99942 Apophis

Template:Short description Template:Use mdy dates {{#invoke:infobox|infoboxTemplate | class = vcard | titleclass = fn org | title = 99942 Apophis | image = {{#invoke:InfoboxImage|InfoboxImage|image=99942 Apophis shape.png|upright={{#if:||1.1}}|alt=}} | caption = Model of 99942 Apophis's shape, assuming the entire surface is of a similar composition | headerstyle = {{#if:#FFC2E0|background-color:#FFC2E0|background-color:#E0CCFF}}; color:inherit; | labelstyle = max-width:{{#if:||11em}}; | autoheaders = y

| header1 = Discovery<ref name="jpldata"/>

| header10 = {{#if:|Designations|Designations}}

| header20 = Orbital characteristics{{#ifeq:|yes| (barycentric)}}<ref name="jpldata"/>

| data21 = | data22 = {{#if:May 5, 2025
(JD 2460800.5) |Epoch May 5, 2025
(JD 2460800.5)}} | data23 = {{#if:0 | Uncertainty parameter 0}} | label24 = Observation arc | data24 = 6599 days (18.07 yr) | label25 = Earliest precovery date | data25 = March 15, 2004 | label26 = {{#switch:{{{apsis}}} |apsis|gee|barion|center|centre|(apsis)=Apo{{{apsis}}} |Ap{{#if:|{{{apsis}}}|helion}}}} | data26 = Template:Convert | label27 = Peri{{#if:|{{{apsis}}}|helion}} | data27 = Template:Convert | label28 = Peri{{#if:|{{{apsis}}}|apsis}} | data28 = | label29 = {{#switch:{{{apsis}}} |helion|astron=Ap{{{apsis}}} |Apo{{#if:|{{{apsis}}}|apsis}}}} | data29 = | label30 = Periastron | data30 = | label31 = Apoastron | data31 = | label32 = Template:Longitem | data32 = Template:Convert | label33 = Template:Longitem | data33 = | label34 = Eccentricity | data34 = 0.1911 | label35 = Template:Longitem | data35 = 0.886 yr (323.6 d) | label36 = Template:Longitem | data36 = | label37 = Template:Longitem | data37 = 30.73 km/s | label38 = Template:Longitem | data38 = 90.28° | label39 = Template:Longitem | data39 = 1.112°/day | label40 = Inclination | data40 = 3.341° | label41 = Template:Longitem | data41 = | label42 = Template:Longitem | data42 = 203.9° | label43 = Template:Longitem | data43 = | label44 = Template:Longitem | data44 = | label45 = Template:Longitem | data45 = 126.7° | label46 = Template:Nowrap | data46 = | label47 = Satellite of | data47 = | label48 = Group | data48 = | label49 = {{#switch: |yes|true=Satellites |Known satellites}} | data49 = | label50 = Star | data50 = | label51 = Earth MOID | data51 = Template:Convert<ref name="jpldata"/>Template:Efn | label52 = Mercury MOID | data52 = | label53 = Venus MOID | data53 = | label54 = Mars MOID | data54 = | label55 = Jupiter MOID | data55 = 4.1 AU | label56 = Saturn MOID | data56 = | label57 = Uranus MOID | data57 = | label58 = Neptune MOID | data58 = | label59 = T_Jupiter | data59 = 6.464

| header60 = Proper orbital elements

| label61 = Template:Longitem | data61 = {{#if: |{{{p_semimajor}}} AU}} | label62 = Template:Longitem | data62 = | label63 = Template:Longitem | data63 = | label64 = Template:Longitem | data64 = {{#if: |{{{p_mean_motion}}} deg Template:\yr}} | label65 = Template:Longitem | data65 = {{#if:|{{#expr:360/1 round 5}} yr
({{#expr:365.25*360/1 round 3}} d) }} | label66 = Template:Longitem | data66 = {{#if:|{{{perihelion_rate}}} arcsec Template:\yr }} | label67 = Template:Longitem | data67 = {{#if:|{{{node_rate}}} arcsec Template:\yr}}

| header70 = Template:Anchor{{#if:yes| Physical characteristics|Physical characteristics}}

| label71 = Dimensions | data71 = Template:Unbulleted list | label72 = Template:Longitem | data72 = | label73 = Template:Longitem | data73 = Template:Unbulleted list | label74 = Template:Longitem | data74 = | label75 = Template:Longitem | data75 = | label76 = Flattening | data76 = | label77 = Circumference | data77 = | label78 = Template:Longitem | data78 = | label79 = Volume | data79 = | label80 = Mass | data80 = Template:Val (assumed)<ref name="riskneo"/> | label81 = Template:Longitem | data81 = Template:Unbulleted list | label82 = Template:Longitem | data82 = | label83 = Template:Longitem | data83 = | label84 = Template:Longitem | data84 = | label85 = Template:Longitem | data85 = Template:Convert<ref name="jpldata"/><ref name="phys"/>
30.55±0.12 h<ref name="Reddy2022"/>
30.67±0.06 h<ref name="IAWN2021-Gallery"/>
Tumbling:<ref name="tumblingspinstate"/>
27.38±0.07 h (precession period),<ref name="tumblingspinstate"/> 263±6 h (rotation period),<ref name="tumblingspinstate"/> 30.56±0.01 h (twice the period of harmonic with strongest lightcurve amplitude)<ref name="tumblingspinstate"/> | label86 = Template:Longitem | data86 = | label87 = Template:Longitem | data87 = | label88 = Template:Longitem | data88 = | label89 = Template:Longitem | data89 = | label90 = Template:Longitem | data90 = | label91 = Template:Longitem | data91 = | label92 = Template:Longitem | data92 = | label93 = {{#if:yes |Template:Longitem |Albedo}} | data93 = Template:Unbulleted list | label94 = Temperature | data94 = 270 K

| data100 = {{#if:|

Surface temp.	min	mean	max
{{{temp_name1}}}
{{{temp_name2}}}
{{{temp_name3}}}
{{{temp_name4}}}

}}

| header110 = Atmosphere

| below = {{#if:||Template:Reflist }}

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99942 Apophis (provisional designation Template:Minor planet) is a near-Earth asteroid and a potentially hazardous object, 450 metres (1,480 ft) by 170 metres (560 ft) in size.<ref name="Brozovic2018"/> Observations eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth in 2029, when it will pass the Earth at a distance of about 31,600 kilometres (19,600 mi) above the surface.<ref name="surface"/><ref name="nasa_2023-09-24"/> It will also have a close encounter with the Moon, passing about 95,000 km from the lunar surface.<ref name="SBAG"/>

There was a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability of 0.027 (2.7%) that the asteroid would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.

A small possibility nevertheless remained that, during its 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole estimated to be 800 metres in diameter,<ref name="keyhole"/><ref name="Neil deGrasse Tyson – Death By Giant Meteor"/> which would have set up a future impact exactly seven years later on Easter Sunday, April 13, 2036.<ref name="nasa_Apophis_PUBLISHED_PAPER">Template:Cite journal</ref> This possibility kept it at Level 1 on the 0 to 10 Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis would pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small and Apophis's rating on the Torino scale was lowered to Level 0. By 2008, the keyhole had been determined to be less than 1 km wide.<ref name="keyhole"/> During the short time when it had been of greatest concern, Apophis set the record for highest rating ever on the Torino scale, reaching Level 4 on December 27, 2004.<ref name="nasanews146"/>

It is estimated that an asteroid as big or bigger coming so close to Earth happens only once in 800 years on average.<ref name="neo"/><ref name="Predicting">Template:Cite journal</ref> Such an asteroid is expected to actually hit Earth once in about 80,000 years.<ref name="Earth-impact"/>

Preliminary observations by Goldstone radar in January 2013 effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036 (probability less than one in a million).<ref name="NASA2013-017"/> In February 2013 the estimated probability of an impact in 2036 was reduced to Template:Val.<ref name="Farnocchia2013_Icarus"/><ref name="riskneo"/> It is now known that in 2036, Apophis will approach the Earth at a third the distance of the Sun in both March and December,<ref name="jpldata"/> about the distance of the planet Venus when it overtakes Earth every 1.6 years. Simulations in 2013 showed that the Yarkovsky effect might cause Apophis to hit a "keyhole" in 2029 so that it will come close to Earth in 2051, and then could hit another keyhole and hit Earth in 2068. But the chance of the Yarkovsky effect having exactly the right value for this was estimated as two in a million.<ref name="Farnocchia2013_Icarus"/><ref name="S&T2020"/> Radar observations in March 2021 helped to refine the orbit,<ref name="Goldstone2021"/> and in March 2021 the Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that Apophis has no chance of impacting Earth in the next 100 years.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> The uncertainty in the 2029 approach distance has been reduced from hundreds of kilometres to now just a couple of kilometres,<ref name="Horizons2029"/> greatly enhancing predictions of future approaches. Entering March 2021, six asteroids each had a more notable cumulative Palermo scale rating than Apophis, and none of those has a Torino level above 0.<ref name="risk-table"/>Template:Efn However, Apophis will continue to be a threat possibly for thousands of years until it is removed from being a potentially hazardous object, for instance by passing close to Venus or Mars.

Discovery and naming

File:PIA23195-AsteroidApophis-ClosestApproachToEarth-20190429.webm Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi at the Kitt Peak National Observatory.<ref name="jpldata"/> On December 21, 2004, Apophis passed Template:Convert from Earth.<ref name="jpldata"/> Precovery observations from March 15, 2004, were identified on December 27, and an improved orbit solution was computed.<ref name="MPEC2004-Y70"/><ref name="nasanews148"/> Radar astrometry in January 2005 further refined its orbit solution.<ref name="Arecibo"/><ref name="nasanews149"/> The discovery was notable in that it was at a very low solar elongation (56°) and at very long range (1.1 AU).Template:Citation needed

When first discovered, the object received the provisional designation Template:Minor planet, and early news and scientific articles naturally referred to it by that name. Once its orbit was sufficiently well calculated, it received the permanent number 99942 (on June 24, 2005). Receiving a permanent number made it eligible for naming by its discoverers, and they chose the name "Apophis" on July 19, 2005.<ref name="naming"/> Apophis is the Greek name of Apep, an enemy of the Ancient Egyptian sun-god Ra. He is the Uncreator, an evil serpent that dwells in the eternal darkness of the Duat and tries to swallow Ra during his nightly passage. Apep is held at bay by Set, the Ancient Egyptian god of storms and the desert.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> Apophis will evolve from an Apollo- into an Aten-type asteroid as a result of the 2029 encounter. Apollo asteroids are usually named after Greek deities, Aten asteroids after Egyptian ones. The name Apophis is a nod to that: It is the Greek name of an Egyptian deity.<ref name="BAN315">Template:Citation</ref><ref name="naming"/>

Tholen and Tucker, two of the co-discoverers of the asteroid, are reportedly fans of the television series Stargate SG-1. One of the show's persistent villains is an alien named Apophis. He is one of the principal threats to the existence of civilization on Earth through the first few seasons, and may have inspired the naming.<ref name="naming"/> Tholen denied reports that the asteroid was named after the TV character, stating that the connection is coincidental.<ref name="BAN315"/><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> In the fictional world of the show, the alien's backstory was that he had lived on Earth during ancient times and had posed as a god, thereby giving rise to the myth of the Egyptian god of the same name.<ref name="naming"/>

The mythological creature Apophis is pronounced with the accent on the first syllable (/ˈæpəfɪs/).Template:Efn In contrast, the asteroid's name is generally accented on the second syllable (Template:IPA,<ref>Template:Cite Dictionary.com</ref> or Template:IPA as the name was pronounced in the TV series).<ref name="pronunciation1">As an example, here is David Tholen, the discoverer of the asteroid, pronouncing the name: {{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Symbols were given to the first few asteroids in the 19th century, though this practice faded when it became clear that there were a great number of them: such symbols are now extremely rarely used by astronomers. In 2008, Denis Moskowitz, a software engineer who devised most of the dwarf planet symbols in Unicode, proposed a symbol for Apophis. His symbol is based on ancient Egyptian depictions of Apep. The added star is similar to many of the 19th-century asteroid symbols.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Physical characteristics and rotation

Based on the observed brightness, Apophis's diameter was initially estimated at Template:Convert; a more refined estimate based on spectroscopic observations at NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii by Binzel, Rivkin, Bus, and Tokunaga (2005) is Template:Convert. As of 2013, NASA's impact risk page listed the diameter at Template:Convert, and an assumed mass of 4Template:X10^ kg.<ref name="riskneo"/> The mass estimate is more approximate than the diameter estimate, but should be accurate to within a factor of three.<ref name="riskneo"/> Apophis's surface composition probably matches that of LL chondrites.<ref name="Reddy2018"/>

Based on Goldstone and Arecibo radar images taken in 2012–2013, Brozović et al. have estimated that Apophis is an elongated object 450 × 170 metres in size, and that it is bilobed (possibly a contact binary) with a relatively bright surface albedo of Template:Val. The axis of its angular momentum points 59° south of the ecliptic, which means that Apophis is a retrograde rotator.<ref name="Brozovic2018"/> Apophis is a tumbler, which means that it does not rotate around a fixed axis. Rather, the axis of rotation moves in the frame of reference of the asteroid with a period of around 263 hours (called the rotation period). The angle between it and the principal axis of highest moment of inertia varies, as does the angle between that principal axis and the vector of angular momentum (from around 12° to around 55° twice every period). During this period, the angle between the long axis of Apophis and the angular momentum vector swings between around 78° and 102° (90°±12°). But the principal axis of highest moment and the rotation axis both move around the constant axis of angular momentum much faster, with a time-averaged period of 27.38 hours (this is called precession). The result is that Apophis appears to be flipping, making a revolution on average every 30.56 hours. Every 263 hours, the principal axis with highest moment goes around 263/27.28 times (ca 9.6), whereas the long axis goes around 263/30.56 times (ca 8.6).<ref name="tumblingspinstate"/>

Orbit

Apophis has a low inclination orbit (3.3°) that varies from just outside the orbit of Venus (0.746 AU, as compared to the aphelion of Venus, 0.728) to just outside the orbit of Earth (1.099 AU).<ref name="jpldata"/> Although its orbit changes slightly each time it comes close to Earth, at present it comes near Earth once in 7.75 years on average (four times between April 14, 1998, and April 13, 2029). Because of its eccentric orbit, these moments are not evenly spaced and tend to occur between December and April, when Apophis is in the outer portions of its orbit.<ref name="Predicting"/> In fact, the eccentricity and semi-major axis are such that (before 2029) Apophis is always receding from Earth around May 1 and is always approaching around December 2.<ref>See "deldot" in this JPL Horizons simulation and this one.</ref> At the ascending node (where Apophis crosses the plane of Earth's orbit from south to north) Apophis is very close to where Earth is around April 13 of any year, and this is what gives rise to close encounters such as the one on April 13, 2029. The orbit also passes south of where the earth is in mid December, producing for example the close approaches of December 16, 1889, and December 18, 1939.<ref name="Predicting"/> After the 2029 Earth approach, the orbit will change dramatically. The period will change from around Template:Fraction of a year to a bit under Template:Fraction. It will still come very close to Earth's yearly April 13 location. It will no longer pass close to Earth's yearly mid-December location, but will then pass close to Earth's mid-September location. This will cause a close encounter on September 11, 2102, after which the uncertainty in the location of Apophis will increase rapidly with time.<ref name="jpldata"/>

Selected approaches to Earth till 2117<ref name="jpldata"/>
Date	JPL SBDB nominal geocentric distance (AU)	uncertainty region (3-sigma)
2004-12-21	Template:Convert	n/a
2013-01-09	Template:Convert	n/a
2029-04-13	Template:Convert	±3.3 km<ref name="Horizons2029"/>
2036-03-27	Template:Convert	±130 thousand km<ref name="Horizons2036"/>
2051-04-20	Template:Convert	±240 thousand km<ref name="Horizons2051"/>
2066-09-16	Template:Convert	±870 thousand km
2116-04-12	Template:Convert	Template:Convert Template:Efn
2117-10-07	Template:Convert	Template:Convert Template:Efn

2029 close approach

The closest known approach of Apophis will occur on April 13, 2029, at 21:46 UT, when Apophis will pass Earth at a distance of about Template:Convert above the surface.<ref name="surface">2029-Apr-13 approach: Template:Convert. 38012km "geocentric distance" – 6378km "Earth radius" = 31634km</ref><ref name="nasa_2023-09-24">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> Using the June 2024 orbit solution which includes the Yarkovsky effect, the 3-sigma uncertainty region in the 2029 approach distance is about ±3.3 km.<ref name="Horizons2029"/><ref name="jpldata"/> The distance, a hair's breadth in astronomical terms, is five times the radius of the Earth, one tenth the distance to the Moon,<ref name="blog2023">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref> and closer than the ring of geostationary satellites currently orbiting the Earth.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref name="earthsky-preparing"/> It will be the closest asteroid of its size in recorded history. On that date, it will become as bright as magnitude 3.1<ref name="NEODyS2029"/> (visible to the naked eye from rural as well as darker suburban areas, visible with binoculars from most locations).<ref name="mag-scale"/> The close approach will be visible from Europe, Africa, and western Asia. Over the course of about a day, Apophis will move northwest from Centaurus to Perseus and then southwest to Pisces, an arc of 205°.<ref>From ecliptic longitude and latitude of 221°, −16° to 16°, 12° (according to this Horizons run), or in right ascension and declination, from 14h14m, −30°17' to 0h39m, 16°51' (using 29' this and this).</ref> Approaching Earth its speed relative to Earth will be 6.0 km/s. Earth's gravity will accelerate it to 7.4 km/s at the time of closest approach, and then slow it back down to 6 as it departs.<ref>According to this JPL Horizons run.</ref> During the approach, Earth will perturb Apophis from an Aten-class orbit with a semi-major axis of 0.92 AU to an Apollo-class orbit with a semi-major axis of 1.1 AU.<ref name="Orbit2029"/> Perihelion will lift from 0.746 AU to 0.895 AU and aphelion will lift from 1.10 AU to 1.31 AU.<ref name="Orbit2029"/>

Orbital elements for 2029 (pre-flyby) and 2030 (post-flyby)<ref name="Orbit2029"/>
Parameter	Epoch	Orbit type	Orbital period	Semi-major axis	Perihelion	Aphelion	Inclination	Eccentricity
Units				AU			(°)
Pre-flyby	2029	Aten	Template:Convert	0.922	0.746	1.10	3.34°	0.191
Post-flyby	2030	Apollo	Template:Convert	1.103	0.895	1.31	2.22°	0.189

Apophis also encounters the Moon at ~95,000 km from the lunar surface, ~17 hours after encounter with Earth.<ref name="SBAG">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

During the 2029 approach, Apophis's brightness will peak at magnitude 3.1,<ref name="NEODyS2029"/> easily visible to the naked eye, with a maximum angular speed of 42° per hour. The maximum apparent angular diameter will be approximately 2 arcseconds. This is roughly equivalent to the angular diameter of Neptune from earth. Therefore, the asteroid will be barely resolved by ground-based telescopes not equipped with adaptive optics but very well resolved by those that are.<ref name = NeptuneVLTAdaptiveOptics/> Because the approach will be so close, tidal forces are likely to alter Apophis's rotation axis, but Apophis will not approach within the Roche limit where it would be broken up by tidal forces. A partial resurfacing of the asteroid is possible, which might change its spectral class from a weathered Sq- to an unweathered Q-type.<ref name="Brozovic2018"/><ref name="Reddy2018"/>

Template:Multiple image

Template:Large near earth asteroid flybys 2LD

2036 approaches

In 2036, Apophis will pass the Earth at a third the distance of the Sun in both March and December.<ref name="jpldata"/> Using the 2024 orbit solution, the Earth approach on March 27, 2036, will be no closer than Template:Convert, but more likely about Template:Convert.<ref name="jpldata"/> For comparison, the planet Venus will be closer to Earth at Template:Convert on May 30, 2036.<ref name="Venus">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>Template:Efn On December 31, 2036, Apophis will be a little bit further away than the March approach at about Template:Convert.

2051 approach

Around April 19–20, 2051, Apophis will pass about Template:Convert from Earth and it will be the first time since 2029 that Apophis will pass within 10 million km of Earth.<ref name="jpldata"/>

2066 and 2068

Although early simulations showed that there was a chance Apophis could hit the earth on April 12, 2068,<ref name="Farnocchia2013_Icarus"/> this was later excluded and JPL Horizons calculates that Apophis will be about Template:Convert from Earth,<ref name="Horizons2068"/><ref name="NEODyS2068"/> making the asteroid much farther than the Sun.

By 2116, the JPL Small-Body Database and NEODyS close approach data start to become divergent.<ref name="jpldata"/><ref name="NEODys"/> In April 2116, Apophis is expected to pass about Template:Convert from Earth, but could pass as close as Template:Convert or as far as Template:Convert.<ref name="jpldata"/>

Refinement of close approach predictions

Six months after discovery, and shortly after a close approach to Earth on December 21, 2004, the improved orbital estimates led to the prediction of a very close approach on April 13, 2029, by both NASA's automatic Sentry system and NEODyS, a similar automatic program run by the University of Pisa and the University of Valladolid. Subsequent observations decreased the uncertainty in Apophis's trajectory and the probability of an impact event in 2029 temporarily climbed, peaking at 2.7% (1 in 37) on December 27, 2004,<ref name="nasanews164"/><ref name="mirror"/> when the uncertainty region had shrunk to 83,000 km.<ref name="VI2029"/> This probability, combined with its size, caused Apophis to be assessed at level 4 on the Torino scale<ref name="nasanews146"/> and 1.10 on the Palermo scale (corresponding to an impact hazard over 12 times the background level), scales scientists use to represent how dangerous a given asteroid is to Earth. These are the highest values at which any object has been rated on either scale. The chance that there would be an impact in 2029 was eliminated later in the day of December 27, 2004, as a result of a precovery image that extended the observation arc back to March 2004.<ref name="nasanews148"/> The danger of a 2036 passage was lowered to level 0 on the Torino scale in August 2006.<ref name="Wayback2006-08"/> With a cumulative Palermo scale rating of −3.22,<ref name="riskneo"/> the risk of impact from Apophis is less than one thousandth the background hazard level.<ref name="riskneo"/>

In July 2005, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, as chairman of the B612 Foundation, formally asked NASA to investigate the possibility that the asteroid's post-2029 orbit could be in orbital resonance with Earth, which would increase the probability of future impacts. Schweickart also asked NASA to investigate whether a transponder should be placed on the asteroid to enable more accurate tracking of how its orbit is affected by the Yarkovsky effect.<ref name="Schweickart"/>

2011 observations

On January 31, 2011, astronomers took the first new images of Apophis in more than three years.<ref name="Tholen"/>

2013-2015 refinement

The close approach in 2029 will substantially alter the object's orbit, prompting Jon Giorgini of JPL to say in 2011, "If we get radar ranging in 2013 [the next good opportunity], we should be able to predict the location of Template:Minor planet out to at least 2070."<ref name="Science"/> Apophis passed within Template:Convert of Earth in 2013, allowing astronomers to refine the trajectory for future close passes.<ref name="esanews1"/><ref name="NEODys"/><ref name="refine2013"/> Just after the closest approach on January 9, 2013,<ref name="NEODys"/> the asteroid peaked at an apparent magnitude of about 15.6.<ref name="NEODyS2013"/> The Goldstone radar observed Apophis during that approach from January 3 through January 17.<ref name="Goldstone"/> The Arecibo Observatory observed Apophis once it entered Arecibo's field of view after February 13, 2013.<ref name="Goldstone"/> The 2013 observations basically ruled out any chance of a 2036 impact.

A NASA assessment as of February 21, 2013, that did not use the January and February 2013 radar measurements gave an impact probability of 2.3 in a million for 2068.<ref name="news178"/> As of May 6, 2013, using observations through April 15, 2013, the odds of an impact on April 12, 2068, as calculated by the JPL Sentry risk table had increased slightly to 3.9 in a million (1 in 256,000).<ref name="riskneo"/>

Incorporating early 2015 observations, the April 12, 2068, impact probability was 6.7 in a million (1 in 150,000), and the asteroid had a cumulative 9 in a million (1 in 110,000) chance of impacting Earth before 2106.<ref name="Sentry_Mar2015"/> After 2015, its orbit kept it near the Sun from the perspective of Earth, precluding telescopic observations. It was not further than 60 degrees from the Sun between April 2014 and December 2019.

2020–2021 observations

File:Apophis February 2021 NBO.webm No observations of Apophis were made between January 2015 and February 2019 but observations began again in January 2020.<ref name="mpc"/> In March 2020, astronomers David Tholen and Davide Farnocchia measured the acceleration of Apophis due to the Yarkovsky effect for the first time, significantly improving the prediction of its orbit past the 2029 flyby. Tholen and Farnocchia found that the Yarkovsky effect causes the semi-major axis to decrease by about 170 metres per year, causing an increase in ecliptic longitude that is quadratic in time.<ref name="TholenFarmocchia"/> In late 2020 Apophis approached the Earth and passed Template:Convert from Earth on March 6, 2021, brightening to +15 mag at that time. Radar observations of Apophis were carried out at Goldstone in March 2021.<ref name=Jorge/><ref name="Goldstone2021"/> The asteroid has been observed by NEOWISE (between December 2020 and April 2021)<ref name="Satpathy2022"/><ref name="FrankfurterRundschau_20210304"/> and by NEOSSat (in January 2021).<ref name="Reddy2022"/><ref name="IAWN2021"/><ref name="IAWN2021-Gallery"/>

These observations showed that the impact parameter ζ (basically how far behind Earth Apophis would pass if it were not deflected by the gravitational pull of Earth) in 2029 will be about 47,363 km,<ref name=Jorge>Template:Cite journal</ref> less than the earlier nominal value of 47,659 km by 296 km because of the Yarkovsky effect. This means that Apophis will not hit Earth in the coming century, in particular avoiding the keyhole 212.14 km below nominal that would have led to a collision in 2068.<ref name="Farnocchia2013_Icarus"/>

Apophis was the target of an observing campaign by the International Asteroid Warning Network, resulting in the collection of light curves, spectra, and astrometry.<ref name="Reddy2022"/><ref name="IAWN2021"/><ref name="IAWN2021-Gallery"/> The observations were used to practice and coordinate the response to an actual impact threat. Ignoring all earlier observations, the estimated probability of an impact in 2029 reached 16 percent before going down to zero.<ref name="PlanetaryDefense2021"/>

On February 21, 2021, Apophis was removed from the Sentry Risk Table, as an impact in the next 100 years was finally ruled out.<ref name="removed">Removed Objects from Sentry Risk Table</ref>

Several occultations of bright stars (apparent magnitude 8–11) by Apophis occurred in March and April 2021.<ref name="JOA2021_3"/><ref name="Gaia_20210329"/><ref name="Tanga2021"/><ref name="Occultation award"/> A total of five separate occultations were observed successfully, marking the first time that an asteroid as small as Apophis was observed using the occultation method (beating the previous record set in 2019 by asteroid 3200 Phaethon, which is more than ten times the size of Apophis).<ref name="Gaia_20210329"/> The first event, on March 7, was successfully observed from the United States by multiple observers.<ref name="SETI2021"/><ref name="Occultation_prelim"/><ref name="JOA2021_3"/> The next potential occultation, which occurred on March 11, was predicted to be visible from central Europe,<ref name="Tanga2021"/> but was not observed, mainly because of bad weather (two negative observations were recorded from Greece).<ref name="Gaia_20210329"/> Another occultation occurred on March 22, but larger-than-expected residuals in the March 7 data had caused the majority of observers to be deployed outside of the actual path for the occultation,<ref name="JOA2021_3"/> and it was observed only by a single observer from the United States, amateur astronomer Roger Venable. This single detection then allowed the prediction of several more events that would have been unobservable otherwise, including an occultation on April 4, which was observed from New Mexico, again by Venable, alongside others.<ref name="Occultation award"/><ref name="JOA2021_3"/> Two more occultations, observable on April 10 and 11 from Japan and New Mexico, respectively, were seen by several observers each.<ref name="JOA2021_3"/> The occultation measurements allowed refinement of the measurement of the asteroid size and orbit.

On March 9, 2021, using radar observations from Goldstone taken on March 3–8 and three positive detections of the stellar occultation on March 7, 2021,<ref name="vvs.be"/> Apophis became the asteroid with the most precisely measured Yarkovsky effect of all asteroids, at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 186.4,<ref name="JPLdata_20210309"/>Template:Efn surpassing 101955 Bennu (SNR=181.6).<ref name="YarkovskySNR"/>

The 2021 apparition was the last opportunity to observe Apophis before its 2029 flyby.<ref name="jpldata"/>

Asteroid 99942 Apophis – radar observations March 8–10, 2021 (March 26, 2021)

History of impact estimates

Date	Time	Status
2004-12-23		The original NASA report mentioned impact chances of "around 1 in 300" in 2029, which was widely reported in the media.<ref name="nasanews146"/> The actual NASA estimates at the time were 1 in 233; these resulted in a Torino scale rating of 2, the first time any asteroid had received a rating above 1.
2004-12-23		Later that day, based on a total of 64 observations, the estimates were changed to 1 in 62 (1.6%), resulting in an update to the initial report and an upgrade to a Torino scale rating of 4.
2004-12-25		The chances were first reported as 1 in 42 (2.4%) and later that day (based on 101 observations) as 1 in 45 (2.2%). At the same time, the asteroid's estimated diameter was lowered from 440 m to 390 m and its mass from 1.2×10¹¹ kg to 8.3×10¹⁰ kg.
2004-12-26		Based on a total of 169 observations, the impact probability was still estimated as 1 in 45 (2.2%), the estimates for diameter and mass were lowered to 380 m and 7.5×10¹⁰ kg, respectively.
2004-12-27		Based on a total of 176 observations with an observation arc of 190 days, the impact probability was raised to 1 in 37 (2.7%)<ref name="mirror"/> with a line of variation (LOV) of only 83,000 km;<ref name="VI2029">Virtual Impactor for 2029-04-13 (Stretch LOV = 1.29E+1) * Earth radius of 6,420 km = 82,818 km.</ref> diameter was increased to 390 m, and mass to 7.9×10¹⁰ kg.
2004-12-27		Later that afternoon, a precovery increased the span of observations to 287 days, which eliminated the 2029 impact threat.<ref name="nasanews148"/> The cumulative impact probability was estimated to be around 0.004%, a risk lower than that of asteroid Template:Minor planet link, which once again became (temporarily) the greatest-risk object. A 2053 approach to Earth still posed a minor risk of impact, and Apophis was still rated at level one on the Torino scale for this orbit.
2004-12-28	12:23 GMT	Based on a total of 139 observations, a value of one was given on the Torino scale for 2044-04-13.29 and 2053-04-13.51.
2004-12-29	01:10 GMT	The only pass rated 1 on the Torino scale was for 2053-04-13.51 based on 139 observations spanning 287.71 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-27.8243).
2004-12-29	19:18 GMT	This was still the case based upon 147 observations spanning 288.92 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-29.02821), though the close encounters were changed and reduced to 4 in total.
2004-12-30	13:46 GMT	No passes were rated above 0, based upon 157 observations spanning 289.33 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-29.44434). The most dangerous pass was rated at 1 in 7,143,000.
2004-12-30	22:34 GMT	157 observations spanning 289.33 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-29.44434). One pass at 1 (Torino scale) 3 other passes.
2005-01-02	03:57 GMT	Observations spanning 290.97 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-31.07992) One pass at 1 (Torino scale) 19 other passes.
2005-01-03	14:49 GMT	Observations spanning 292.72 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2005-Jan-01.82787) One pass at 1 (Torino scale) 15 other passes.
2005–01		Extremely precise radar observations at Arecibo Observatory<ref name="Arecibo"/> refine the orbit further and show that the April 2029 close approach will occur at only 5.7 Earth radii,<ref name="nasanews149"/> approximately one-half the distance previously estimated.
2005-02-06		Apophis estimated to have a 1-in-13,000 chance of impacting in April 2036.<ref name="Wayback2005-02"/>
2005-08-07		Radar observation<ref name="Arecibo"/> refines the orbit further and eliminates the possibility of an impact in 2035. Only the pass in 2036 remains at Torino scale 1 (with a 1-in-5,560 chance of impact).<ref name="Wayback2005-10"/>
2005–10		It is predicted that Apophis will pass just below the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, which are at approximately Template:Convert.<ref name="Wee2012"/> Such a close approach by an asteroid of that size is estimated to occur every 800 years or so.<ref name="neo"/>
2006-05-06		Radar observation at Arecibo Observatory<ref name="Arecibo"/> slightly lowered the Palermo scale rating, but the pass in 2036 remained at Torino scale 1<ref name="Wayback2006-07"/> despite the impact probability dropping by a factor of four.
2006-08-05		Additional observations through 2006 resulted in Apophis being lowered to Torino scale 0.<ref name="Wayback2006-08"/> (The impact probability was assessed as 1 in 45,000.)<ref name="Wayback2006-08"/>
2008-04		News outlets carry the story that 13-year-old German student Nico Marquardt found a probability of 1 in 450 for a 2036 impact.<ref name="Bild.de"/> This estimate was allegedly acknowledged by ESA and NASA<ref name="RadioCanada"/><ref name="Schoolboy"/><ref name="Bild.de"/> but in an official statement,<ref name="NASAkid"/> NASA denied they had made an error. The release went on to explain that since the angle of Apophis's approach to the Earth's equator means the asteroid will not travel through the belt of current equatorial geosynchronous satellites, there is currently no risk of collision; and the effect on Apophis's orbit of any such impact would be insignificant.
2009-04-29		An animation is released<ref name="ApophisBias"/> that shows how unmeasured physical parameters of Apophis bias the entire statistical uncertainty region. If Apophis is a retrograde rotator on the small, less-massive end of what is possible, it will be several hundred kilometres further ahead in 2029, resulting in a different change to its orbit, and then the measurement uncertainty region for 2036 will get pushed back such that the center of the distribution encounters Earth's orbit. This would result in an impact probability much higher than computed with the Standard Dynamical Model. Conversely, if Apophis is a small, less-massive prograde rotator, it arrives a bit later on April 13, 2029, and the uncertainty region for 2036 is advanced along the orbit. Only the remote tails of the probability distribution could encounter Earth, producing a negligible impact probability for 2036.<ref name="neo"/><ref name="Predicting"/>
2009-10-07		Refinements to the precovery images of Apophis by the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, the 90-inch Bok Telescope, and the Arecibo Observatory have generated a refined path that reduces the odds of an April 13, 2036, impact to about 1 in 250,000.<ref name="Brown2009"/>
		Criticism of older published impact probabilities rests on the fact that important physical parameters such as mass and spin that affect its precise trajectory had not yet been accurately measured and hence there were no associated probability distributions. The Standard Dynamical Model used for making predictions simplifies calculations by assuming Earth is a point mass. This could lead to a prediction error of up to 2.9 Earth radii for the 2036 approach, necessitating the consideration of Earth's oblateness during the 2029 passage for accurately forecasting the potential impact.<ref name="neo"/> Additional factors that could greatly influence the predicted motion in ways that depend on unknown details, were the spin of the asteroid,<ref name="TrajectoryChange"/> its precise mass, the way it reflects and absorbs sunlight, radiates heat, and the gravitational pull of other asteroids passing nearby.<ref name="neo"/> Small uncertainties in the masses and positions of the planets and Sun could cause up to 23 Earth radii of prediction error for Apophis by 2036.<ref name="neo"/>
2013-01		A statistical impact risk analysis of the data up to this point calculated that the odds of the 2036 impact at 7.07 in a billion, effectively ruling it out. The same study looked at the odds of an impact in 2068, which were calculated at 2.27 in a million.<ref name="Farnocchia2013_Icarus"/> First appearance of Sentry virtual impactors that also include mid-October dates.<ref name="Wayback2013-01"/>
2013-01-09		The European Space Agency (ESA) announced that the Herschel Space Observatory made new thermal infrared observations of the asteroid as it approached Earth. The initial data shows the asteroid to be bigger than first estimated because it is now expected to be less reflective than originally thought.<ref name="esanews1"/> The Herschel Space Observatory observations increased the diameter estimate by 20% from 270 to 325 metres, which translates into a 75% increase in the estimates of the asteroid's volume or mass.<ref name="esanews1"/> Goldstone single-pixel observations of Apophis have ruled out the potential 2036 Earth impact.<ref name="NASA2013-017"/><ref name="Beatty2013"/><ref name="Plait2013"/> Apophis will then come no closer than about Template:Convert—and more likely miss us by something closer to Template:Convert.<ref name="Beatty2013"/> The radar astrometry is more precise than was expected.<ref name="Beatty2013"/>
2014-10-8		The Sentry Risk Table assessed Apophis as having a 6.7-in-a-million (1-in-150,000) chance of impacting Earth in 2068, and a 9-in-a-million (1-in-110,000) cumulative chance of impacting Earth by 2105.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1\|citation	CitationClass=web }}</ref>
2020-03		By taking observations of Apophis with the Subaru Telescope in January and March 2020, as well as remeasuring older observations using the new Gaia DR2 star catalog, astronomers positively detect the Yarkovsky effect on Apophis. The semi-major axis thereby decreases by about 170 metres per year. The Yarkovsky effect is the main source of uncertainty in impact probability estimates for this asteroid.<ref name="TholenFarmocchia"/>
2021-02-21		Apophis was removed from the Sentry Risk Table, as an impact in the next 100 years was finally ruled out.<ref name="removed"/>
2021-03-15	10:44	citation	CitationClass=web }}</ref> to about ±3 km.<ref name="jpldata"/> The June 2021 solution showed the Earth approach on March 27, 2036, will be no closer than Template:Convert.<ref name="jpldata"/>
2024-06-25		JPL solution #220 includes observations through 2022-April-09.<ref name="jpldata"/>

Possible impact effects

As of 2021, the Sentry Risk Table estimated that Apophis would impact Earth with kinetic energy equivalent to 1,200 MT or megatons of TNT.<ref name="riskneo"/> In comparison, the energy released by the eruption of Krakatoa was 200 MT, the total global nuclear arsenal has an energy equivalent to 1,460 MT, and the Chicxulub impact and extinction event had an estimated energy of 100,000,000 MT (100 teratons). See TNT equivalent examples for an extended table of comparable energies.

The exact effects of an impact would vary based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact of Apophis would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Assuming Apophis is a Template:Convert stony asteroid with a density of 3,000 kg/m³, if it were to impact into sedimentary rock, Apophis would create a Template:Convert impact crater.<ref name="Earth-impact"/><ref name="riskneo"/>

Expired 2036 path of risk

In 2008, the B612 Foundation made estimates of Apophis's path if a 2036 Earth impact were to occur, as part of an effort to develop viable deflection strategies.<ref name="Schweickart2"/> The result was a narrow corridor a few kilometres wide, called the "path of risk", extending across southern Russia, across the north Pacific (relatively close to the coastlines of California and Mexico), then right between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, crossing northern Colombia and Venezuela, ending in the Atlantic, just before reaching Africa.<ref>Range of Possible Impact Points on April 13, 2036 in Scenarios for Dealing with Apophis, by Donald B. Gennery, presented at the Planetary Defense Conference. Washington, DC. March 5–8, 2007 (archived from the original on April 12, 2012).</ref> Using the computer simulation tool NEOSim, it was estimated that the hypothetical impact of Apophis in countries such as Colombia and Venezuela, which were in the path of risk, could have more than 10 million casualties.<ref name="Baileya2006"/> A deep-water impact in the Atlantic or Pacific oceans would produce an incoherent short-range tsunami with a potential destructive radius (inundation height of >2 m) of roughly Template:Convert for most of North America, Brazil and Africa, Template:Convert for Japan and Template:Convert for some areas in Hawaii.<ref name="Paine1999"/>

Exploration

NASA

OSIRIS-APEX post-Earth-encounter rendezvous

The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft returned a sample of Bennu to Earth on September 24, 2023.<ref>Template:Cite report Template:Source-attribution</ref> After ejecting the sample canister, the spacecraft can use its remaining fuel to target another body during an extended mission. Apophis is the only asteroid which the spacecraft could reach for a long-duration rendezvous, rather than a brief flyby. In April 2022, the extension was approved, and OSIRIS-REx will perform a rendezvous with Apophis in April 2029, a few days after the close approach to Earth. It will study the asteroid for 18 months and perform a maneuver similar to the one it made during sample collection at Bennu, by approaching the surface and firing its thrusters. This will expose the asteroid's subsurface and allow mission scientists to learn more about the asteroid's material properties.<ref name="Bartels2021"/><ref name="Lauretta2020"/> For its Apophis mission after the sample return, OSIRIS-REx was renamed OSIRIS-APEX (short for OSIRIS-Apophis Explorer).<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Planetary Society

In 2007, the Planetary Society, a California-based space advocacy group, organised a $50,000 competition to design an uncrewed space probe that would 'shadow' Apophis for almost a year, taking measurements that would "determine whether it will impact Earth, thus helping governments decide whether to mount a deflection mission to alter its orbit". The society received 37 entries from 20 countries on 6 continents.<ref name="Planetary2007">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

The commercial competition was won by a design called Foresight created by SpaceWorks Engineering.<ref name="competition"/><ref name="Planetary2007"/>Template:Clarify SpaceWorks proposed a simple orbiter with only two instruments and a radio beacon at a cost of ~US$140 million, launched aboard a Minotaur IV between 2012 and 2014. Pharos, the winning student entry, would be an orbiter with four science instruments that would rendezvous with and track Apophis. The spacecraft would have been launched in April or May 2013 aboard a Delta II 7925 rocket, to arrive at the asteroid after a cruise of 233 to 309 days. It would have carried four additional BUOI probes that would have impacted the surface of Apophis over the course of two weeks.<ref name="Planetary2007"/><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

ESA

Don Quijote

Apophis is one of two asteroids that were considered by the European Space Agency as the target of its Don Quijote mission concept to study the effects of impacting an asteroid.<ref name="DonQuixote" />

Ramses

Apophis is the target of the European Space Agency's proposed Ramses (Rapid Apophis Mission for Security and Safety) mission, with a launch in 2026–2028Template:Efn and rendezvous with the asteroid in 2029.<ref name="RAMSES">Template:Cite arXiv</ref><ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

Satis

In parallel with Ramses, ESA is also considering a stand-alone CubeSat misson called Satis.<ref>{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref>

CNSA

China had planned an encounter with Apophis in 2022, several years prior to the close approach in 2029. This mission, now known as Tianwen-2, would have included exploration and close study of three asteroids including an extended encounter with Apophis for close observation, and land on the asteroid 1996 FG₃ to conduct in situ sampling analysis on the surface.<ref name="XinhuaNews"/> The spacecraft launched on 28 May 2025, with a different set of targets.<ref name="sn-20230626">{{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation |CitationClass=web }}</ref><ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

Proposed deflection strategies

Template:Further Studies by NASA, ESA,<ref name="Izzo2006"/> and various research groups in addition to the Planetary Society contest teams,<ref name="aero.org"/> have described a number of proposals for deflecting Apophis or similar objects, including gravitational tractor, kinetic impact, and nuclear bomb methods.

On December 30, 2009, Anatoly Perminov, the director of the Russian Federal Space Agency, said in an interview that Roscosmos will also study designs for a possible deflection mission to Apophis.<ref name="Isachenkov2009"/>

On August 16, 2011, researchers at China's Tsinghua University proposed launching a mission to knock Apophis onto a safer course using an impactor spacecraft in a retrograde orbit, steered and powered by a solar sail. Instead of moving the asteroid on its potential resonant return to Earth, Shengping Gong and his team believe the secret is shifting the asteroid away from entering the gravitational keyhole in the first place.<ref name="ChinaSail"/>

On February 15, 2016, Sabit Saitgarayev, of the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau, announced intentions to use Russian ICBMs to target relatively small near-Earth objects. Although the report stated that likely targets would be between the 20 to 50 metres in size, it was also stated that 99942 Apophis would be an object subject to tests by the program.<ref name="TASS"/>

In October 2022, a method of mapping the inside of a potentially problematic asteroid, such as 99942 Apophis, in order to determine the best area for impact was proposed.<ref name="WP-20221021">Template:Cite news</ref>

Popular culture

In Id Software's video game Rage, the backstory involves the asteroid colliding with Earth on August 23, 2029. The asteroid almost wipes out the human race and ushers in a post-apocalyptic age.<ref name="Gamespot" /><ref name="BBC_popculture"/>

In the grand strategy video game Terra Invicta, the player can mount a scientific expedition to Apophis when it flies close to Earth in 2029.<ref name="Terra_Invicta"/>

In music, the asteroid Apophis is referred to in the song "The Profit of Doom" by gothic metal band Type O Negative on their 2007 album Dead Again. The lyrics refer to the asteroid 99942 Apophis, which at that time was considered to have a possibility of hitting Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.<ref name="BBC_popculture"/>

Notes

Template:Notelist

References

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External links

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Apophis Asteroid
Asteroid Apophis orbit from recent observations, EPSC Abstracts Vol. 6, EPSC-DPS2011-1212, 2011, EPSC-DPS Joint Meeting 2011
Diagrams and orbits of Apophis (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)
Interactive 3D gravity simulation of Apophis's 2029 Earth flyby

Risk assessment

NASA

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99942 Apophis

Contents

Discovery and naming

Physical characteristics and rotation