2002 German federal election

Template:Short description Template:Use dmy dates Template:Infobox election The 2002 German federal election was held in Germany on 22 September 2002 to elect the members of the 15th Bundestag. Incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's centre-left "red-green" governing coalition retained a narrow majority, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) retained their status as the largest party in the Bundestag by three seats.

Issues and campaign

Several issues dominated the campaign, with the opposition CDU/CSU attacking the government's performance on the economy which fell back into recession due to the Telecoms crash and the introduction of the euro, as well as campaigning on family values and against taxes (particularly on fuel).

In the run up to the election, the CSU/CDU held a huge lead in the opinion polls and Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Edmund Stoiber famously remarked that "...Template:Nbspthis election is like a football match where it's the second half and my team is ahead by 2–0."<ref>Jess Smee (17 January 2007), Stoiber quits after snooping row Template:Webarchive The Guardian.</ref>

However, event soon overtook Stoiber and the CDU/CSU campaign. The SPD and the Greens were helped by broad support for its opposition to an invasion of Iraq, continued media attention on the CDU funding scandal and by Gerhard Schröder's personal popularity relative to the opposition's candidate for chancellor, Stoiber.

The SPD was also boosted by Schröder's swift response to the August floods in eastern Germany, as compared to Stoiber, who was on vacation and responded late to the events.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

With Guido Westerwelle, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the FDP presented a chancellor candidate for the first time, usually a title reserved for the main election leaders of the SPD and CDU/CSU. This was met with general derision and Westerwelle was excluded from the chancellor television debate, the first one, against which he unsuccessfully sued.

Contesting parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Bundestag:

Name				Ideology	Lead candidate	1998 result
						Votes (%)	Seats
style="background:Template:Party color;" |	SPD		Social Democratic Party of Germany	Social democracy	Gerhard Schröder	40.9%	Template:Composition bar
rowspan="2" style="background:Template:Party color;" |	CDU/CSU	CDU	Template:Nowrap	Christian democracy	Edmund Stoiber	35.1%	Template:Composition bar
CSU		Christian Social Union in BavariaTemplate:Efn	6.2%Template:Efn
style="background:Template:Party color;" |	Grüne		Alliance 90/The Greens	Green politics	Joschka Fischer	6.7%	Template:Composition bar
style="background:Template:Party color;" |	FDP		Free Democratic Party	Classical liberalism	Guido Westerwelle	6.2%	Template:Composition bar
style="background:Template:Party color;" |	PDS		Party of Democratic Socialism	Socialism	Gabi Zimmer	5.1%	Template:Composition bar

Opinion polls

File:Germany 2002 polling.svg

After a brief honeymoon period, the CDU/CSU overtook the SPD in opinion polling in early 1999. This dramatically reversed after the CDU donations scandal, and the SPD established a strong lead which it held throughout 2000 and 2001. The CDU/CSU retook first place at the beginning of election year, and combined with a strong FDP, the opposition held a clear lead over the SPD–Green incumbents through mid-August. Schröder's response to the floods that month buoyed the SPD's numbers, and put the CDU/CSU, FDP, and PDS on a downward trend. Polling during the final week of the campaign gave a narrow edge of the SPD, but also indicated the FDP would finish ahead of the Greens. Meanwhile, it was unclear if the PDS would win proportional seats, leaving the final outcome on a knife's edge.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	PDS	Others	Lead
			style="background:Template:Party color;"|	style="background:Template:Party color;"|	style="background:Template:Party color;"|	style="background:Template:Party color;"|	style="background:Template:Party color;"|
2005 federal election	22 Sep 2002	–	38.5	38.5	8.6	7.4	4.0	3.0	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 0.01
Forsa	20 Sep 2002	2,021	38.5–39.5	37.0–38.0	6.5–7.5	7.0–8.0	4.0–4.5		style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 0.5–2.5
Allensbach	20 Sep 2002		37.5	37.0	7.5	9.5	4.5	4.0	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 0.5
Allensbach	6–15 Sep 2002	~2,000	37.0	37.3	7.2	10.1	4.4	4.0	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 0.3
Emnid	14 Sep 2002	3,518	39	37	7	8	5	4	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 2
Forsa	9–14 Sep 2002	3,006	40	38	7	8	4	3	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	9–12 Sep 2002	1,326	40.0	37.0	7.0	7.5	4.5	4.0	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 3.0
Infratest dimap	9–12 Sep 2002	2,000	38.5	36.0	8.0	8.5	4.7	4.3	style="background:Template:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 2.5

Results

Although most opposition parties gained seats, and the result was in doubt for most of the election night, the governing coalition retained a narrow majority. In particular, the SPD was able to partially offset declines in their vote share in the West with an increase in the East, with the PDS falling below both the 5% threshold and the 3-seat threshold, either of which is required to qualify a party for top-up seats. Consequently, the PDS held only two directly elected seats.

File:2002 federal german result.svg

Seat results – SPD in red, Greens in green, PDS in purple, FDP in yellow, CDU/CSU in black

Results by state

Second vote (Zweitstimme, or votes for party list)

State results in %	SPD	CDU/CSUTemplate:Efn	GRÜNE	FDP	PDS	all others
Template:Flag	33.5	42.8	11.4	7.8	1.0	3.5
Template:Flag	26.1	58.6	7.6	4.5	0.7	2.5
Template:Flag	36.6	25.9	14.6	6.6	11.4	4.9
Template:Flag	46.4	22.3	4.5	5.8	17.2	3.8
Template:Flag	48.6	24.6	15.0	6.7	2.2	2.9
Template:Flag	42.0	28.1	16.2	6.8	2.1	4.8
Template:Flag	39.7	37.1	10.7	8.2	1.3	3.0
Template:Flag	41.7	30.3	3.5	5.4	16.3	2.8
Template:Flag	47.8	34.5	7.3	7.1	1.0	2.3
Template:Flag	43.0	35.1	8.9	9.4	1.2	2.4
Template:Flag	38.2	40.3	7.9	9.3	1.0	3.3
Template:Flag	46.0	35.0	7.6	6.4	1.4	3.6
Template:Flag	33.3	33.6	4.6	7.3	16.2	4.9
Template:Flag	43.2	29.0	3.4	7.6	14.4	2.4
Template:Flag	42.9	36.0	9.4	8.0	1.3	2.4
Template:Flag	39.9	29.4	4.3	5.9	17.0	3.5

• SPD vote
  SPD vote
• CDU/CSU vote
  CDU/CSU vote
• Green vote
  Green vote
• FDP vote
  FDP vote
• PDS vote
  PDS vote

Constituency seats

State	Total seats	Seats won
		SPD	CDU	CSU	PDS	Grüne
		style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |
Baden-Württemberg	37	7	30
Bavaria	44	1		43
Berlin	12	9			2	1
Brandenburg	10	10
Bremen	2	2
Hamburg	6	6
Hesse	21	17	4
Lower Saxony	29	25	4
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	7	5	2
North Rhine-Westphalia	64	45	19
Rhineland-Palatinate	15	7	8
Saarland	4	4
Saxony	17	4	13
Saxony-Anhalt	10	10
Schleswig-Holstein	11	10	1
Thuringia	10	9	1
Total	299	171	82	43	2	1

List seats

State	Total seats	Seats won
		CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	CSU
		style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |	style="background:Template:Party color;" |
Baden-Württemberg	39	4	20	9	6
Bavaria	51		25	7	4	15
Berlin	11	6		3	2
Brandenburg	6	4		1	1
Bremen	2	1		1
Hamburg	7	4		2	1
Hesse	23	13	1	5	4
Lower Saxony	34	18	6	5	5
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	3	2			1
North Rhine-Westphalia	70	30	15	12	13
Rhineland-Palatinate	15	5	5	2	3
Saarland	5	3		1	1
Saxony	12		8	2	2
Saxony-Anhalt	8	6		1	1
Schleswig-Holstein	11	7		2	2
Thuringia	7	5		1	1
Total	304	108	80	54	47	15

Post-election

The coalition between the SPD and the Greens continued in government, with Schröder as chancellor. However, due to the slim majority in the Bundestag, the governing coalition was not stable.

Further reading

• Template:Cite journal

Sources

• The Federal Returning Officer
• Psephos