2003 Catalan regional election

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Template:Short description Template:Infobox election A regional election was held in Catalonia on Sunday, 16 November 2003, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

This election marked a change for all Catalan political parties due to Catalan president Jordi Pujol's decision not to seek a seventh term in office and to retire from active politics. The election results were a great disappointment for Pasqual Maragall's Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), which again saw Convergence and Union (CiU) winning a plurality of seats despite them winning the most votes by a margin of just 0.3%. Opinion polls earlier in the year had predicted a much larger victory for Maragall, but his lead over CiU had begun to narrow as the election grew nearer. Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) was perceived as the true victor of the election, doubling its 1999 figures and scoring its best result in its recent history up to that point, both in terms of seats (23 of 135) and votes (16.4%), up from 11 seats and 8.7%.

As Pujol's successor Artur Mas did not win a majority large enough to renew his party pact with the People's Party (PP), which had kept Pujol in power since 1995, an alliance between the PSC, ERC and ICV–EUiA resulted in a Catalan "tripartite" government. Thus, despite losing 10 seats and 150,000 votes compared to the 1999 election, Maragall became the first centre-left president of the Government of Catalonia, ending with 23 uninterrupted years of CiU rule.

Background

In the 1999 election, and as a result of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)'s growth, the Catalan nationalist Convergence and Union (CiU) had lost the vote share in a regional election for the first time ever, but clung on to retain the largest amount of seats due to the disproportionate allocation of seats in Girona, Lleida and Tarragona compared to Barcelona. Through to the support of the People's Party (PP), Jordi Pujol had been able to be re-elected to a sixth term in office with a slim majority of 68 to the 67 seats commanded by the left-from-centre opposition.

Despite Pujol's personal approval ratings remaining high until the end of his term, speculation on his possible retirement (which he confirmed on 1 April 2001),<ref name="EP010401">Template:Cite news</ref> internal disputes between Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) over the future of the alliance<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>—which resulted in CiU being turned into a full-fledged party federation in order to ensure its continuity in the post-Pujol era<ref name="LV031201">Template:Cite news</ref>—and a desire for change after 23 years in power had resulted in CiU trailing the PSC in opinion polls for the entire legislature, with a lead that was nearly into the double digits by mid-to-late 2002. From mid-2003, however, the Socialist lead had begun to narrow to the point that chances for a possible reenactment of the 1999 tight race remained high. The retirement of Pujol as CiU candidate paved the way for Artur Mas, the then chief minister (Template:Langx), to replace him as the culmination of a long successory process.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) had been in an almost continuous growth since the 1988 election, becoming a political force able to pierce through the dominant two-party system in Catalonia. Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) and United and Alternative Left (EUiA) had run separately in the previous election, but ahead of the 2003 election joined within the ICV–EA coalition.

Overview

Under the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Catalonia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.<ref>Template:Harvp.</ref> As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under transitory provisions, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.<ref name="EAC1979DT4">Template:Harvp.</ref>

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote.<ref name="EAC1979DT4"/><ref name="EAC1979Art31">Template:Harvp.</ref><ref>Template:Harvp.</ref>

The Parliament of Catalonia was entitled to 135 seats. All members were elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency.<ref name="EAC1979DT4"/><ref name="EAC1979Art31"/><ref>Template:Harvp.</ref> The use of the electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:<ref name="EAC1979DT4"/><ref name="ElectionDecree">Template:Cite act</ref>

Seats Constituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.<ref>Template:Harvp.</ref>

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication.<ref name="EAC1979DT4"/><ref name="EAC1979Art31"/><ref>Template:Harvp.</ref> The previous election was held on 17 October 1999, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 17 October 2003. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGC no later than 23 September 2007, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 16 November 2003.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure.<ref>Template:Harvp.</ref> In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.<ref>Template:Harvp.</ref><ref>Template:Harvp.</ref>

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 23 September 2003 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGC, setting election day for 16 November.<ref name="ElectionDecree"/>

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.<ref name="HE">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Parliamentary composition in September 2003Template:Sfn
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
width="1" rowspan="2" bgcolor="Template:Party color"| Convergence and Union's Parliamentary Group width="1" style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CDC 41 56
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| UDC 15
rowspan="2" style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Socialists–Citizens for Change Parliamentary Group style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PSC 35 50
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CpC 15
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| People's Parliamentary Group style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PP 12 12
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| ERC 12 12
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Initiative for Catalonia–Greens's Parliamentary Group style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| ICV 5 5

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.<ref>Template:Harvp.</ref>

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Template:Abbr Template:Abbr
Vote % Seats
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CiU Template:Collapsible list File:Artur Mas 2006 (cropped).jpg Artur Mas Catalan nationalism
Centrism 		37.7% Template:Big Template:Ya <ref name="EP010401"/>
<ref name="LV031201"/>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PSC–CpC Template:Collapsible list File:Pasqual Maragall 2004 (cropped).jpg Pasqual Maragall Social democracy 37.9% Template:Big Template:Na <ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PP Template:Collapsible list File:Josep Piqué 1999 (cropped).jpg Josep Piqué Conservatism
Christian democracy 		9.5% Template:Big Template:Na <ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| ERC Template:Collapsible list File:Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira 2001 (cropped).jpg Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy 		8.7% Template:Big Template:Na <ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| ICV–EA Template:Collapsible list File:Joan Saura 2005 (cropped).jpg Joan Saura Regionalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics
3.9%
Template:Efn 		Template:Big Template:Na <ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>
<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Template:Wide image

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Template:Smaller

Template:Smaller

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates
Maragall vs. Mas
Maragall vs. Pujol
Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida
Maragall vs. Mas vs. Piqué
Maragall vs. Pujol vs. Piqué
Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida vs. Piqué

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

All candidates
Maragall vs. Mas
Maragall vs. Pujol
Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida
Maragall vs. Mas vs. Piqué
Maragall vs. Pujol vs. Piqué
Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida vs. Piqué

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered voter turnout on election day, without including non-resident citizens.

Province Time
13:00 18:00 20:00
1995 1999 +/– 1995 1999 +/– 1995 1999 +/–
Barcelona 24.13% 26.00% +1.87 46.10% 50.79% +4.69 59.52% 62.94% +3.42
Girona 26.70% 29.23% +2.53 50.32% 54.76% +4.44 62.75% 65.95% +3.20
Lleida 22.59% 25.45% +2.86 46.95% 52.78% +5.83 62.12% 66.97% +4.85
Tarragona 23.59% 26.21% +2.62 44.87% 49.92% +5.05 58.91% 62.33% +3.42
Total 24.21% 26.27% +2.06 46.40% 51.17% +4.77 59.90% 63.38% +3.48
Sources<ref name="GCat">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation CitationClass=web

}}</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

CitationClass=web

}}</ref>

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 16 November 2003 Parliament of Catalonia election results →
File:CataloniaParliamentDiagram2003.svg
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Socialists' Party of Catalonia–Citizens for Change (PSC–CpC) 1,031,454 31.16 −6.69 42 −10
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Convergence and Union (CiU) 1,024,425 30.94 −6.76 46 −10
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) 544,324 16.44 +7.77 23 +11
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| People's Party (PP) 393,499 11.89 +2.38 15 +3
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Initiative for Catalonia Greens–Alternative Left (ICV–EA)1 241,163 7.28 +3.35 9 +6
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| The Greens–The Ecologist Alternative (EV–AE) 18,470 0.56 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Platform for Catalonia (PxC) 4,892 0.15 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI) 4,226 0.13 +0.04 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Communist Party of the Catalan People (PCPC) 2,580 0.08 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Unsubmissive Seats (Ei) 2,220 0.07 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Catalan State (EC) 1,890 0.06 ±0.00 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV) 1,886 0.06 −0.20 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Republican Left–Left Republican Party (IR–PRE) 1,714 0.05 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Humanist Party of Catalonia (PHC) 1,647 0.05 +0.01 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Another Democracy is Possible (UADeP) 1,386 0.04 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Democratic and Social Centre (CDS) 1,073 0.03 −0.01 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Caló Nationalist Party (PNCA) 812 0.02 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Republican Social Movement (MSR) 804 0.02 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Internationalist Struggle (LI (LIT–CI)) 802 0.02 ±0.00 0 ±0
Spaniards Under Separatism (EBS) 603 0.02 New 0 ±0
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB) 401 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 30,212 0.91 −0.02
Total 3,310,483 135 ±0
Valid votes 3,310,483 99.74 −0.01
Invalid votes 8,793 0.26 +0.01
Votes cast / turnout 3,319,276 62.54 +3.34
Abstentions 1,988,561 37.46 −3.34
Registered voters 5,307,837
Sources<ref name="HE"/><ref name="GCat"/><ref name="Results1">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name="Results2">Template:Cite journal</ref>
Template:Hidden

Template:Bar box Template:Bar box

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSC–CpC CiU ERC PP ICV–EA
colspan="2" style="background:Template:Party color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Party color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Party color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Party color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Party color"|
% S % S % S % S % S
Barcelona style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"| 33.2 29 28.8 25 15.2 13 12.6 11 8.0 7
Girona 23.7 4 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"| 38.7 7 21.9 4 8.1 1 5.3 1
Lleida 22.5 4 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"| 41.4 7 19.9 3 9.7 1 4.4 –
Tarragona 28.2 5 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"| 33.8 7 19.0 3 11.8 2 5.2 1
Total style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"| 31.2 42 30.9 46 16.4 23 11.9 15 7.3 9
Sources<ref name="HE"/><ref name="GCat"/><ref name="Results1"/><ref name="Results2"/>

Aftermath

Investiture
Pasqual Maragall (PSC)
Ballot → 16 December 2003
Required majority → 68 out of 135 Template:Tick
Template:Collapsible list Template:Composition bar
Template:Collapsible list Template:Composition bar
Abstentions Template:Composition bar
Absentees Template:Composition bar
Sources<ref name="HE"/>

Notes

Template:Notelist

References

Opinion poll sources

Template:Reflist

Other

Template:Reflist

Bibliography

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Template:Catalan elections Template:Regional elections in Spain in the 2000s

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