Power projection

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File:USS Nimitz in Victoria Canada 036.jpg
Aircraft carriers such as the Template:USS play an important role in modern power projection.

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Power projection (or force projection or strength projection) in international relations is the capacity of a state to deploy and sustain forces outside its territory.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref> The ability of a state to project its power into an area may serve as an effective diplomatic lever, influencing the decision-making processes and acting as a potential deterrent on other states' behavior.<ref>Bartosz Głowacki (4 Feb 2022) What weapons will Poland send to Ukraine – and is an alliance next?</ref><ref>Reuters (February 1, 2022) Factbox-How Ukraine's armed forces shape up against Russia's</ref>Template:Anchor<ref name= u24 >Pravda (Правда) (17 Mar 2022) Zelenskyy explained the essence of the new military alliance   U24 from Zelenskyy's night address verbatim: "I addressed the United States and all responsible states with a proposition to create a new U24 union: a new union that will ensure that each aggressor receives a coordinated world response quickly, effectively, and immediately - not in weeks, months, years, but for the first 24 hours after the attack."   "We can no longer trust existing institutions. We cannot expect bureaucrats in international organisations to change fast enough, so we must look for new guarantees, create new tools, and to build alliances with those who have the courage to do what justice demands."</ref><ref>Salamah Magnuson, Morgan Keay, Kimberly Metcalf (Spring 2022) Countering Hybrid Warfare: Mapping Social Contracts to Reinforce Societal Resiliency in Estonia and Beyond</ref>

This ability is a crucial element of a state's power in international relations. Any state able to direct its military forces outside its territory might be said to have some level of power projection capability, but the term itself is used most frequently in reference to militaries with a worldwide reach (or at least significantly broader than a state's immediate area). Even states with sizable hard power assets (such as a large standing army) may only be able to exert limited regional influence so long as they lack the means of effectively projecting their power on a global scale. Generally, only a select few states are able to overcome the logistical difficulties inherent in the deployment and direction of a modern, mechanized military force.<ref>Michael J. Mazarr (15 Apr 2020) Toward a New Theory of Power Projection</ref><ref name= whyAndWhat /> Allies and partners can take up or share some of the burden of power projection.<ref>Katie Lange (8 Oct 2018) National Defense Strategy: Alliances and Partnerships</ref><ref>Ian Ward (23 Feb 2022) Joe Biden's Secret Constitutional Weapon</ref><ref>Andrew Desiderio, Tara Palmeri and Meridith McGraw (23 Feb 2022) Republicans descend into foreign policy factionalism over Russia-Ukraine standoff</ref> One measure of the capability of a state to project power is the loss-of-strength gradient, until a culminating point is apparent to others, once an operation is underway.

A state might § compete in the gray zone just short of conflict, exercising its soft power, or hard power, in a bid for potential superpower.<ref>Matthew Brown (February 1, 2022) Putin says US, NATO have 'ignored' Russia's security demands on Ukraine: What we know</ref><ref name= "putin's1Feb2022Statement">Russia Insight (February 1, 2022) BREAKING! Putin: USA Is Using Ukraine As ‘Tool’ To Contain Russia 8:01 Video clip, English closed captions</ref>Template:RpTemplate:Efn While traditional measures of power projection typically focus on hard power assets (tanks, soldiers, aircraft, naval vessels, etc.), the use of soft power shows that power projection does not necessarily have to actively put military forces in combat, but only potentially.<ref name= joshi /> Assets for power projection can often serve dual uses, as the deployment of various countries' militaries during the humanitarian response to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake illustrates.

History

Early examples of power projection include Roman dominance of Europe and the wider Mediterranean basin: the ability to project power is tied to the ability to innovate and field such innovations. Roman engineering innovations such as machines (pile driver), concrete, aqueducts and modern roads provided the footing for an economic engine that powered a military that was unmatched in its day. Examples of Roman power projection include Julius Caesar constructing the Rhine bridge in 10 days to demonstrate the ability to march his 40,000 troops as he saw fit: the local inhabitants enjoyed the natural protection of the river and fled when this natural protection was overcome. Although Rome is far from the center of modern power, its influence can be seen in the architecture of modern capitols around the world (domes, arches, columns). The demonstration of an extraordinary innovative military capability will signal power and, when properly applied, terminate conflicts summarily.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

During the Ming treasure voyages in the 15th century, the Chinese treasure fleet was heavily militarized to exercise power projection around the Indian Ocean and thereby promote its interests.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref>

The modern ability to project power and exert influence on a global scale can be tied to innovations stemming from the Industrial Revolution and the associated modernizations in technology, communications, finance and bureaucracy; this finally allowed the state to create unprecedented amounts of wealth and to effectively marshal these resources to exert power over long distances.<ref>Ostrovsky, Max (2018). Military Globalization: Strategy, Geography, Weaponry, (New York: Edwin Mellen Press), p 2-3, https://archive.org/details/military-globalization/page/n9/mode/2up?view=theater</ref>

As the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, Britain was the first to utilize its industrial-technological power advantage to dominate rivals and greatly expand its global Empire throughout the 19th century. As a maritime power, the Royal Navy played a central role in providing Britain the strength and ability to dominate world trade and project power globally to further its interests. A worldwide system of naval bases and coaling stations, a large logistical bureaucracy to oversee shipbuilding, the supply of coal, food, water, and sailors, and an industrial base for the manufacture and technological enhancement of the fleet were among the essential ingredients for this capability. During the First Opium War (1839–1842), it was this capacity that enabled a British expeditionary force of 15 barracks ships, 4 steam-powered gunboats and 25 smaller boats with 4,000 marines to successfully defend its interests Template:Convert from the fleet's home port.<ref name="ReferenceA">Template:London Gazette</ref>

File:Magdala burning.jpg
An illustration of the burning of Magdala, an event which took place during the British Expedition to Abyssinia in 1868. The expedition came about as a result of Tewodros II of Ethiopia's imprisonment of European missionaries and officials, and demonstrated the power projection capabilities of the British Empire.

The Anglo-French expeditionary force sent to shore up the Ottoman Empire against Russian aggression during the Crimean War (1853–1856) was one of the earliest modern examples of a planned expeditionary power-projection campaign. It was the first campaign to use modern technology, including steam-powered warships and telegraph communications.Template:Citation needed

Another illustrative example of industrial power projection, was the British Expedition to Abyssinia in 1868 as a retaliation against Emperor Tewodros II of Ethiopia's imprisonment of several missionaries and British government representatives. The expeditionary force sent was a tremendous logistical and technological challenge at the time. Commanded by Lieutenant-General Sir Robert Napier of the Bombay Army, military intelligence was used to estimate the required size of the army and the difficulties of traversing the inhospitable terrain.Template:Citation needed

A force of over 30,000 was shipped from British India to Zula on the Red Sea on a fleet of more than 280 steam ships, while an advance detachment of engineers built a large port with two piers, warehouses and a lighthouse, and constructed a Template:Convert-long railway towards the interior.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref> A road was also built for the artillery to be moved along with the help of elephants. After three months of trekking, the British force repelled an Ethiopian attack and launched an artillery bombardment against the fortress of Magdala which led to its capitulation; Tewodros committed suicide.<ref>Rubenson, Survival, p. 268</ref><ref>Template:Cite book</ref>

In the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905, the Japanese destruction of the Imperial Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet demonstrated Imperial Russia's inability to project force in the East. This immediately diminished Russia's diplomatic sway in that region. At the same time, Russia's western armies became less credible, as mobilization exposed organizational flaws and threw the western armies into chaos. This led analysts in Europe, such as German chief of staff Count Alfred von Schlieffen, to conclude that Russia would prove inept at projecting force in Europe, thus demoting Russia in European diplomatic relations.

Many other actions can be considered projections of force. The 19th century is full of incidents such as the 1864 Shimonoseki campaign and the Boxer Rebellion. More recently, the Falklands War provided an example of the United Kingdom's ability to project force far from home. Other recent examples of power projection include the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. The ability of the U.S. Navy, the British Royal Navy, and the French Navy to deploy large numbers of ships for long periods of time away from home are notable projection abilities. See § Power projection capabilities.

The globalization of power projection was long avoided in the research with the subject of globalization mostly channeled to economic field, but in 2018 Historian Max Ostrovsky broke the path. In prehistory, he wrote, power was not projected behind entrance of a cave.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: p 270, https://archive.org/details/military-globalization/page/269/mode/2up?view=theater</ref> In history, empires and colonies projected power ever farther, creating world system c. 1900. World Wars were expressions of power projected on global scale.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: p I-II, https://archive.org/details/military-globalization/page/I/mode/2up?view=theater</ref>

The potential of power projection can be estimated mathematically by calculating the speed of transportation and communication relatively to the extent of contemporary power projection. Roman troops moved 50 km per day; today Globemasters move troops 20,000 km per day. The speed of communication in the largest Empire in Americas (Inca) was 20 km per hour (running man); today it moves with the speed of light. Multiplying the range of power projection in those empires by increase in the speed of transportation or communication, Ostrovsky estimated the present power projection potential to exceed the size of Earth multiple times.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: p 273-274, https://archive.org/details/military-globalization/page/273/mode/2up?view=theater</ref>

Elements

File:Gulf War C-5A reserve aircraft.jpg
The cargo hold and intercontinental flight capabilities of the C-5 Galaxy make it a major asset for deploying military equipment around the globe.

The U.S. Department of Defense defines power projection as the "ability of a nation to apply all or some of its elements of national power—political, economic, informational, or military—to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises, to contribute to deterrence, and to enhance regional stability".<ref name="dtic.mil">United States Department of Defense. J1-02: Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. [1] Template:Webarchive</ref><ref name= milleyOnThreatToUkraine>Jeremy Herb, Jennifer Hansler and Ellie Kaufman, CNN (28 January 2022) Top US general warns of 'horrific' outcome if Russian forces 'unleashed' on Ukraine Secretary of Defense Austin puts 8,500 US troops on alert for EUCOM engagement</ref>

As distance between a fighting force and its headquarters increases, command and control inevitably becomes more difficult. Modern-day power projection often employs high-tech communications and information technology to overcome these difficulties, a process sometimes described as the "Revolution in Military Affairs".

While a few long-range weapons such as the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and some unmanned combat aerial vehicles (drones) are capable of projecting deadly force in their own right, it is military logistics that is at the heart of power projection. The ability to integrate naval and air forces with land armies as part of joint warfare is a key aspect of effective power projection; airlift and sealift capabilities facilitate the deployment of soldiers and weapons to a distant theater of war.

The aircraft carrier strike group, strategic bomber, ballistic missile submarine, and strategic airlifter are all examples of power projection platforms. Military units designed to be light and mobile, such as airborne forces (paratroopers and air assault forces) and amphibious assault forces, are utilized in power projection. Forward basing is another method of power projection, which, by pre-positioning military units or stockpiles of arms at strategically located military bases outside a country's territory, reduces the time and distance needed to mobilize them.

Types

Scholars have disaggregated military power projection into nine different categories based on political goals and level of force. Four of these employ "soft" military power (securing sea lanes of communication, non-combatant evacuation, humanitarian response, and peacekeeping) and the rest are primarily concerned with "hard" military power (show the flag, compellence/deterrence, punishment, armed intervention, and conquest).<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> There is a § continuum in these capabilities.Template:Efn

Soft power

Template:Main Examples of soft power projection include:

Gray zone competition

This section has been split from US Army Futures Command § Other armies

The gray zone between cooperation and conflict<ref name= joshi >Shashank Joshi (29 Jan 2022) The technology of seeing and shooting your enemies</ref> has expanded due to the competition in power projection capabilities of the world's armies, as well as in the competition for economic power among the world's nations.<ref name= militaryVsEconomicPower> James Graham Military Power vs Economic Power in History Compares nations</ref><ref name= militaryVsEconomicPower2> James Graham Military Power vs Economic Power in History (Part 2) "[I]t is economic power that allows military power to be built up in the first place".</ref><ref name= postUkrInvasion> (7 Apr 2022) Russia facing most difficult situation in three decades, PM says after 6 weeks of economic sanctions, Mikhail Mishustin: "the current situation could be called the most difficult in three decades for Russia".</ref><ref name= keyUsPartners >BILL GREENWALT and EMILY COLETTA (23 Mar 2023) $1T in new defense spending pledged by key US partners in 1 year: Analysis "In the last year, 37 nations have combined to announce defense spending increases of over $1 trillion, to be spent during the next five years, according to a new American Enterprise Institute analysis"</ref><ref name= oib2028 >Jen Judson (28 Mar 2023) US Army eyes six-fold production boost of 155mm shells used in Ukraine Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity in 2023 to increase production from 14,000 per month, to 24,000 per month in 2023, to 85,000 155mm howitzer shells per month by 2028.</ref>

Template:Anchor The US, Russia, China, Britain, and France have renounced the use of nuclear weapons in 2022.<ref name= noNukes2022 >NBC News (4 Jan 2022) Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war</ref> However, in the face of threats of nuclear war (say from Russia, as threatened during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine),<ref name= lavrovRu >Reuters (25 Apr 2022) Russia's Lavrov: Do not underestimate threat of nuclear war </ref>Template:Efn NATO keeps about 100 B61 nuclear bombs in storage in Europe.<ref name= b61s>Dan Zak (25 March 2022) Meet the nuke the U.S. keeps in Europe, just waiting to not be used</ref><ref name= nuclEscMgt >Robbin Laird (11 Apr 2022) Time to relearn nuclear escalation management for the 21st century </ref><ref name= yermakov >Reuters (30 Apr 2022) Russia says risks of nuclear war must be kept to minimum -TASS </ref><ref name= russiaWouldVaporize >Gen. (USA Ret.) Barry R. McCaffrey (26 Apr 2022) "Putin's threat of nuclear weapons is horrendously unsettling" </ref>Template:Rp<ref name= dprkNds >Hyung-Jin Kim and Kim Tong-Hyung, Associated Press (28 Oct 2022) North Korea fires missiles toward sea as US warns over nukes "The Pentagon's National Defense Strategy report issued on Thursday stated that any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners will result in the end of [the DPRK (Kim)] regime".</ref><ref name= nds2022Uncl >PBS NewsHour (28 Oct 2022) WATCH LIVE: Defense Secretary Austin holds news briefing to announce 2022 National Defense Strategy Unclassified. Integrated deterrence— Strategy Across all domains</ref> Certain F-35As were certified to carry the B61 nuclear bomb on 12 October 2023.<ref name= f35aB61,12 >Michael Marrow (8 Mar 2024) EXCLUSIVE: F-35A officially certified to carry nuclear bomb B61-12</ref>

The British Army is investigating innovations, such as robots and drones,<ref name = ukPc22 >Jaspreet Gill (14 Nov 2022) How Project Convergence is informing British, Australian military modernization § Project Convergence 2022 </ref> including 70 technologies funded by the £800 million (US$1 billion) Defence Innovation Fund launched in 2016.<ref>Template:Citation</ref> Two hundred troops will engage in "surveillance, long-range, and precision targeting, enhanced mobility and the re-supply of forces, urban warfare and enhanced situational awareness".<ref name=MIT>Template:Citation</ref> The British Army is reducing size by about 10,000 troops as well, by 2025.<ref>Template:Citation</ref> The British Army will have Integrated Operating Concept (MDI—like MDO) for "gray zone" operations across domains, using a synthetic operating environment, with repeatable hard and soft strike capability.<ref name= mdiUk>Template:Citation</ref> The UK, Germany, and France respectively have established a joint command for space United Kingdom Space Command, a Space Situational Awareness Centre (Germany), and Commandement de l’espace (France).<ref name= vMachi >Vivienne Machi (13 Jul 2021) Germany establishes new military space command</ref><ref name= top15vendors >Rameesh Cheema (17 Dec 2022) 15 Most Advanced Countries in Military Technology Israel; Hellenic Republic; Brazil; Taiwan; Saudi Arabia; India; Italy; Republic of Türkiye; Japan; France

"By 2020 the Army's programs for modernization were now framed as a decades-long process of cooperation with allies and partners,<ref name=cooperation2020>Defender-Europe 20 videos, images and stories</ref><ref name=dettmer >Lt. Col. Travis Dettmer (9 February 2020) U.S. Army Futures and Concepts Center teaches Multi-Domain Operations to NATO Allied Land Command</ref> for competition with potential adversaries who historically have blurred the distinction between peace and war"<ref name=mccarthyUnendingCycle >Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. (January 13, 2020) Infinite Games & War By Other Means: Ryan McCarthy: "We must be engaged in constant competition, versus an episodic engagement strategy" —Secretary Ryan McCarthy</ref>—from: § Reorganization plan of the United States Army

  1. In 2020, one measure of § military power projection ranks the competition between the armies of the world (after the US Army, which is ranked atop this list).<ref name=globalFirepower >Greg Norman (22 Feb 2020) The 5 most powerful armies in the world</ref><ref name=davidNorquistRecap21 >The Hon. David Norquist, Deputy Secretary of Defense, DoD (10 Sep 2020) Closing Keynote: Day 2 Defense News Conference 2020 : Sept 9 - 10 22:00 minutes</ref>Template:Efn<ref name=heritageFound >Zamone Perez (18 Oct 2022) US military in decline, threats from China 'formidable', report says Heritage Foundation report for the case of 2 major wars (as opposed to 1.5 wars, rated as Favorable)</ref><ref name= dodResponse >C. Todd Lopez, DOD News (18 Oct 2022) U.S. Can Support Ukraine While Meeting Its Own Security Commitments </ref> The list of armies, a mixture of allies, partners, and competitors is estimated to be:
  2. Template:AnchorTemplate:AnchorRussia<ref name=globalFirepower/> jammed the GPS signal during NATO exercises in November 2018.<ref name=2018JamGps>(4 November 2018) Russia Jammed GPS During Major NATO Military Exercise With US Troops </ref><ref name=antiJamGPS >Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. (6 June 2019) Army Fields Anti-Jam GPS In Germany This Fall</ref><ref name=jamUsDrones>Russia has figured out how to jam U.S. drones in Syria, officials say</ref>Template:Efn In 2014 the DoD's research and engineering chief Alan Shaffer warned that the 'US lost dominance of the electromagnetic spectrum'<ref name=alanShaffer2014/> (EMS), in part due to the US government selloff of EMS radio frequencies, and also due in part to the proliferation of digital technologies which allow for low-cost jammers.<ref name=alanShaffer2014 >Sydney Freedberg, Jr. (3 September 2014) US Has Lost ‘Dominance In Electromagnetic Spectrum’: Shaffer</ref> (See: meaconing)<ref name=kosmos2542 >Stephen Clark (25 November 2019) Russia launches space surveillance satellite Kosmos 2542, in a polar orbit—"[To] monitor the condition of other Russian satellites in orbit."</ref><ref name=cosmos2542 >Joseph Trevithick (30 January 2020) A Russian "Inspector" Spacecraft Now Appears To Be Shadowing An American Spy Satellite USA 245 is a KH-11 series satellite; Cosmos 2542 is now tailing the USA 245's movements with a precision of 150 to 300 kilometers. See Hall thruster</ref> General Valery Gerasimov advocates hybrid warfare, a "blend of political, economic and military power to bear against adversaries".<ref >Andrew E. Kramer (2 March 2019) Russian General Pitches ‘Information’ Operations as a Form of War</ref><ref name=aspirational >Paul McCleary (30 May 2019) Dunford: Leaders Mull First NATO Strategy In Decades</ref><ref name=ruLibya > Neil Hauer (26 February 2020) Russia may have met its match in Libya Is unable to tip the balance, as it has in Syria. So Russia is escalating its involvement.</ref> Russia took Crimea without firing a shot.<ref name= putinPlanner >Andrew Goodman (26 Apr 2022) Putin the Planner Worked alongside Putin when he was Deputy Mayor of St. Petersberg. "Whatever happens on the ground now, there is good reason to think that Putin will continue to pursue a solution on his terms as long as he remains in power".</ref><ref name= postUkrInvasion/>Template:Efn<ref name= tinkov >Clare Sebastian and Chris Liakos, CNN (20 Apr 2022) Russian billionaire Oleg Tinkov blasts Putin's 'insane war' in Ukraine</ref><ref name=nonKinetic >Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. (21 April 2020) COVID-19: Army Futures Command Takes Wargames Online </ref>Template:Anchor In April 2020 Russia tested an anti-satellite system for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.<ref name=spaceArmsRace >Aaron Bateman (22 May 2020) As Russia stalks US satellites, a space arms race may be heating up</ref> On 15 November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite test destroyed its Kosmos 1408, endangering its own cosmonauts on the International Space Station, and other satellites in low earth orbit.<ref name= asat15Nov2021 >Theresa Hitchens (15 November 2021) Russian suspected ground-launched ASAT test scatters dangerous debris through LEO
New York Times (6 Dec 2021) On Ukrainian Front, Grinding War and Weary Anticipation of Invasion Map of "Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces"</ref><ref name= UkraineMap>New York Times Ukraine map (7 Jan 2022) How Russia's Military is Positioned To Threaten Ukraine</ref> As of 18 February 2022 there were up to 190,000 troops along Ukraine's borders;<ref name= schogolSzoldra >Jeff Schogol, Paul Szoldra (21 Feb 2022) Moscow orders Russian troops into Ukraine</ref> after recognizing the separatist states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Moscow is moving troops over the border of Russia into the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and establishing military bases there.<ref name= basesInDonetskLuhansk >Reuters (22 February 2022) Putin gets green light to deploy troops to eastern Ukraine</ref> This troop movement triggered sanctions on five Russian banks and three individuals, on 22 February 2022.<ref name= riley >Charles Riley (22 February 2022) The sanctions that could really hurt Russia</ref><ref name= schogolSzoldra /><ref name= marketReaction >Charles Riley  (22 February 2022) Russia is already paying a hefty financial price for its aggression</ref>Template:Efn (See 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine which began 24 February 2022)
  2. Template:AnchorChina<ref name=globalFirepower/>—RAND simulations show Blue losses.<ref name=7mar2019Aps >Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. (7 March 2019) US ‘Gets Its Ass Handed To It’ In Wargames: Here's A $24 Billion Fix Army prepositioned stocks (APS) vulnerability</ref> Six of the top 15 defense companies in the world are now Chinese, in 2019 for the first time.<ref>Defense News (July 2019) Top 100 for 2019</ref> The competition with China was shaped in the decade 2010–2020, according to David Kriete.<ref name=KrieteStratcom >Theresa Hitchens (31 July 2019) Competition (With China) IS The New Deterrence, US Military Leaders Say Vice Adm. David Kriete of US Strategic Command</ref><ref name=hypersonicNuclearWeapon>aj.com (1 Oct 2019) China Confirms New Hypersonic Nuclear Missile On 70th Anniversary DF-17
  2. Template:AnchorIndia: faces Pakistan;<ref name=globalFirepower/><ref name= dwAfghan >Deutsche Welle DW News (16 Aug 2021) Taliban back in power: What does it mean for the Indo-Pacific region?</ref><ref name=afghanRareEarths /> Pakistan can be supplied with Turkey's drones (such as the Bayraktar TB2), which were used with great effect by Azerbaijan against Armenian tanks and Armenian air defense<ref name=turkishDrones >The Print Team (14 Nov 2020) How drones helped Azerbaijan defeat Armenia, and the implications for future modern warfare</ref> during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. In 2010 China deployed 11,000 troops in Gilgit, near Kashmir.<ref name= gilgit >Indian Express (28 Aug 2010) China deploys 11,000 troops in Gilgit area in Occupied Kashmir</ref>
  3. Template:AnchorJapan: faces North Korea;<ref name=globalFirepower/><ref name=sixEyes >Daishi Abe and Rieko Miki

(14 Aug 2020) Japan wants de facto 'Six Eyes' intelligence status: defense chief

Applications of power projection

The Texas National Security Review projects five scenarios for the global economy:<ref name= tnsr>Aaron L. Friedberg (Winter 2021/2022) The Growing Rivalry Between America and China and the Future of Globalization</ref>

  1. Reglobalization as in the 1980s
  2. Deglobalization away from the trends of the 2000s<ref name= pZ >The Changing Order (9 Feb 2022) —Peter Zeihan: How Deglobalization Works, Full Webinar video 58:24</ref><ref name= globDefSpend >FORECAST INTERNATIONAL STAFF, FORECAST INTERNATIONAL (18 Apr 2024) Global defense spending jumped in 2023</ref>
  3. Globalization with Chinese characteristics<ref name= zhRuEconCoop/>
  4. Regional blocs with partially closed trading<ref name= russGrandStrategy >Michael Kofman (Apr 2019) Drivers of Russian Grand Strategy</ref>Template:Efn<ref name= zhRuEconCoop/><ref name= globDefSpend /><ref name= deDollarization >Akhil Ramesh ( Are we witnessing the beginning of de-dollarization? </ref>Template:Efn<ref name= caspianRpt >Caspian Report (14 Jun 2022) How Russia could collapse (again) Local republics could blockade other republics of the Federation to preserve local stability, which appears to be the choice of the people.</ref><ref name= cSebastian >Clare Sebastian, CNN (28 Aug 2022) 'Slower burn.' Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline has started Russia now selling oil to Asia, six months after sanctions by West.</ref>
  5. Shared strategic interests and common political values, which Friedberg judges will be the choice of the Western bloc<ref name= tnsr/> and its direction for power projection.Template:Efn

Hard power

Template:Main Examples of hard power projection include:

</ref><ref name= shadowWar >Douglas London, Foreign Affairs (11 Apr 2022) A Shadow War Against Putin </ref> See Gray zone competition for context

  1. Fuel and Ammunition Stockpiles
  2. Cyberwarfare
  3. GPS Jamming, Spoofing
  4. Attack submarine sorties
  5. Electronic warfare
  6. Social media blackout
  7. Little green men Events
  8. Drone reconnaissance</ref><ref name= warningSigns >Jeremy Herb, Katie Bo Lillis, Barbara Starr and Sean Lyngaas, CNN (10 February 2022) What the US is watching that could signal Russia is launching an invasion of Ukraine</ref><ref name= 70percentLevel >Phil Stewart and Humeyra Pamuk, Reuters (5 Feb 2022) Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion - U.S. officials</ref> In 2022 Michael Kofman projected that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be eastward via Donbas, northward from Crimea, and up the Dnieper river to encircle Ukraine's capital Kyiv,<ref name= kofman>Michael Kofman (24 Jan 2022) Putin's Wager in Russia's Standoff With the West</ref><ref name= russiaCouldInvadeInDays>Karen DeYoung, Dan Lamothe, John Hudson and Shane Harris. The Washington Post (5 Feb 2022) Russia could invade Ukraine within days, causing up to 50,000 civilian deaths, U.S. intelligence assessments find</ref> with a political takeover of Ukraine a likely objective of Russian leadership.<ref name= leadersPutin/><ref name= caspianReport/><ref name= nytMaps >The New York Times (24 Feb 2022) Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine</ref><ref name= treismanOpinion >Daniel Treisman (22 Feb 2022) Putin isn't likely to stop here</ref><ref name= whyAndWhat >Paul Kirby (23 Feb 2022) Why is Russia ordering troops into Ukraine and what does Putin want?</ref><ref name= ukraineDraftingReservists18to60 >Reuters (23 Feb 2022) Ukraine starts drafting reservists aged 18–60 after president's order</ref><ref name= harringtonMcCabe >Jake Harrington and Riley McCabe (1 Feb 2022) Keeping Pace in the Gray ZOne: Three Recommendations for the U.S. Intelligence Community</ref><ref name= 23feb2022 /><ref name= russiaSeeksRegimeChange >Michael Kofman (23 Feb 2022) Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia's armed forces, explains why the Kremlin will seek regime change in Ukraine</ref> However, in lieu of a political takeover,<ref name= putinAbsentG20 /> a decapitation strike is a possible tactic.<ref name= insinna>Valerie Insinna (24 Feb 2022) Russia aiming to ‘decapitate’ Ukrainian government: US official</ref><ref name= breakingDefense>Valerie Insinna (11 March 2022 at 12:35 PM) Top American generals on three key lessons learned from Ukraine Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, and Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark Kelly: 1) Humble “Legacy” Technology Can Still Play a Role Against a Sophisticated Adversary, 2) The Human Element (Still) Matters, and 3) Logistics Are Not Optional</ref><ref name=ZYaohCWtyyA >Sky News (28 Apr 2022) Can Russia be pushed out of Ukraine entirely? Retired Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell 2:25/4:08 use 155mm howitzers, coupled with counterfire radar (i.e. TPQ-53) against Russian artillery</ref><ref name= picheta>Rob Picheta (29 Jan 2022) How a Russian invasion of Ukraine would reverberate around the world</ref><ref name= MsfUiTJv2lE>Frontline (Mar 15, 2022) Putin's Road to War (full documentary) 53:18</ref> Alexander Vindman has projected a path for Ukraine to retake Crimea.<ref name= vindmanCrimea >Francis P. Sempa (7 Feb 2023) Alexander Vindman and the Road to World War III</ref> By 5 April 2023 Ukraine signalled that it might entertain talks with Russia if the Ukrainian counteroffensive reached the border of Crimea.<ref name= kyivTalksOnCrimea >Christopher Miller in Kyiv and Felicia Schwartz in Washington (5 Apr 2023) Ukraine 'ready' to talk to Russia on Crimea if counteroffensive succeeds </ref><ref name= 3to5yearsOut >Barry Rosenberg (20 July 2023) 3-to-5 years from now is the danger time when the US could face both China and Russia Justin Bronk RUSI(UK) US/Europe power projection</ref>

Power projection capabilities

Power projection capabilities
Country Bloc/Group Maritime
force 		Helicopter/aircraft
carriers active 		Overseas
bases 		Troops deployed
in operations abroad 		Nuclear
deterrence
Template:AUS G20/MIKTA/FVEY/Commonwealth/APEC/ANZUS/MNNA/QUAD/AUKUS Green-water navy Template:Sort 1 2900<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/UNASUR/UFC/Mercosur/MNNA/Rio Green-water navy 0 2 1050<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org">Providing for Peacekeeping: Country Profiles</ref> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry D-8/BIMSTEC/SAARC/IMCTC/Commonwealth 0 1 6417<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry EU/NATO 0 0 710<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Nuclear sharing
Template:Flagcountry G20/G4/BRICS/UNASUR/Mercosur/MNNA/Rio Green-water navy Template:Sort 0 273<ref name="peacekeeping.un.org">Template:Cite web</ref> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/G7/NATO/APEC/FVEY/OIF/Commonwealth/UFC Green-water navy 0 0 3600<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry P5/G20/BRICS/APEC/SCO Blue-water navy Template:Sort 1 11,775<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/><ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Template:Y
Template:Flagcountry African Union/Arab League/D-8/MNNA Template:Sort 0 3760<ref name="peacekeeping.un.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry P5/G20/G7/EU/NATO/Quint Blue-water navy Template:Sort 10 10,300<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Template:Y
Template:Flagcountry G20/G7/G4/EU/NATO/Quint Green-water navy 0 1 3597<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Nuclear sharing
Template:Flagcountry G20/BRICS/G4/Commonwealth/SAARC/SCO/QUAD Blue-water navy Template:Sort 6 6430<ref name="peacekeeping.un.org"/> Template:Y
Template:Flagcountry ECO/OPEC/GECF/SCO/BRICS/D-8 Green-water navy 0 3 Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/ASEAN/APEC/MIKTA/BRICS/D-8/NAM/EAS/OIC 0 0 3064<ref name="peacekeeping.un.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/G7/UFC/EU/NATO/Quint Blue-water navy Template:Sort 2 6000<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Nuclear sharing
Template:Flagcountry G20/G7/G4/APEC/MNNA/QUAD Green-water navy Template:Sort 1 278<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/MIKTA/APEC/UFC 0 0 Template:N
Template:Flagcountry EU/NATO Green-water navy 0 0 650<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Nuclear sharing
Template:Flagcountry African Union/OPEC/Commonwealth/D-8 0 0 2190<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry D-8/ UFC/SCO/MNNA/SAARC/IMCTC/Commonwealth 0 1 5264<ref name="peacekeeping.un.org"/> Template:Y
Template:Flagcountry EU/NATO 0 0 3000<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry P5/G20/BRICS/SCO/EAEU/APEC/CSTO/CIS Blue-water navy Template:Sort 10 48,500<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Template:Y
Template:Flagcountry G20/OPEC/OIC/GCC/Arab League 0 0 Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/BRICS/AU/Commonwealth 0 0 1171<ref name="peacekeeping.un.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/APEC/MIKTA/UFC/MNNA Green-water navy Template:Sort 0 1008<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry EU/NATO/UFC Green-water navy Template:Sort 0 1500<ref name="providingforpeacekeeping.org"/> Template:N
Template:Flagcountry G20/D-8/MIKTA/NATO/UFC Green-water navy Template:Sort 12<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> 60,000+<ref name="ReferenceB">Template:Cite web</ref> Nuclear sharing
Template:Flagcountry P5/G20/G7/FVEY/NATO/Quint/FPDA/Commonwealth/AUKUS Blue-water navy Template:Sort 15 15,000 Template:Y
Template:Flagcountry P5/G20/G7/NATO/APEC/FVEY/Quint/ANZUS/QUAD/Rio/AUKUS Blue-water navy Template:Sort 38 130,000 Template:Y

See also

Notes

Template:Notelist

References

Template:Reflist

Template:Commons category

Template:International power

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