View source for Volcanic winter

{{short description|Temperature anomaly event caused by a volcanic eruption}}
[[File:Volcanic injection.svg|thumb|The conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid, which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols.]]
A '''volcanic winter''' is a reduction in global temperatures caused by droplets of [[sulfuric acid]] obscuring the [[Sun]] and raising [[Earth]]'s [[albedo]] (increasing the reflection of solar radiation) after a large, sulfur-rich, particularly explosive [[volcano|volcanic eruption]]. Climate effects are primarily dependent upon the amount of injection of [[Sulfur dioxide|SO<sub>2</sub>]] and [[Hydrogen sulfide|H<sub>2</sub>S]] into the [[stratosphere]] where they react with [[Hydroxide|OH]] and H<sub>2</sub>O to form H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> on a timescale of a week, and the resulting H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> aerosols produce the dominant radiative effect. Volcanic stratospheric aerosols cool the surface by [[Backscatter|reflecting solar radiation]] and warm the stratosphere by absorbing terrestrial radiation for several years. Moreover, the cooling trend can be further extended by atmosphere–ice–ocean feedback mechanisms. These feedbacks can continue to maintain the cool climate long after the volcanic aerosols have dissipated.

== Physical process ==
An explosive volcanic eruption releases [[magma]] materials in the form of [[volcanic ash]] and gases into the atmosphere. While most volcanic ash settles to the ground within a few weeks after the eruption, impacting only the local area for a short duration, the emitted SO<sub>2</sub> can lead to the formation of H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> aerosols in the stratosphere.{{Sfn|Robock|2000|p=193}}{{Sfn|Cole‐Dai|2010|p=825}} These aerosols can circle the hemisphere of the eruption source in a matter of weeks and persist with an [[E-folding|''e''-folding decay time]] of about a year. As a result, they have a radiative impact that can last for several years.{{Sfn|Robock|2000|p=214}}

The subsequent dispersal of a volcanic cloud in the stratosphere and its impact on climate are strongly influenced by several factors, including the season of the eruption,{{Sfn|Iacovino|Ju-Song|Sisson|Lowenstern|2016|p=8}} the [[latitude]] of the source volcano,{{Sfn|Toohey|Krüger|Schmidt|Timmreck|2019|p=100}} and the injection height.{{Sfn|Cole‐Dai|2010|pp=825-826}} If the SO<sub>2</sub> injection height remains confined to the troposphere, the resulting H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> aerosols have a residence time of only a few days due to efficient removal through precipitation.{{Sfn|Cole‐Dai|2010|pp=825-826}} The lifetime of H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> aerosols resulting from extratropical eruptions is shorter compared to those from tropical eruptions, due to a longer transport path from the tropics to removal across the mid- or high-latitude [[tropopause]], but extratropical eruptions strengthens the hemispheric climate impact by confining the aerosol to a single hemisphere.{{Sfn|Toohey|Krüger|Schmidt|Timmreck|2019|p=100}} Injections in the winter are also much less radiatively efficient than injections during the summer for high-latitude volcanic eruptions, when the removal of stratospheric aerosols in polar regions is enhanced.{{Sfn|Iacovino|Ju-Song|Sisson|Lowenstern|2016|p=8}}
[[File:Edvard Munch, 1893, The Scream, oil, tempera and pastel on cardboard, 91 x 73 cm, National Gallery of Norway.jpg|thumb|It is speculated that [[The Scream|Munch's famous painting]] was inspired by the red volcanic aerosol cloud over Oslo produced by the 1892 Awu eruption]]

The sulfate aerosol interacts strongly with [[Solar irradiance|solar radiation]] through [[scattering]], giving rise to remarkable [[List of atmospheric optical phenomena|atmospheric optical phenomena]] in the stratosphere. These phenomena include [[Global dimming|solar dimming]], [[Corona (optical phenomenon)|coronae]] or [[Bishop's Ring|Bishop's rings]], peculiar twilight coloration, and dark total [[lunar eclipse]]s.{{Sfn|Robock|2000|pp=194-197}}{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Oppenheimer|Lavigne|2023|p=90}} Historical records that documented these atmospheric events are indications of volcanic winters and date back to periods preceding the [[Common Era]].{{Sfn|Baillie|1991|pp=238-242}}

Surface temperature observations following historic eruptions show that there is no correlation between eruption size, as represented by the [[Volcanic explosivity index|VEI]] or eruption volume, and the severity of the climate cooling. This is because eruption size does not correlate with the amount of SO<sub>2</sub> emitted.{{Sfn|Schmidt|Black|2022|p=628}}

=== Long-term positive feedback ===
It has been proposed that the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions can extend beyond the initial several years, lasting for decades to possibly even millennia. This prolonged impact is hypothesized to be a result of positive feedback mechanisms involving ice and ocean dynamics, even after the H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> aerosols have dissipated.{{Sfn|Robock|2000|p=209}}{{Sfn|Zhong|Miller|Otto-Bliesner|Holland|2011|p=2373}}{{Sfn|Baldini|Brown|McElwaine|2015|p=1}}

During the first few years following a volcanic eruption, the presence of H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> aerosols can induce a significant cooling effect. This cooling can lead to a widespread lowering of [[Snow line|snowline]], enabling the rapid expansion of [[sea ice]], [[ice cap]]s and [[Glacier|continental glacier]]. As a result, [[ocean temperature]]s decrease, and surface albedo increases, further reinforcing the expansion of sea ice, ice caps, and glacier. These processes create a strong positive feedback loop, allowing the cooling trend to persist over centennial-scale or even longer periods of time.{{Sfn|Zhong|Miller|Otto-Bliesner|Holland|2011|p=2373}}

It has been proposed that a cluster of closely spaced, large volcanic eruptions triggered or amplified the [[Little Ice Age]],{{Sfn|Miller|Geirsdóttir|Zhong|Larsen|2012|p=1}} [[Late Antique Little Ice Age]],{{Sfn|Büntgen|Myglan|Ljungqvist|McCormick|2016|p=1}} [[stadial]]s,{{Sfn|Bay|Bramall|Price|2004|pp=6344-6345}} [[Younger Dryas]],{{Sfn|Baldini|Brown|Mawdsley|5=2018|pp=974-977}} [[Heinrich event]]s,{{Sfn|Baldini|Brown|McElwaine|2015|pp=2-5}} and [[Dansgaard–Oeschger event|Dansgaard-Oeschger events]]{{Sfn|Lohmann|Svensson|2022|pp=2033-2037}} through the atmosphere-ice-ocean positive feedbacks.

=== Weathering effects ===
[[File:Timeframes of Different Volcanic Cooling Mechanisms.png|thumb|Timescales of various volcanic cooling mechanisms on climate|380x380px]]
The weathering of a sufficiently large volume of rapidly erupted volcanic materials has been proposed as an important factor in Earth's [[Carbonate–silicate cycle|silicate weathering]] cycle, which operates on a timescale of tens of millions of years.{{Sfn|Jones|Jerram|Svensen|Grove|2016|pp=14-16}} During this process, weathered [[silicate mineral]]s react with carbon dioxide and water, resulting in the formation of [[magnesium carbonate]] and [[calcium carbonate]]. These carbonates are then removed from the atmosphere and [[Carbon sequestration|sequestrated]] on the ocean floor. The eruption of a large volume of volcanic materials can [[Enhanced weathering|enhance weathering]] processes, thereby lowering atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels and contributing to global temperature reduction.

The rapid emplacement of [[mafic]] [[large igneous province]]s has the potential to cause a swift decline in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> content, leading to a multi-million-year-long [[Greenhouse and icehouse Earth|icehouse]] climate.{{Sfn|Goddéris|Donnadieu|Nédélec|Dupré|2003|p=1}}{{Sfn|Cox|Halverson|Stevenson|Vokaty|2016|p=89}} A notable example is the [[Sturtian glaciation]],{{Efn|The Sturtian glaciation is controversially referred to as "[[Snowball Earth]]."}} which is considered the most severe and widespread known glacial event in Earth's history. This glaciation is believed to have been caused by the weathering of erupted [[Franklin Large Igneous Province]].{{Sfn|Cox|Halverson|Stevenson|Vokaty|2016|p=89}}{{Sfn|Pu|Macdonald|Schmitz|Rainbird|2022|p=1}}

==Past volcanic coolings==
[[Dendroclimatology|Tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions]], historical records of dust veils, and [[ice core]]s studies have confirmed that some of the coldest years during the last five millennia were directly caused by massive volcanic injections of SO<sub>2</sub>.{{Sfn|Sigl|Winstrup|McConnell|Welten|2015|p=5}}{{Sfn|Salzer|Hughes|2007|pp=61-63}}
[[File:Volcanic winter of 536, 1258, 1453, 1816.png|thumb|550x550px|Northern Hemisphere coolings are observed following major volcanic eruptions, and temperatures are reconstructed from tree-ring data.{{Sfn|Sigl|Toohey|McConnell|Cole-Dai|2021}}{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Ludlow|Oppenheimer|2020}}]]
Hemispheric temperature anomalies resulting from volcanic eruptions have primarily been reconstructed based on tree-ring data for the past [[Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|two millennia]].{{Efn|Each reconstruction results different magnitudes of volcanic coolings}}{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Ludlow|Oppenheimer|2020}}{{Sfn|Wilson|Anchukaitis|Briffa|Büntgen|2016|pp=11-12}}{{Sfn|Schneider|Smerdon|Büntgen|Wilson|2015|pp=4560-4561}}{{Sfn|Büntgen|Allen|Anchukaitis|Arseneault|2021|pp=5-6}} For earlier periods in the [[Holocene]], the identification of frost rings that coincide with large ice core sulfate spikes serves as an indicator of severe volcanic winters.{{Efn|Frost damage implies a rare occurrence of temperatures dropping below freezing during the [[growing season]].}}{{Sfn|LaMarche|Hirschboeck|1984|p=121}} The quantification of volcanic coolings further back in time during the [[Last Glacial Period]] is made possible by annually resolved [[Δ18O|δ<sup>18</sup>O]] records.{{Efn|[[Δ18O|δ<sup>18</sup>O]] record is proxy of local temperatures.}}{{Sfn|Lohmann|Lin|Vinther|Rasmussen|2023|p=1}}
This is a non-exhaustive compilation of notable and consequential coolings that have been definitively attributed to volcanic aerosols, although the source volcanos of the aerosols are rarely identified.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Northern Hemisphere cooling episodes definitively attributed to volcanic eruptions
!Cooling episode (CE/BCE)
!Volcanic eruptions
!N.H. peak temperature anomaly
!Notes
!Ref.
|-
|1991–1993
|[[1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo]]
|−0.5&nbsp;K
|
|{{Sfn|Soden|Wetherald|Stenchikov|Robock|2002|p=728}}
|-
|1883–1886
|[[1883 eruption of Krakatoa]]
|−0.3&nbsp;K
|
||{{Sfn|Rampino|Self|1982|p=132}}
|-
|1809–1820
|[[1808 mystery eruption]]s, [[1815 eruption of Mount Tambora]]
|−1.7&nbsp;K
|[[Year Without a Summer]]
|{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Ludlow|Oppenheimer|2020}}
|-
|1453–1460
|[[1452/1453 mystery eruption|1452 N.H. mystery eruption]], [[1458 mystery eruption|1458 S.H. mystery eruption]]
|−1.2&nbsp;K
|The attribution of the 1458 eruption to [[Kuwae|Kuwae Caldera]] remains controversial.
|{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Ludlow|Oppenheimer|2020}}
|-
|1258–1260
|[[1257 Samalas eruption]]
|−1.3&nbsp;K
|The single largest sulfur injection of the Common Era.
|{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Ludlow|Oppenheimer|2020}}
|-
|[[Volcanic winter of 536|536–546]]
|535 N.H. mystery eruptions, 540 tropical mystery eruption
|−1.4&nbsp;K
|The first phase of Late Antique Little Ice Age.
|{{Sfn|Büntgen|Myglan|Ljungqvist|McCormick|2016|p=1}}{{Sfn|Guillet|Corona|Ludlow|Oppenheimer|2020}}
|-
|−43–41
|[[Mount Okmok|Okmok II]]
|−2–3&nbsp;K
|
|{{Sfn|McConnell|Sigl|Plunkett|Burke|2020|p=3}}
|}
During the Last Glacial Period, volcanic coolings comparable to the largest volcanic coolings during the Common Era (e.g. Tambora, Samalas) are inferred based on the magnitudes of δ<sup>18</sup>O anomalies.{{Sfn|Lohmann|Lin|Vinther|Rasmussen|2023|p=10}} In particular, in the period 12,000–32,000 years ago, the peak δ<sup>18</sup>O cooling anomaly of the eruptions exceeds the anomaly after the largest eruptions in the Common Era.{{Sfn|Lohmann|Lin|Vinther|Rasmussen|2023|p=11}} One Last Glacial Period eruption that have gained significant attention is the eruption of the Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT), which has sparked vigorous debates regarding its climate effects.

=== Youngest Toba Tuff ===
{{See also|Toba catastrophe theory}}
The eruption of YTT from [[Lake Toba|Toba Caldera]], 74,000 years ago, is regarded as the largest known [[Quaternary]] eruption{{Sfn|Chesner|Rose|Deino|Drake|1991|p=200}} and two orders of magnitude greater than the magma volume of the largest historical eruption, Tambora.{{Sfn|Chesner|Rose|Deino|Drake|1991|p=202}} The exceptional magnitude of this eruption has prompted sustained debate as to its global and regional impact on climate.

Sulfate concentration and isotope measurements from polar ice cores taken around the time of 74,000 years BP have identified four atmospheric aerosol events that could potentially be attributed to YTT.{{Sfn|Svensson|Bigler|Blunier|Clausen|2013|p=755}} The calculated stratospheric sulfate loadings for these four events range from 219 to 535 million tonnes, which is 1 to 3 times greater than that of the Samalas eruption in 1257 CE.{{Sfn|Lin|Abbott|Sigl|Steffensen|2023|p=5}} Global climate models simulate peak global mean cooling of 2.3 to 4.1&nbsp;K for this amount of erupted sulfate aerosols, and complete temperature recovery does not occur within 10 years.{{Sfn|Black|Lamarque|Marsh|Schmidt|2021|p=3}}

Empirical evidence for cooling induced by YTT, however, is mixed. YTT coincides with the onset of Greenland Stadial 20 (GS-20), which is characterized by a 1,500-year cooling period.{{Sfn|Crick|Burke|Hutchison|Kohno|2021|pp=2130-2132}} GS-20 is considered the most isotopically extreme{{Sfn|Svensson|Bigler|Blunier|Clausen|2013|p=760}} and coldest stadial,{{Sfn|Williams|Ambrose|van der Kaars|Ruehlemann|2009|p=295}} as well as having the weakest Asian [[Monsoon of South Asia|monsoon]],{{Sfn|Du|Cheng|Xu|Yang|2019|p=1}} in the last 100,000 years. This timing has led some to speculate on the relation between YTT and GS-20.{{Sfn|Zielinski|Mayewski|Meeker|Whitlow|1996|p=840}}{{Sfn|Polyak|Asmerom|Lachniet|2017|p=843}} The stratigraphic position of YTT in relation to the GS-20 transition suggests that the stadial would have occurred without YTT, as the cooling was already underway.{{Sfn|Zielinski|Mayewski|Meeker|Whitlow|1996|pp=839–840}}{{Sfn|Crick|Burke|Hutchison|Kohno|2021|p=2119}} There is the possibility that YTT contributed to the extremity of GS-20.{{Sfn|Crick|Burke|Hutchison|Kohno|2021|p=2119}}{{Sfn|Menking|Shackleton|Bauska|Buffen|2022|p=5}} The [[South China Sea]] shows a 1&nbsp;K cooling over 1,000 years following the deposition of YTT,{{Sfn|Huang|Zhao|Wang|Wei|2001|p=3915}} while the [[Arabian Sea]] shows no discernible impact.{{Sfn|Schulz|Emeis|Erlenkeuser|von Rad|2002|p=22}} In India and the [[Bay of Bengal]], initial cooling and prolonged desiccation are observed above the YTT ash layer,{{Sfn|Williams|Ambrose|van der Kaars|Ruehlemann|2009|p=295}} but it is argued that these environmental changes were already occurring prior to YTT.{{Sfn|Petraglia|Ditchfield|Jones|Korisettar|2012|p=119}} [[Lake Malawi]] sediments do not provide evidence supporting a volcanic winter within a few years after the eruption of YTT,{{Sfn|Lane|Chorn|Johnson|2013|p=8025}}{{Sfn|Jackson|Stone|Cohen|Yost|2015|p=823}}{{Sfn|Yost|Jackson|Stone|Cohen|2018|p=75}} but the resolution of the sediments is questioned due to sediment mixing.{{Sfn|Ambrose|2019|pp=183–185}} Directly above the YTT layer in Lake Malawi, there is evidence of a 2,000-year-long [[megadrought]] and cooling period.{{Sfn|Ambrose|2019|pp=187–188}} Greenland ice cores identify a 110-year period of accelerated cooling immediately following what is likely the YTT aerosol event.{{Sfn|Lin|Abbott|Sigl|Steffensen|2023|p=7}}

=== Sturtian glaciation ===
The enhanced weathering of continental flood basalts, which erupted just prior to the onset of the [[Sturtian glaciation]] at 717 million years ago, is recognized as the trigger for the most severe glaciation in Earth's history.{{Sfn|Pu|Macdonald|Schmitz|Rainbird|2022|p=1}}{{Sfn|Cox|Halverson|Stevenson|Vokaty|2016|p=89}}{{Sfn|Goddéris|Donnadieu|Nédélec|Dupré|2003|p=1}} During this period, Earth's surface temperatures dropped below the freezing point of water everywhere,{{Sfn|Hoffman|Abbot|Ashkenazy|Benn|2017|p=2}} and ice rapidly advanced from low latitudes to the [[equator]], covering a worldwide extent.{{Sfn|Lan|Li|Zhu|Chen|2014|p=401}} This glaciation lasted almost 60 million years, from 717 to 659 million years ago.{{Sfn|Mitchell|Gernon|Nordsvan|Cox|2019|p=381}}

[[Geochronology]] dates the rapid emplacement of {{Convert|5,000,000|km2|mi2|abbr=on}} Franklin large igneous province just 1 million year before the onset of Sturtian glaciation.{{Sfn|Pu|Macdonald|Schmitz|Rainbird|2022|p=1}} Multiple large igneous provinces on the scale of {{Convert|1,000,000|km2|mi2|abbr=on}} were also emplaced on [[Rodinia]] between 850 and 720 million years ago.{{Sfn|Cox|Halverson|Stevenson|Vokaty|2016|p=91}}{{Sfn|Lu|Mitchell|Yang|Zhou|2022|p=1}} Weathering of massive amount of fresh mafic materials initiated runaway cooling and ice-albedo feedback after 1 million year. Chemical isotopic compositions show a massive flux of weathered freshly erupted materials entering the ocean, coinciding with the eruptions of large igneous provinces.{{Sfn|Rooney|Macdonald|Strauss|Dudás|2014|p=55}}{{Sfn|Cox|Halverson|Stevenson|Vokaty|2016|pp=92-94}} Simulations demonstrate that the increased weatherability led to drop in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> of the order of 1,320 ppm and an 8 K cooling of global temperatures, triggering the most extraordinary episode of climate change in the geologic record.{{Sfn|Donnadieu|Goddéris|Ramstein|Nédélec|2004|pp=303}}

==Effects on life==
{{further|1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo#Effects on agriculture}}
[[Image:Toba zoom.jpg|thumb|right|The [[supervolcano]] caldera [[Lake Toba]] ]]

[[Population bottleneck]]s{{Mdash}}a sharp decrease in the population of a [[species]] population{{Mdash}}have been attributed to volcanic winters by some researchers. Such events may diminish populations to "levels low enough for evolutionary changes, which occur much faster in small populations, to produce rapid population differentiation".<ref name=Burroughs>Burroughs, William James (2005). ''Climate Change in Prehistory: The End of the Reign of Chaos,'' Cambridge University Press, p. 139 {{ISBN|978-0521824095}}</ref> With the Lake Toba bottleneck, many species showed the massive genetic effects of this decrease in the gene pool; Toba may have reduced the human population to between 15,000 and 40,000, or even fewer.<ref name=Burroughs/>

==See also==
* [[Global dimming]]
* [[Impact winter]]
* [[List of famines]]
* [[Nuclear winter]]
* [[Timeline of volcanism on Earth]]

== Notes ==
{{notelist}}

==References==
{{Reflist}}

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==Further reading==
* {{cite journal |last1=Rampino |first1=M R |last2=Self |first2=S |last3=Stothers |first3=R B |title=Volcanic Winters |journal=Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences |date=May 1988 |volume=16 |issue=1 |pages=73–99 |doi=10.1146/annurev.ea.16.050188.000445 |issn=0084-6597 |bibcode=1988AREPS..16...73R}}

==External links==
{{Wiktionary}}
* {{Commonscatinline|Volcanic winters}}

{{List of volcanoes}}
{{Doomsday}}{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Volcanic Winter}}
[[Category:Volcanic winters| ]]
[[Category:Doomsday scenarios]]
[[Category:Events that forced the climate]]