(35396) 1997 XF11
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Template:Mp (provisional designation Template:Mp) is a kilometer-sized asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object, Mars-crosser and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group.<ref name="MPC-object" />
| Date & Time | Approach to |
Nominal distance | uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028-Oct-26 06:44 | Earth | Template:Val | ± 106 km<ref name="Horizons2028"/> |
| 2028-Oct-26 07:39 | Moon | Template:Val | ± 106 km |
Description
Three months after its discovery on 6 December 1997 by James V. Scotti of the University of Arizona's Spacewatch Project, the asteroid was predicted to make an exceptionally close approach to Earth on 28 October 2028. Additional precovery observations of the asteroid from 1990 were quickly found that refined the orbit and it is now known the asteroid will pass Earth on 26 October 2028, at a distance of Template:Convert.<ref name=jpldata /><ref name=Sormano /><ref name=neodys /> During the close approach, the asteroid should peak at about apparent magnitude 8.2,<ref name="NEODyS2028" /> and will be visible in binoculars.<ref name="nasa-news" />
Template:Mp measures between 0.7 and 1.4 kilometers in diameter.<ref name="lcdb" /><ref name="Masiero-2017" /><ref name="Trilling-2016" />
This asteroid also regularly comes near the large asteroid Pallas.<ref name=neodys />
IAU Circular
On 11 March 1998, using a three-month observation arc, a faulty International Astronomical Union circular and press information sheet were put out that incorrectly concluded "that the asteroid was 'virtually certain' to pass within 80% of the distance to the Moon and stood a 'small...not entirely out of the question' possibility of hitting the Earth in 2028."<ref name="SwRI"/> But by 23 December 1997, it was clear that XF11 had no reasonable possibility of an Earth impact.<ref name="SwRI"/> Many news outlets mistakenly emphasized the possibility of disaster.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>
Within hours of the announcement, independent calculations by Paul Chodas, Don Yeomans, and Karri Muinonen had calculated that the probability of Earth impact was essentially zero, and vastly less than the probability of impact from as-yet-undiscovered asteroids.<ref name="SwRI" /> Chodas (1999) concurs with Marsden (1999) that based on the 1997 data alone there was about 1 chance in a hundred thousand that XF11 could have been on an Earth-impact trajectory—that is, until the 1990 precovery observations eliminated such possibilities.<ref name="ncar799" /> During the October 2002 close approach, the asteroid was observed by the 70-meter Goldstone radar dish, further refining the orbit.<ref name="nasa-news" />
Template:Large near earth asteroid flybys 5LD
References
External links
- Template:Mp at the European Asteroid Research Node (E.A.R.N)
- Brian Marsden: Template:Mp: the true story (Archived from the original Template:Webarchive)
- Spacewatch animation of Template:MpTemplate:Dead link
- Asteroid Template:Mp (Earth Close-Approach), JPL Near-Earth Object Program
- Template:NeoDys
- Template:ESA-SSA
- Template:JPL small body
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