Anti-incumbency

Template:Short description Template:Use dmy dates Anti-incumbency is sentiment in favor of voting out incumbent politicians, for the specific reason of being incumbent politicians. It is sometimes referred to as a "throw the bums out" sentiment. Periods of anti-incumbent sentiment are typically characterized by wave elections.<ref name=stanford/> This sentiment can also lead to support for term limits.

In a two-party system, anti-incumbent voters have only one party to vote for, when voting against the incumbent; in a multi-party system, public mood, i.e., the tendency of opinions held by voters over a set of related policy issues, can determine which parties receive the anti-incumbent vote.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

Causes

When voters perceive times as bad, this can cause anti-incumbent sentiment. However, this is subject to biases. Perceptions of whether, e.g., economic conditions have worsened during a politician's term are influenced by partisan bias, for instance.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> In the United States, reliance on partisan media, as opposed to mainstream media, is associated with anti-incumbent attitudes toward Congress.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> New democracies' elections, such as those in Central and Eastern Europe, and in Latin America and Asia, often are characterized by anti-incumbency.<ref name=ecpr>Template:Cite journal</ref>

History

In 2024, almost every incumbent party worldwide facing election in 2024 lost power, as was the case in the United Kingdom, United States, Ghana, Senegal, and Botswana; or faced a loss in vote share, as was the case in South Africa, India, France, and Japan.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref><ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Among democracies, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose support compared to the last election.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> This is the first time this has ever happened since 1905 (when data was first recorded) and the first time in the history of democracy, as universal suffrage began in 1894.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, virtually every government has been ousted from power after one legislative period.<ref name=ecpr/>

Bhutan

The 2018 Bhutanese National Assembly election had an anti-incumbent result.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

India

India has the highest rate of anti-incumbency in the world,<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> with incumbents from the ruling party having only a fifty-fifty shot at returning to parliament.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> For example, since 1985, the electorate in Assam has oscillated between voting the Asom Gana Parishad and the Indian National Congress to power.<ref>Counting on Anti-Incumbency Economic and Political Weekly, 24 March 2001, Vol.36(12), pp.981-981</ref> In Karnataka, the last time the ruling government was re-elected was in the 1985 Indian elections.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> Kerala has always voted in whichever is the opposition pre-poll alliance from the 1982 assembly elections until the 2021 election.<ref name=":0">Template:Cite web</ref> Voter turnout does not appear correlated with incumbents' electoral performance.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

In 2018, India's period of anti-incumbency was accompanied by acute rural distress, multiple farmer agitations and serious joblessness.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

Mexico

In the 2010 Mexican gubernatorial elections, incumbents from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, National Action Party, and Party of the Democratic Revolution were rejected.<ref>An Anti-Incumbency Wave -- in Mexico. Krauze, Enrique The New York Times, July 7, 2010, p.A21(L)</ref>

United States

Eras of anti-incumbent sentiment included the Gilded Age, in which the majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives shifted six times in the 15 Congressional elections between 1870 and 1900, with three of those shifts involving losses of more than 70 seats by the majority party. David M. Kennedy notes, "Generations of American scholars have struggled to find a coherent narrative or to identify heroic leaders in that era's messy and inconclusive political scene."<ref name=stanford>Template:Cite news</ref>

The 1992 United States elections were also characterized by anti-incumbent sentiment, as a stubborn recession and persistently high unemployment fuelled voter dissatisfaction.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> A 2013 poll found that 60% of Americans would vote to "defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including [their] own representative" if that option were available.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

The 2024 United States presidential election also fueled considerable anti-incumbent sentiment, particularly among Generation Z, primarily due to immigration policy, post-COVID inflation, the Gaza war, and age and health concerns regarding the incumbent president Joe Biden.Template:Citation needed

The concept of anti-incumbency, at least with regard to U.S. elections, is controversial, since more often voters will punish only one party.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Three organizations that supported voting out incumbents were Throw the Hypocritical Rascals Out, Vote Out Incumbents Democracy and Tenure Corrupts.

Criticism

A perceived disadvantage of anti-incumbency, with regard to judicial elections, is that good lawyers will not want to accept what they regard as a revolving-door judgeship.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Another criticism of anti-incumbency is that it causes political parties to focus on single-term policies rather than long-term development.<ref name=":0" />