1988 Manitoba general election
Template:Short description Template:Use mdy dates Template:More citations needed Template:Infobox election The 1988 Manitoba general election was held on April 26, 1988<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Manitoba, Canada. It resulted in a minority government. The Progressive Conservative Party won 25 seats, against 20 for the Liberal Party and 12 for the New Democratic Party. This is the most recent election to have resulted in a minority government in Manitoba, and is the only election between 1966 and 2023 in which the NDP finished third in the seat total.
Background
The election was called unexpectedly in early 1988, after disgruntled NDP backbencher Jim Walding voted against his government's budget on March 9, 1988. With former cabinet minister Laurent Desjardins having essentially abandoned his seat earlier in the year, the Legislative Assembly was almost evenly divided. Walding's defection thus resulted in Howard Pawley's NDP government being defeated, 28 votes to 27. As the budget vote was a confidence measure, the Pawley ministry was forced to resign and call new elections two years ahead of schedule.
Popular support for the NDP was at an historically low level when the election was called, due to soaring Autopac rates and a taxpayer-funded bailout of the Manitoba Telephone System. The Pawley government's support for the Meech Lake Accord was also unpopular in some circles. One internal poll had the party at only 6% support, and there were concerns that they could be reduced to only two or three seats in the 57-seat legislature. Pawley resigned as party leader on the day after the budget defeat, and Urban Affairs Minister Gary Doer narrowly defeated Agriculture Minister Leonard Harapiak to replace him at a party convention held during the campaign.<ref name="isbn0-8020-8753-1">Template:Cite book</ref><ref name="isbn0-88755-704-X">Template:Cite book</ref>
Pawley himself announced he would enter federal politics and did not seek re-election in his own seat. In an unusual arrangement, the outgoing premier remained in office until after the election. Even after Doer's selection, the consensus was that the NDP would not be reelected. However, they managed to stabilize at around 20% in the polls. Many traditional NDP voters, especially in the city of Winnipeg, abandoned the party to support the Liberals in this cycle.
Issues
The Progressive Conservatives, led by Gary Filmon, ran on a platform of saving revenue by selling public corporations, including ManOil and Manfor. Filmon also promised to scrap the province's Public Investment Corporation entirely. The Liberals also promised more prudent fiscal management, but did not propose to sell these crown corporations. Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs was also known as a prominent opponent of the Meech Lake Accord.
The NDP, which retained a support base in the north of the province, promised to create northern training centres in Thompson and The Pas.
The national abortion debate also surfaced in this campaign, although none of the major parties put forward a clear position on the issue. Although Filmon was personally anti-abortion, the Progressive Conservatives were unwilling to propose specific action on the subject, and withdrew from an early promise to close Henry Morgentaler's private clinic. The Liberals favoured counselling, including a focus on adoption. The NDP emphasized prevention and support services for poorer women who choose to continue their pregnancies.
Campaign
The Progressive Conservatives entered the election with a significant lead in the polls, but saw their support undercut by the Liberals in the campaign's final weeks. Before the party leaders' debate, a Winnipeg Free Press poll indicated that 40% of voters considered Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs as the best choice for Premier, with 24% favouring Progressive Conservative Gary Filmon and 19% favouring NDP leader Gary Doer. 17% were undecided.
Carstairs performed well in the leaders' debate, and did much to improve her party's popularity as the campaign reached its end.
Results
The Liberal Party performed well in Winnipeg, winning 19 out of 29 seats in that city and picking up ridings from both the NDP and Tories, and nearly managed to oust Filmon in his riding of Tuxedo, in south-central Winnipeg. The party won only one seat outside Winnipeg, however—Pawley's former seat of Selkirk, centred on the community of the same name just north of Winnipeg. It was and still is the party's best showing in an election since the then Liberal-Progressives won their last majority in 1953.
In terms of the popular vote, the Progressive Conservatives actually lost support from the last election, however they dominated the rural southern portion of the province, a traditional Tory stronghold. They made some inroads into traditional NDP territory immediately north of Winnipeg. The party also won six seats in Winnipeg, and took the northern seat of Swan River from the NDP.
The New Democrats managed to retain four seats in Winnipeg, five in the north, the mid-northern ridings of Dauphin and Interlake, and Brandon East in the south of the province. It is still the worst defeat that an NDP government has suffered in Manitoba.
Exit polls later revealed that new voters (i.e., immigrants and first-time voters) had polled strongly for the Liberals in Winnipeg.
Although Pawley had retired from politics and his party was reduced to third place, by constitutional convention he retained the right to remain in office until the NDP was defeated in the legislature, as well as the right to advise whether Lieutenant Governor George Johnson should appoint Filmon or Carstairs as the new premier upon leaving office. Doer also could have attempted to negotiate a coalition with the Liberals. Instead, he informally reached a deal with Filmon in which the NDP would tolerate a Tory minority government. As a result, Pawley finally resigned as Premier of Manitoba on May 9 and advised Johnson to appoint Filmon his successor. Filmon was duly sworn in later that day after advising Johnson that he could form a government.
| Party | Party Leader | # of candidates |
Seats | Popular Vote | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before1 | Elected | % Change | # | % | Change | Progressive Conservative | Gary Filmon | 57 | 26 | 25 | -3.85% | 206,180 | 38.37% | -2.19 | Liberal | Sharon Carstairs | 57 | 1 | 20 | +1900% | 190,913 | 35.52% | +21.60 | New Democratic | Gary Doer | 57 | 30 | 12 | -60.0% | 126,954 | 23.62% | -17.88 | Dennis Heeney | 14 | - | - | - | 7,100 | 1.32% | -1.12 | Fred Cameron | 16 | - | - | - | 2,442 | 0.45% | +0.45 | Sidney Green | 6 | - | - | - | 975 | 0.18% | -0.33 | Clancy Smith | 6 | - | - | - | 501 | 0.09% | +0.09 | Lorne Robson | 5 | - | - | - | 261 | 0.05% | -0.03 | Independent | 11 | 2 | - | -100% | 2,084 | 0.39% | -0.46 | |
| Total | 229 | 57 | 57 | - | 537,410 | 100% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 "Before" refers to standings in the Legislature at dissolution, and not to the results of the previous election. These numbers therefore reflect changes in party standings as a result of by-elections and members crossing the floor.
Vote and seat summaries
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Synopsis of results
- Template:Color box = open seat
- Template:Color box = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
- Template:Color box = incumbent had switched allegiance
- Template:Color box = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
- Template:Color box = other incumbents renominated
- Template:Color box = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
- Template:Color box = multiple candidates
Turnout, winning shares and swings
Changes in party shares
- Template:Color box = did not field a candidate in 1986
Post-election changes
Gilles Roch (Springfield) became a Liberal on September 8, 1988.
Opinion polls
| Polling firm | Last day of survey |
Source | PCMB | MLP | MNDP | Other | Template:Abbr | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Template:Canadian party colour;" data-sort-type="number"| | style="background:Template:Canadian party colour;" data-sort-type="number"| | style="background:Template:Canadian party colour;" data-sort-type="number"| | style="background:Template:Canadian party colour;" data-sort-type="number"| | |||||
| Election 1988 | April 26, 1988 | 38.37 | 35.52 | 23.62 | 2.49 | |||
| University of Manitoba Research Ltd. | February 1988 | <ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | 50.4 | 22.8 | 25.4 | Template:N/A | Template:N/A | Template:N/A |
| University of Manitoba Research Ltd. | October 10, 1987 | <ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | 36.7 | 23.3 | 37.3 | Template:N/A | 3.0 | 1,090 |
| University of Manitoba Research Ltd. | June 1987 | <ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | 35.9 | 18.7 | 40.3 | Template:N/A | 3.0 | 1,005 |
| Western Opinion Research | April 1987 | <ref name="YorkApril87">Template:Cite news</ref> | 36 | 28 | 33 | Template:N/A | 4.5 | 500 |
| University of Manitoba Research Ltd. | February 1987 | <ref name="YorkApril87"/> | 32.4 | 16.6 | 45.6 | Template:N/A | 3.0 | 988 |
| Election 1986 | March 18, 1986 | 40.56 | 13.92 | 41.50 | 4.02 |
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
PC | Liberal | NDP | Others | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Polling method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Template:Canadian party colour | | style="background:Template:Canadian party colour " | | style="background:Template:Canadian party colour | | ||||||
| Angus Reid<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | Template:Dts | 43 | 34 | 22 | 1 | 818 | 3.5% | Telephone |
| Angus Reid<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | Template:Dts | 48 | 32 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 3.5% | Telephone |
| U of M<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | Template:Dts | 36.7 | 23.3 | 37.3 | 2.7 | 1,090 | 3.0% | Telephone |
| Western Opinion<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> | Template:Dts | 36 | 28 | 33 | 3 | 500 | 4.5% | Telephone |