088.
* Ruffenach, A., 2018, "Enabling Resilient UK Energy Infrastructure: Natural Hazard Characterisation Technical Volumes and Case Studies, Volume 10 - Space Weather"; IMechE, IChemE.
* Song, P., Singer, H., and [[George Siscoe|Siscoe, G.]], (Editors), 2001, ''Space Weather (Geophysical Monograph)'', Union, Washington, D.C., {{ISBN|0-87590-984-1}}.
* {{Cite journal |last = Strong |first = Keith |author2 = J. Saba |author3 = T. Kucera |title = Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star |journal = Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. |volume = 93 |issue = 9 |pages = 1327–35 |date = 2012 |doi = 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00179.1 |bibcode = 2012BAMS...93.1327S |hdl = 2060/20120002541 |s2cid = 73637606 |hdl-access = free }}
* {{Cite journal |last = Strong |first = Keith |author2 = J. T. Schmelz |author3 = J. L. R. Saba |author4 = T. A. Kucera |title = Understanding Space Weather: Part II: The Violent Sun 
|journal = Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. |volume = 98 |issue = 11 |pages = 2387–96 |date = 2017 |doi = 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0191.1 |bibcode = 2017BAMS...98.2387S }}
* {{Cite journal |last = Strong |first = Keith |author2 = N. Viall |author3 = J. Schmelz |author4 = J. Saba |title = Understanding Space Weather: The Sun's Domain |journal = Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. |volume = 98|issue = 12|pages = 2593|doi = 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0204.1 |bibcode = 2017BAMS...98.2593S|year = 2017 }}

==External links==
{{Commons category|Space meteorology}}

===Real-time space weather forecast===
* {{Cite web|title = Current Space Weather Conditions|url = http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products-and-data|website = NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center|access-date = 2017-11-26}}
* {{Cite web|title = Space Weather Canada|url = http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/index-eng.php|website = www.spaceweather.gc.ca|access-date = 2015-07-24}}
* {{Cite web|title = Space Environment Technologies - Space Weather Now|url = http://www.spacewx.com/Space_Weather_Now.html|website = www.spacewx.com|access-date = 2015-07-24}}
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20120417113312/http://sw22.spaceweather.usu.edu/index.html Utah State Univ SWC Real-time GAIM Ionosphere – (real-time model of ionosphere)]
* {{Cite web|title = Current sunspot cycle activity, space weather, solar storm and geomagnetic conditions and radio propagation forecasts|url = http://SunSpotWatch.com/|website = SunSpotWatch.com|access-date = 2017-06-27}} Space Weather and Radio Propagation. Live and historical data and images with a perspective on how it affects [[radio propagation]]
* {{Cite web|title = SolarSoft Latest Events|url = http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/|website = www.lmsal.com|access-date = 2015-07-24}} Latest Data from STEREO, HINODE and SDO (Large bandwidth)
* {{Cite web|title = SpaceWeather.com – News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids|url = http://www.spaceweather.com/|website = www.spaceweather.com|access-date = 2015-07-24}}
* {{Cite web|title = Geomagnetic Hazard and Space Weather – British Geological Survey 1998–2015|url = http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research/space_weather/spweather.html|website = www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk|access-date = 2015-07-24}}

===Other links===
* [http://www.haystack.mit.edu/edu/poa/swfx/index.html Space Weather FX] – Video podcast series on Space Weather from MIT Haystack Observatory
* [http://esa-spaceweather.net/ ESA's Space Weather Site]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20080719143734/http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/swenet/ Space Weather European Network] – ([[European Space Agency|ESA]])
* {{Cite web|title = American Commercial Space Weather Association|url = http://www.acswa.us/|website = www.acswa.us|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER)|url = http://www.aer.com|website = www.aer.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates|url = http://astraspace.net|website = ASTRA – Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Carmel Research Center|url = http://www.carmelresearchcenter.com|website = www.carmelresearchcenter.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Computational Physics, Incorporated (CPI)|url = http://www.cpi.com|website = www.cpi.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Exploration Physics International, Inc. (EXPI)|url = http://www.expi.com|website = www.expi.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Flare Forecast|url = http://www.flareforecast.com|website = www.flareforecast.com|access-date = 2015-07-25|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20150308115203/http://www.flareforecast.com/|archive-date = 2015-03-08|url-status = dead}}
* {{Cite web|title = GeoOptics Inc|url = http://geooptics.com|website = geooptics.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = PlanetiQ {{!}} Critical Data For A Smarter Planet|url = http://www.planetiq.com|website = www.planetiq.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Predictive Science Inc. – Home|url = http://www.predsci.com|website = www.predsci.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* [http://q-upnow.com Q-Up Now (Q-up)]
* {{Cite web|title = Scientific Solutions|url = http://www.sci-sol.com|website = www.sci-sol.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Space Environment Corporation|url = http://spacenv.com|website = spacenv.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Space Environment Technologies – Home Page|url = http://spacewx.com|website = spacewx.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Space Services Holdings, Inc. (SSH)|url = http://spaceservicesinc.com|website = space-services|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20181226205531/http://swftt.net/ Space Weather For Today and Tomorrow (SWFTT)]
* {{Cite web|title = Consulting on Solar Storms and EMP's for The Power Grid|url = http://solarstormconsultant.com|website = solarstormconsultant.com|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Space Weather Center at Utah State University |url = http://spaceweather.usu.edu|website = spaceweather.usu.edu|access-date = 2015-07-25}}
* {{Cite web|title = Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)|url = http://www.sciesmex.unam.mx|website = www.sciesmex.unam.mx|access-date = 2015-11-27}}
* [http://space-weather.ru/index.php?page=home-en Space Weather Today] – Space Weather from Russian Institute for Applied Geophysics

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[[Category:1950s neologisms]]
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[[Category:Radio frequency propagation]]
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