Youngest Toba eruption

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The Toba eruption (also called the Toba supereruption and the Youngest Toba eruption) was a supervolcanic eruption that occurred around 74,000 years ago, during the Late Pleistocene,<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> at the site of present-day Lake Toba, in Sumatra, Indonesia. It was the last in a series of at least four caldera-forming eruptions there, the earlier known caldera having formed about 1.2 million years ago.<ref name="OregonState">Stratigraphy of the Toba Tuffs and the evolution of the Toba Caldera Complex, Sumatra, Indonesia</ref> This, the last eruption, had an estimated volcanic explosivity index of 8, making it the largest known explosive volcanic eruption in the Quaternary, and one of the largest known explosive eruptions in the Earth's history.

Eruption

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Location of Lake Toba shown in red on map

Chronology of the Toba eruption

The exact date of the eruption is unknown, but the pattern of ash deposits suggests that it occurred during the northern summer because only the summer monsoon could have deposited Toba ashfall in the South China Sea.<ref name=":11" /> The eruption lasted perhaps 9 to 14 days.<ref name="Toba1978">Template:Cite journal</ref> The most recent two high-precision argon–argon datings dated the eruption to 73,880 ± 320<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> and 73,700 ± 300 years ago.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Five distinct magma bodies were activated within a few centuries before the eruption.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> The eruption commenced with small and limited air-fall and was directly followed by the main phase of ignimbrite flows.<ref name=":10" /> The ignimbrite phase is characterized by low eruption fountain,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> but co-ignimbrite column developed on top of pyroclastic flows reached a height of Template:Cvt.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Petrological constraints on sulfur emission yielded a wide range from Template:Val to Template:Val, depending on the existence of separate sulfur gas in the Toba magma chamber.<ref name=":9">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Citation</ref> The lower end of the estimate is due to the low solubility of sulfur in the magma.<ref name=":9" /> Ice core records estimate the sulfur emission on the order of Template:Val.<ref name=":15" />

Effects of the eruption

Bill Rose and Craig Chesner of Michigan Technological University have estimated that the total amount of material released in the eruption was at least Template:Convert<ref name=USGS>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>—about Template:Convert of ignimbrite that flowed over the ground, and approximately Template:Convert that fell as ash mostly to the west. However, as more outcrops become available, the most recent estimate of eruptive volume is Template:Cvt dense-rock equivalent (DRE), of which Template:Cvt was deposited as ash fall and Template:Cvt as ignimbrite, making this eruption the largest during the Quaternary period.<ref name=":5">Template:Cite journal</ref> Previous volume estimates have ranged from Template:Cvt<ref name="Toba1978" /> to Template:Cvt.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Inside the caldera, the maximum thickness of pyroclastic flows is over Template:Cvt.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> The outflow sheet originally covered an area of Template:Cvt with thickness nearly Template:Cvt, likely reaching into the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca.<ref name=":10">Template:Cite journal</ref> The air-fall of this eruption blanketed the Indian subcontinent in a layer of Template:Cvt ash,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> the Arabian Sea in Template:Cvt,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> the South China Sea in Template:Cvt,<ref name=":11">Template:Cite journal</ref> and Central Indian Ocean Basin in Template:Cvt.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Its horizon of ashfall covered an area of more than Template:Cvt in Template:Cvt or more thickness (~7.5% of the Earth's surface).<ref name=":5" /> In Sub-Saharan Africa, microscopic glass shards from this eruption are also discovered on the south coast of South Africa,<ref name=":8">Template:Cite journal</ref> in the lowlands of northwest Ethiopia,<ref name=":16">Template:Cite journal</ref> in Lake Malawi,<ref name=":3">Template:Cite journal</ref> and in Lake Chala.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> In South China, Toba tephras is found in Huguangyan Maar Lake.<ref>Guo, Z., Liu, J., Chu, G., & JFW, N. (2002). Composition and origin of tephra of the Huguangyan Maar Lake. Quaternary Sciences, 22(3), 266–272.</ref>

The subsequent collapse formed a caldera that filled with water, creating Lake Toba. The island in the center of the lake is formed by a resurgent dome.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Climatic effects

Climate at the time of the eruption

Greenland stadial 20 (GS20) is a millennium-long cold event in the north Atlantic ocean that started around the time of the Toba eruption.<ref name=":12">Template:Cite journal</ref> The timing of the initiation of GS20 is dated to 74.0–74.2 kyr, and the entire event lasted about 1,500 years.<ref name=":12" /><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> It is the stadial part of Dansgaard–Oeschger event 20 (DO20), commonly explained by an abrupt reduction in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Weaker AMOC caused warming in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and this asynchrony is known as bipolar seesaw.<ref name=":13">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> The start of the GS20 cooling event corresponds to the start of the Antarctic Isotope Maxima 19 (AIM19) warming event.<ref name=":6">Template:Cite journal</ref> GS20 was associated with iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic, thus it was also named Heinrich stadial 7a.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Heinrich events tend to be longer, colder and with weaker AMOC in the Atlantic ocean than other DO stadials.<ref name=":13" /> From 74 to 58 kyr, Earth transitioned from interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 to glacial MIS 4, experiencing cooling and glacial expansion.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> This transition is a part of the Pleistocene interglacial-glacial cycle driven by variations in the Earth's orbit.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Ocean temperatures cooled by Template:Convert.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Sea level fell Template:Convert.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Northern Hemisphere ice sheets embarked on significant expansion and surpassed the extent of the Last Glacial Maximum in eastern Europe, Northeast Asia and the North American Cordillera.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Southern Hemisphere glaciation grew to its maximum extent during MIS 4.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Australasia, Africa and Europe were characterized by increasingly cold and arid environments.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

Possible climate records of the eruption

While the Toba eruption occurred in the backdrop of the rapid climate transitions of GS20 and MIS 4, triggered by changes in ocean currents and insolation,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name=":12" /> whether the eruption played any role in accelerating these events is much more heavily debated. South China Sea marine records of climate, sampled at every centennial interval, shows Template:Convert cooling above the Toba ash layer for a thousand years but the authors concede that it may just be GS20.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Arabian Sea marine records confirm that Toba ash occurred after the onset of GS20 but also that GS20 is not colder than GS21 in the records, from which authors conclude that the eruption did not intensify GS20 cooling.<ref name=":4">Template:Cite journal</ref> Dense sampling of environmental records, at every 6–9-year interval, in Lake Malawi, show no cooling-induced change in lake ecology and in grassy woodlands after the deposition of Toba ash,<ref name=":3" /><ref name=":14">Template:Cite journal</ref> but cooling-forced aridity killed high-elevation afromontane forests.<ref name=":1" /> The Lake Malawi studies concluded that the environmental effects of the eruption were mild and limited to less than a decade in East Africa,<ref name=":14" /> but these studies are questioned due to sediment mixing which would have diminished the cooling signal.<ref name=":22">Ambrose, S. H. (2019), "Chapter 6 chronological calibration of Late Pleistocene Modern Human dispersals, climate change and Archaeology with Geochemical Isochrons", in Sahle, Yonatan; Reyes-Centeno, Hugo; Bentz, Christian (eds.), Modern Human Origins and Dispersal, Kerns Verlag, pp. 171–213</ref> Environmental records from a Middle Stone Age site in Ethiopia, however, show that a severe drought occurred concurrently with the Toba ash layer, which altered early human foraging behaviours.<ref name=":16" />

Toba ash records have not been identified in ice core samples. However, four sulfate events in the ice strata are proposed to represent the deposition of aerosols from the Toba eruption.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name=":6" /><ref name=":7">Template:Cite journal</ref> One sulfate event at 73.75–74.16 kyr, which has all the characteristics of the Toba eruption, is among the largest sulfate loadings that have ever been identified.<ref name=":7" /> In the ice core records, GS20 cooling was already underway by the time of sulfate deposition; however, a 110-year period of accelerated cooling followed this sulfate event. The authors interpret this acceleration as AMOC weakened by the Toba eruption.<ref name=":15">Template:Cite journal</ref>

Climate modeling

The modeled climate effects of the Toba eruption hinges on the mass of sulfurous gases and aerosol microphysical processes. Modeling on an emission of Template:Val of sulfur, which is 100 times the 1991 Pinatubo sulphur, volcanic winter has a maximum global mean cooling of Template:Cvt and returns gradually within the range of natural variability 5 years after the eruption. An initiation of a 1,000-year cold period or ice age is not supported by the model.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Two other emission scenarios, Template:Val and Template:Val, were investigated using state-of-art simulations provided by the Community Earth System Model. Maximum global mean cooling was Template:Cvt for the lower emission and Template:Cvt for the higher emission scenarios. A strong decrease in precipitation occurs in the high emission scenario. Negative temperature anomalies return to less than Template:Cvt within 3 and 6 years for each emission scenario after the eruption.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> But so far no model can simulate aerosol microphysical processes with sufficient accuracy, empirical constraints from historical eruptions suggest that aerosol size may substantially reduce the magnitude of cooling to less than Template:Cvt, no matter how much sulfur is emitted.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

Toba catastrophe theory

The Toba catastrophe theory holds that the eruption caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1,000-year-long cooling episode, resulting in a genetic bottleneck in humans.Template:Sfn<ref>Michael R. Rampino, Stanley H. Ambrose, 2000. "Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden: The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash", Volcanic Hazards and Disasters in Human Antiquity, Floyd W. McCoy, Grant Heiken</ref> However, some physical evidence disputes the association with the millennium-long cold event and genetic bottleneck, and some consider the theory disproven.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref name=":1">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

History

In 1972, an analysis of human hemoglobins found very few variants, and to account for this low frequency of variation, the human population must have been as low as a few thousand until very recently.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> More genetic studies confirmed an effective population on the order of 10,000 for much of human history.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Subsequent research on the differences in human mitochondrial DNA sequences dated a rapid growth from a small effective population size of 1,000 to 10,000, sometime between 35 and 65 kyr ago.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Recent research shows the extent of climate change was much smaller than believed by proponents of the theory.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

In 1993, science journalist Ann Gibbons posited that population growth was suppressed by the cold climate of the last Pleistocene Ice Age, possibly exacerbated by the Toba super-eruption which at the time was dated to between 73 and 75 kyr near the beginning of glacial period MIS 4.<ref name="Toba1978" /><ref name=":0">Template:Cite journal</ref> The subsequent explosive human expansion was believed to be the result of the end of the ice age.Template:Sfn Geologist Michael R. Rampino of New York University and volcanologist Stephen Self of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa supported her theory.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> In 1998, anthropologist Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign used coalescence evidence of some genes<ref>Including mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome DNA and some nuclear genes</ref> to hypothesize that the Toba eruption caused a human population crash to only a few thousand surviving individuals, and the subsequent recovery was suppressed by the global glacial condition of MIS 4 until the climate eventually transitioned to the warmer condition of MIS 3 about 60,000 years ago, during which rapid human population expansion occurred.Template:Sfn

Possible effects on Homo

At least two other Homo lineages, H. neanderthalensis and Denisovans, survived the Toba eruption and subsequent MIS 4 ice age, as their latest presence is dated to ca. 40 kyr,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> and ca. 55 kyr.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Other lineages, including H. floresiensis,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> H. luzonensis,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> and Penghu 1,<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> may have also survived through the eruption. More recently, reconstructions of human demographic history using whole-genome sequencing<ref name=":17">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name=":18">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name=":23">Template:Cite journal</ref> and discoveries of archaeological cultures within the Toba ash layer<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name=":8" /><ref name=":16" /> add further light to how humans had fared during the eruption and the following GS20 and MIS 4 ice age.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Human demographic history

Recent analyses apply Markov models to the complete set of genetic material to infer human population history.<ref name=":19">Template:Cite journal</ref><ref name=":20">Template:Cite journal</ref> In non-African populations, studies recover a long-term steep decline in numbers starting 200 kyr and reaching the lowest point around 40–60 kyr.<ref name=":19" /><ref name=":17" /> During this bottleneck non-African populations experienced 5- to 15-fold reduction,<ref name=":21">Template:Cite journal</ref> with an effective population size of only 1,000–3,000 individuals by 50 kyr, consistent with the earliest mtDNA studies.<ref name=":17" /><ref name=":18" /><ref name=":20" /> This severe non-African contraction is consistent with a founder effect caused by Out-of-Africa dispersal. As a small group with a size of a few thousand people migrated from the African continent into the Near East, the drastic reduction in numbers imprinted on non-African genomic diversity.<ref name=":17" /><ref name=":21" /><ref name=":24">Template:Cite journal</ref> Genetic analysis identified 56 selective sweeps related to cold adaptations in non-African populations, of which 31 sweeps occurred during 72–97 kyr. This event of closely timed selections is named the "Arabian Standstill" and may have been caused by the severe cold arid conditions from the onset of MIS 4 and exacerbated by the Toba super-eruption.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

African populations experienced a slightly earlier, milder bottleneck and recovered earlier.<ref name=":20" /><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Estimated effective population size based on samples from the Luhya and Maasai people attained their lowest numbers around 70–80 kyr, while those from the Yoruba people reached a nadir around 50 kyr,<ref name=":20" /> though the long-term declining trend already started before 200 kyr.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> The estimated remaining effective population sizes are around 10,000 individuals, larger than the estimated non-African size during their bottleneck.<ref name=":17" /><ref name=":18" /><ref name=":23" /> Unlike the non-African populations, there is no consensus as to the cause of the African bottleneck. Proposed causes include climatic deterioration (from MIS 5, Toba eruption, GS20 and/or MIS 4),<ref name=":22" /><ref name=":24" /><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> reduction in substructure across African populations, and founder effects from the dispersal within Africa.<ref name=":24" />

Earlier genetic analysis of Alu sequences across the entire human genome has shown that the effective human population size was less than 26,000 at 1.2 million years ago; possible explanations for the low population size of human ancestors may include repeated population crashes or periodic replacement events from competing Homo subspecies.<ref>See Template:Harvnb, p.6; Template:Harvnb.</ref> Whole-genome analysis similarly recovers very low African population sizes around 1 million years ago.<ref name=":18" /><ref name=":23" /><ref name=":25">Template:Cite journal</ref> This 1 million year old bottleneck is thought to have been caused by severe ice age MIS 22 which marked the mid-Pleistocene climate transition with widespread aridity across Africa.<ref name=":25" /><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

Archaeological studies

Other research has cast doubt on an association between the Toba Caldera Complex and a genetic bottleneck. For example, ancient stone tools at the Jurreru Valley in southern India (Andhra Pradesh) were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers, suggesting that the dust clouds from the eruption did not wipe out this local population.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref>Template:Cite journal</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> However, another site in India, the Middle Son Valley (in Madhya Pradesh), exhibits evidence of a major population decline and it has been suggested that the abundant springs of the Jurreru Valley may have offered its inhabitants unique protection.<ref>Jones, Sacha. (2012). Local- and Regional-scale Impacts of the ~74 ka Toba Supervolcanic Eruption on Hominin Population and Habitats in India. Quaternary International 258: 100-118.</ref> At the Jurreru Valley in southern India, Middle Paleolithic stone tools below the Toba ash layer are dated by OSL to Template:Val, while the age of stone tools above the ash layer is constrained to be no older than 55 kyr. This age gap is suspected to be due to the removal of post-eruption sediments or decimation of the local population until re-occupation at 55 kyr.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Additional archaeological evidence from southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local populations, causing the authors of the study to conclude, "many forms of life survived the supereruption, contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic bottlenecks".<ref>See also {{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> However, some researchers have questioned the techniques utilized to date artifacts to the period subsequent to the Toba supervolcano.<ref>National Geographic- Did early humans in India survive a supervolcano?</ref> The Toba Catastrophe also coincides with the disappearance of the Skhul and Qafzeh hominins.<ref> Shea, John. (2008). Transitions or Turnovers? Climatically-forced Extinctions of Homo sapiens and Neanderthals in the East Mediterranean Levant. Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 2253–2270.</ref> Evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South Asia, and some researchers have suggested that the Toba eruption may have forced humans to adopt new adaptive strategies, which may have permitted them to replace Neanderthals and "other archaic human species".<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref>Template:Harvnb.</ref>

Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals

Some evidence indicates population crashes of other animals after the Toba eruption. The populations of the Eastern African chimpanzee,<ref>Template:Harvnb</ref> Bornean orangutan,<ref>Template:Harvnb</ref> central Indian macaque,<ref>Template:Harvnb</ref> gorillas<ref>Template:Cite book</ref> cheetah and tiger,<ref>Template:Harvnb</ref> all expanded from very small populations around 70,000–55,000 years ago.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

See also

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Citations and notes

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References

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Further reading

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