2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Template:Short description Template:Use American English Template:Use mdy dates {{#invoke:Labelled list hatnote|labelledList|Main article|Main articles|Main page|Main pages}} Template:Infobox election Template:Elections in New Jersey sidebar The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by a 6.68% margin of victory in New Jersey. Bush, however, was re-elected to the presidency.
Prior to the election, most news organizations considered New Jersey a blue state that Kerry would win. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, political observers believed that the presidential contest in New Jersey would be closer than usual. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign, and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state.Template:Cn
Primaries
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. The table below shows their final predictions before Election Day.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Template:USRaceRating |
| Cook Political Report | Template:USRaceRating |
| Research 2000 | Template:USRaceRating |
| Zogby International | Template:USRaceRating |
| Washington Post | Template:USRaceRating |
| Washington Dispatch | Template:USRaceRating |
| Washington Times | Template:USRaceRating |
| The New York Times | Template:USRaceRating |
| CNN | Template:USRaceRating |
| Newsweek | Template:USRaceRating |
| Associated Press | Template:USRaceRating |
| Rasmussen Reports | Template:USRaceRating |
Polling
Kerry led by small margins in most pre-election polls taken in New Jersey. A final three-poll rolling average showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 42%.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
John Kerry (D) |
Ralph Nader (I) |
Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.1>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
June 11–16, 2003 | 815 RV | ±3.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 37% | – | 1% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.2>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 43% | – | 9% | |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.3>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac1>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
May 10–16, 2004 | 1,122 RV | ±2.9% | 44% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 1% | 7% |
| 43% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 5% | 1% | 6% | |||||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
June 15–20, 2004 | 1,167 RV | ±2.9% | 41% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | 2% | 7% |
| 40% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 7% | 0% | 7% | |||||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac3>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
July 30–August 2, 2004 | 996 RV | ±3.1% | 38% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | – | 2% | 8% |
| 36% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 6% | 1% | 8% | |||||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac4>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
August 19–23, 2004 | 887 RV | ±3.3% | 39% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | 1% | 8% |
| 39% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 4% | 1% | 8% | |||||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac5>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
September 16–19, 2004 | 672 LV | ±3.8% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
| 48% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | 1% | 2% | |||||
| 943 RV | ±3.2% | 43% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 3% | 1% | 6% | |||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac6>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
October 1–4, 2004 | 819 LV | ±3.4% | 46% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 46% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | 1% | 4% | |||||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac7>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
October 14–17, 2004 | 786 LV | ±2.9% | 45% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 45% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | – | 0% | 5% | |||||
| 1,123 RV | ±2.9% | 39% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 2% | 0% | 12% | |||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac8>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
October 21–25, 2004 | 852 LV | ±3.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| 1,179 RV | ±2.9% | 41% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 2% | 1% | 12% | |||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac9>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
October 27–31, 2004 | 984 LV | ±3.1% | 43% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2002>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
December 3–9, 2002 | 934 RV | ±3.2% | 43% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 2% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Wesley Clark (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.2/> | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 42% | 11% | |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.3/> | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 45% | 1% | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Hillary Clinton (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.1/> | June 11–16, 2003 | 815 RV | ±3.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 38% | 2% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.2/> | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 45% | 8% | |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.3/> | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Howard Dean (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.2/> | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 40% | 10% | |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.3/> | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Dick Gephardt (D) |
Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.2/> | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 44% | 8% | ||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.3>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Al Gore (D) |
Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2002>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
December 3–9, 2002 | 934 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 45% | 2% | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Joe Lieberman (D) |
Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.1/> | June 11–16, 2003 | 815 RV | ±3.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 39% | 1% | 7% | |
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.2/> | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 44% | 7% | ||
| Quinnipiac<ref name=qpac2003.3>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref> |
November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 46% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 1% | 5% |
Fundraising
Bush raised $5,934,011 from New Jersey donors,<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> while Kerry raised $6,513,274.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>
Results
| 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation | CitationClass=web
}}</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |
CitationClass=web
}}</ref> | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |||
| Democratic | John Kerry | 1,911,430 | 52.92% | 15 | |||
| Republican | George W. Bush (Inc.) | 1,670,003 | 46.24% | 0 | |||
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 19,418 | 0.54% | 0 | |||
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 4,514 | 0.12% | 0 | |||
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | 2,750 | 0.08% | 0 | |||
| Green | David Cobb | 1,807 | 0.05% | 0 | |||
| Socialist | Walt Brown | 664 | 0.02% | 0 | |||
| Socialist Equality | Bill Van Auken | 575 | 0.02% | 0 | |||
| Socialist Workers | Roger Calero | 530 | 0.01% | 0 | |||
| Totals | 3,611,691 | 100.00% | 15 | ||||
| Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) | 56%/72% | ||||||
By county
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
- Monmouth (largest municipality: Middletown Township)
By congressional district
Kerry won seven of 13 congressional districts.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>
Analysis
Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. Bush won the largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris) and Salem County in the southwest. He also carried the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May.
This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the first time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1860 and 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.
Electors
{{#invoke:Labelled list hatnote|labelledList|Main article|Main articles|Main page|Main pages}} The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state of New Jersey in 2004. All 15 were pledged to support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>
- Warren Wallace
- Wilfredo Caraballo
- Tom Canzanella
- Carolyn Walch
- Peggy Anastos
- Bernard Kenny
- Ronald Rice
- Abed Awad
- Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
- Wendy Benchle
- Loni Kaplan
- Carolyn Wade
- Riletta L. Cream
- Bernadette McPherson
- Upendra Chivukula
See also
References
External links
Template:State results of the 2004 U.S. presidential election Template:2004 U.S. presidential election